Scottish Parliament Election 2026
May 2026 Holyrood election: SNP seeking fourth consecutive majority; Labour resurgent; Reform UK enters Scotland for first time. Full polling and seat projections.
How the Scottish Parliament election works
Scotland uses the Additional Member System (AMS). Voters have two votes: a constituency vote (73 seats, FPTP) and a regional list vote (56 seats, proportional D'Hondt system). This means the overall result is broadly proportional — parties winning many constituencies get fewer list seats to compensate. A party can win an outright majority (65+ seats) but this is harder than under Westminster FPTP. The SNP won a majority in 2011; subsequent elections in 2016 and 2021 produced SNP minority governments.
Current Polling Averages
Constituency Vote
Regional List Vote
| Party | Constituency % | List % | Projected Const. Seats | Projected List Seats | Total Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 36% | 30% | 38 | 8 | 46 |
| Labour | 29% | 27% | 21 | 13 | 34 |
| Conservative | 16% | 17% | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| Reform UK | 11% | 13% | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Greens | 6% | 8% | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Lib Dems | 5% | 5% | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Others | 3% | 3% | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Total | 100% | 103% | 73 | 46 | 119* |
Projections based on polling averages applied to 2021 constituency/list results. Seat totals are indicative — AMS seat distribution is complex and sensitive to constituency-level variation. *Rounding applies.
Key Stories Heading Into 2026
After a turbulent period — Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, the subsequent leadership churn and the SNP-Green coalition collapse — the party heads into 2026 led by John Swinney and polling in the mid-30s. This is well below their 2021 peak of 47% but still puts them as the largest party. Whether they can win a majority depends on Labour's performance in constituency seats.
Scottish Labour, largely written off after their 2015 collapse to one seat, has rebuilt under Anas Sarwar. Their 2024 Westminster performance — winning 37 Scottish seats — demonstrated real on-the-ground recovery. Polling around 29% in Holyrood polls, they are the main challengers to the SNP in key constituency seats across central Scotland. A strong result here could set up Labour for a potential return to government.
Reform UK is fielding candidates across Scotland for the first time at Holyrood. Polling around 11% — likely strongest on the list vote — they are expected to win several regional seats. Their presence complicates the Conservative picture in the North East and rural seats. If AMS translates 11% list vote into 7+ seats, it would be a significant arrival on the Scottish political scene.
The Scottish Greens ended their formal power-sharing agreement with the SNP in 2024 after disagreements over climate policy. Heading into 2026, they are running primarily on the regional list, where their 6% polling could translate into 5-7 seats. Their relationship with the SNP will be a key post-election question: co-operation, confidence and supply, or full opposition?
What the 2026 Result Means for Independence
A majority for independence parties is not guaranteed
The 2021 election produced a pro-independence majority (SNP + Greens). In 2026, that majority is not guaranteed. If SNP poll at 36% and Greens at 6%, the combined list vote of around 36-42% may not translate into a combined majority of 65+ seats. Labour and the Conservatives both oppose a second independence referendum, meaning any government without an independence majority would effectively put the issue on hold for the Parliament. Current polling suggests the result will be tight — possibly a minority SNP government requiring case-by-case support.
| Scenario | Likelihood | Independence majority? | Government outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP outperforms, Greens hold | Moderate | Yes (~67 seats) | SNP minority or SNP-Green agreement; indyref2 push resumes |
| Current polling holds | Most likely | Unlikely (58-62 seats) | SNP minority government; independence stalled this Parliament |
| Labour surge, SNP weakens | Possible | No (~52-55 seats) | SNP minority; Labour as formal opposition; constitutional reset |
| No majority for any bloc | Possible | Borderline | Uncertain; possible Lab-LD-Con pact to block SNP government |