The BritPolls poll-of-polls aggregate for May 2026 shows Reform UK leading at 27.6%, ahead of Labour at 20.0%, the Conservatives at 18.0%, Greens at 13.8%, and Lib Dems at 12.6%. Simultaneously, Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has fallen to −44% — the worst recorded for any sitting Prime Minister at this stage of a Parliament.
UK Voting Intention Poll of Polls — May 2026
| Party | Poll of Polls | GE2024 Result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 27.6% | 14.3% | +13.3 |
| Labour | 20.0% | 33.7% | −13.7 |
| Conservatives | 18.0% | 23.7% | −5.7 |
| Greens | 13.8% | 6.8% | +7.0 |
| Lib Dems | 12.6% | 12.2% | +0.4 |
Source: BritPolls poll-of-polls composite (last 5 polls). Updated 27 May 2026. Pollsters: YouGov, Opinium, More in Common, Survation, Ipsos.
Pollster-by-Pollster Breakdown (May 2026)
All major UK pollsters are aligned on the direction of travel, though there are house effects in the precise figures. YouGov's weekly tracker, widely regarded as the benchmark, has consistently shown Reform UK above 27% through May 2026. Opinium places Reform slightly higher at 29–30%, while More in Common, which segments voters by values, shows Reform at 26–28%. Survation and Ipsos are in a similar range.
All pollsters agree on three core findings: Reform UK is in first place; Labour has fallen below 22% at every pollster; and the Conservatives are trailing in third. The Greens are consistently measured at 12–16% across the five major pollsters — well above their 6.8% GE2024 result — reflecting gains from Labour’s left. The Liberal Democrats are broadly stable at their GE2024 level of around 12–13%.
Leader Approval Ratings May 2026
| Leader | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer (Labour PM) | 19% | 63% | −44 |
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative) | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Nigel Farage (Reform UK) | 31% | 45% | −15 |
| Ed Davey (Lib Dems) | 21% | 27% | −6 |
Keir Starmer Approval at Record Low
Starmer’s net approval of −44% is the lowest figure recorded for any sitting Prime Minister at this point in a parliament in the YouGov tracker’s history. For comparison: Theresa May bottomed out at −30% during the Brexit impasse. Boris Johnson reached −35% at the height of Partygate. Starmer has surpassed both, with 19% approval against 63% disapproval in the most recent rolling composite.
The collapse began with the autumn 2024 budget decision to cut the winter fuel payment, which produced a 12-point drop in net approval in a single polling cycle. Since then, dissatisfaction over NHS waiting times, cost-of-living pressures, and perceived inaction on net migration has extended the decline. Among Conservative and Reform leaners, Starmer registers below 5% approval. Even among Labour identifiers, his approval has fallen to around 60% — low for an in-party figure.
What the Polls Mean for the 2029 General Election
Current polling, translated into MRP seat projections, suggests no party is close to a majority. Reform UK would likely win between 80 and 130 seats. Labour would be reduced to approximately 230–260 seats, losing its majority. The Conservatives might hold 150–180 seats. The Lib Dems could exceed 80. The Greens might win 10–20 seats. No two-party combination other than a Reform-Conservative arrangement would reach 326 — and those two parties are deeply incompatible ideologically and electorally.
The three years to 2029 allow for substantial polling movement. Both the Blair government (which recovered from mid-term slumps) and the Cameron government (which improved as recovery took hold) show that incumbent governments can close large poll deficits. The question for Labour is whether the structural shift — working-class voters to Reform, progressive voters to the Greens — represents a temporary reaction or a durable realignment. The 2026 local elections suggested the latter.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the UK poll of polls right now?
As of 27 May 2026, the BritPolls poll-of-polls shows Reform UK at 27.6%, Labour at 20%, Conservatives at 18%, Greens at 13.8%, and Lib Dems at 12.6%. The composite is updated from the five most recent national polls.
Which party is leading in UK polls 2026?
Reform UK has led all major UK polls continuously since late 2025. In May 2026, every major pollster — YouGov, Opinium, Survation, More in Common, Ipsos — places Reform UK in first place, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.
What does Politico’s poll of polls show for the UK?
Politico’s UK poll-of-polls tracker broadly matches the BritPolls composite, showing Reform UK in first place at 27–28%, Labour second at 19–21%, and Conservatives third at 17–19%. The methodologies differ slightly but the direction is consistent across all aggregate trackers.
Is Labour heading for defeat in 2029?
Based on current polling and MRP modelling, Labour faces the loss of its parliamentary majority. However, three years remain before the next general election must be held (by July 2029), and mid-term polling has a mixed record as a predictor of final results. The structural scale of the challenge — a two-directional squeeze from Reform and the Greens — makes recovery harder than for previous mid-term slumps.