Conservative Party

Conservative voting intention July 2024 – May 2026. Source: composite polling average.

The Conservative Party suffered its worst General Election defeat since 1906 in July 2024, falling from 365 seats to just 121 seats and losing Downing Street after 14 years in government. The result was driven by voter exhaustion, economic dissatisfaction, and a collapse of their lead on issues such as immigration and the NHS.

Kemi Badenoch was elected leader in November 2024, succeeding Rishi Sunak. She has positioned the party on a more assertive rightward course, seeking to differentiate the Conservatives from Reform UK on culture and immigration while restoring economic credibility. Her personal approval is currently −15 net, as tracked by the leader approval polls.

By May 2026, Conservative polling has fallen to 19% — five points below their 2024 General Election vote share, though still placing them second above Labour who have collapsed to 18%. The voting intention tracker shows the party has struggled to recapture the political initiative in opposition, with most of the benefit from Labour's collapse flowing to Reform UK rather than the Conservatives.

According to Wikipedia's history of the Conservative Party, the party has been one of the dominant forces in British politics for over 180 years, winning more general elections than any other party in the democratic era. The current opposition period represents a historic nadir. The party that won 44% of the vote under Boris Johnson in 2019 is now polling at 19% — a fall of 25 percentage points in under seven years.

The Conservative path back to power is complicated by the fragmented nature of the current political landscape. Reform UK at 28% has effectively outflanked the Conservatives on the right, capturing working-class Leave voters in the Midlands and North who backed the Tories in 2019. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats hold dozens of former Conservative strongholds in rural southern England, backed by socially moderate professional voters who are not attracted by Badenoch's rightward positioning.

On the economy, the Conservatives face a credibility gap after 14 years in government ended with high inflation, squeezed public services, and slow growth. Rebuilding economic trust requires a new narrative that acknowledges past mistakes while offering a credible future programme — a difficult political task for any opposition party. The party's position on public services, particularly the NHS, also needs careful handling given that record on waiting lists under the Conservative government remains a key voter concern.

The 2029 General Election presents a formidable challenge. Under First Past the Post, the Conservatives need around 38–40% of the vote to win an outright majority. At 19%, that requires a doubling of their current support — an achievement that would require Labour to continue collapsing, Reform UK to implode, and the Lib Dems to give back most of their southern gains. None of these are impossible individually, but their combination makes a Conservative majority in 2029 a very long shot.

Key Challenges Facing the Conservatives

Video: Analysis of the question of whether the extraordinary polling collapse could trigger a snap general election — and what that would mean for the Conservative Party's recovery timeline.

The Conservative coalition has shrunk to its most elderly, southern and homeowning core. The Leave-voting working-class vote that powered Boris Johnson’s 2019 majority has largely migrated to Reform UK. Meanwhile socially moderate “Blue Wall” voters in the South have moved to the Liberal Democrats. The party is now squeezed between two threats simultaneously.