UK Regional Polling Hub — 2026
Voting intention broken down by all 12 UK regions, May 2026. Reform UK leads 7 of 9 English regions. Labour holds London. The Lib Dems lead the South West. The devolved nations have distinct political landscapes.
All 12 Regions: Voting Intention Summary — May 2026
| Region | Leader & VI | 2nd Place | 3rd Place | Reform VI | Key Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East of England | Reform 36% | Con 21% | Labour 18% | 36% | Reform's strongest region; Farage in Clacton |
| Midlands | Reform 33% | Labour 22% | Con 20% | 33% | Reform's strongest English mainland region |
| Yorkshire & Humber | Reform 32% | Labour 29% | Con 17% | 32% | Closest Reform-Labour race; Don Valley gained |
| North East | Reform 31% | Labour 30% | Con 15% | 31% | Knife-edge; Blyth & Ashington gained by Reform |
| North of England | Reform 30% | Labour 25% | Con 16% | 30% | Red Wall heartland; Labour resilient in cities |
| South East | Reform 28% | Con 25% | Labour 18% | 28% | Con-Reform squeeze; Blue Wall Lib Dems at 16% |
| East Midlands | Reform 31% | Labour 26% | Con 19% | 31% | Boston, Skegness — Reform's original heartland |
| West Midlands | Reform 29% | Labour 26% | Con 20% | 29% | Birmingham Labour fortress; Reform strong in surrounding seats |
| South West | Lib Dems 26% | Reform 24% | Con 20% | 24% | Lib Dem stronghold; Con collapse |
| London | Labour 28% | Greens 20% | Con 17% | 15% | Reform weakest here; Green surge notable |
| Scotland | SNP 31% | Labour 25% | Con 16% | 6% | SNP hold; Labour recovering; independence ~50-50 |
| Wales | Labour 29% | Reform 21% | Con 17% | 21% | Labour holds Wales; Reform pressure rising |
| Northern Ireland | SF 29% | DUP 18% | Alliance 18% | N/A | Distinct NI party system; border poll: 47% UI |
Reform UK Strength Across England (May 2026)
Why Regional Polling Matters
Under First Past the Post, national vote share does not translate directly into seats. A party that leads in densely-packed constituencies can win far more seats than its national share suggests. Reform UK's strength is concentrated in former Labour-voting, post-industrial seats across the Midlands, North, Yorkshire and the East of England — exactly the seats Labour needs to defend in 2029.
The Liberal Democrats' strength is concentrated in affluent, pro-Remain constituencies in the South West and South East — seats they took from the Conservatives in 2024 and intend to hold under incumbency advantage. Labour faces a two-front challenge: holding off Reform in the North and Midlands while managing the Lib Dem incumbency in seats that have swung away from the Tories.
Red Wall Threat
Reform leads the East of England (36%), Midlands (33%), Yorkshire (32%) and North East (31%). These are seats Labour won in 2024 or needs to hold. A sustained Reform vote of this magnitude into 2029 would cost Labour dozens of seats and likely its majority.
Blue Wall Pressure
The Lib Dems lead the South West (26%) and run second in the South East (16%). Conservative incumbents in Blue Wall seats face a squeeze from both Reform on the right and Lib Dems on the left, making recovery extremely difficult.
London Exception
London remains Labour-held at 28%, with the Greens (20%) and Conservatives (17%) behind. Reform trails at 15% in the capital — their weakest English region by far, reflecting London's cosmopolitan, graduate-heavy electorate.
Explore: England Regions
East of England
Reform 36% — Reform's strongest region. Farage holds Clacton. Conservative collapse from 50%+ in 2019 to 21% now.
Yorkshire & the Humber
Reform 32%, Labour 29%. Don Valley gained. Sub-regional chart showing South vs West vs North Yorkshire split.
North East England
Reform 31%, Labour 30%. The knife-edge region. Blyth & Ashington gained 2024. Labour decline chart from 2010.
Midlands
Reform 33% — the strongest mainland Reform region. Labour and Con both squeezed across the Midlands belt.
North of England
Reform 30%, Labour 25%. Full Red Wall overview including the North West and Merseyside.
South East
Reform 28%, Con 25%. Blue Wall Lib Dems at 16%. Three-party squeeze makes every seat here unique.
South West
Lib Dems 26%, Reform 24%. Conservative collapse in their former rural heartland. Lib Dems defending 2024 gains.
London
Labour 28%, Greens 20%. Reform weakest in England at 15%. Mayor Khan context and inner vs outer London split.
Explore: Devolved Nations
Scotland
SNP 31%, Labour 25%, Con 16%. Independence polling ~50-50. Labour recovery in Scottish seats post-2024.
Wales
Labour 29%, Reform 21%, Con 17%. Senedd dynamics and Welsh independence context (15% support).
Northern Ireland
Sinn Féin 29%, DUP 18%, Alliance 18%. Border poll at 47% for united Ireland. Stormont power-sharing analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which region is Reform UK strongest in?
Reform UK polls highest in the East of England at 35-38%, followed by the Midlands (33%), Yorkshire (32%) and the North East (31%) as of May 2026. The East of England, which includes Clacton where Nigel Farage is MP, is Reform's clear regional stronghold.
Which party leads London polling in 2026?
Labour leads London with 28%, ahead of the Greens on 20% and Conservatives on 17%. Reform UK trails with 15% — their weakest region in England. London's cosmopolitan, graduate-heavy and ethnically diverse electorate is structurally resistant to Reform's platform.
Where are the Liberal Democrats strongest?
The Lib Dems are strongest in the South West at 26% and run a competitive second in the South East at 16%. Their Blue Wall strategy of targeting affluent, pro-Remain suburban and rural seats continues to yield results, with significant incumbency advantage in seats won in 2024.
How many English regions does Reform UK lead?
Reform UK leads in 7 of 9 English regions as of May 2026. Labour leads only in London. The Lib Dems lead in the South West. Reform is ahead in the East of England, Midlands, Yorkshire, North East, North of England, South East and East Midlands.
Does regional polling predict General Election seat outcomes?
Regional polling is a strong guide but not a precise predictor. First Past the Post means results depend heavily on how votes are distributed across individual constituencies. MRP polling, which models individual seats, provides a more granular forecast. See our MRP tracker for seat-level projections.