Conservative Party
Voting Intention Trend
▬ Stabilising| Date | Conservative VI | vs. GE Result | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | 24% | GE baseline | Historic defeat — 121 seats, worst result since 1906 |
| Oct 2024 | 22% | −2pts | Post-election dip, leadership contest underway |
| Nov 2024 | 22% | −2pts | Kemi Badenoch elected leader |
| Feb 2025 | 22% | −2pts | Badenoch positioning party on immigration and economy |
| May 2026 | 19% | −5pts | Squeezed hard by Reform UK at 28% -- Conservatives in second place above Labour |
About the Conservative Party
The Conservative Party suffered its worst General Election defeat since 1906 in July 2024, falling from 365 seats to just 121 seats and losing Downing Street after 14 years in government. The result was driven by voter exhaustion, economic dissatisfaction, and a collapse of their lead on issues such as immigration and the NHS.
Kemi Badenoch was elected leader in November 2024, succeeding Rishi Sunak. She has positioned the party on a more assertive rightward course, seeking to differentiate the Conservatives from Reform UK on culture and immigration while restoring economic credibility.
By May 2026, Conservative polling has fallen to 19% — five points below their 2024 General Election vote share, though still placing them second above Labour who have collapsed to 18%. The party faces a structural challenge: Reform UK's rise threatens to permanently split the right-of-centre vote, making a Conservative majority at the 2029 General Election extremely difficult without some form of accommodation.
Key Challenges Facing the Conservatives
Reform UK Competition
Reform UK polling at 28% directly threatens the Conservative vote base. Many 2019 Tory voters who switched to Reform in 2024 have not returned, particularly on immigration.
Trust on the Economy
After 14 years in government, the Conservatives still struggle to rebuild economic credibility. Labour and Reform UK both poll ahead on economic management in some surveys.
Lib Dem Threat in South
The Liberal Democrats won dozens of safe Conservative seats in 2024. Winning them back requires appealing to socially moderate voters, potentially at odds with the rightward shift.
Path to a Majority
Under First Past the Post, the Conservatives need around 38–40% to win an outright majority. At 23%, the path is long and complicated by a fragmented vote.
Who Votes Conservative?
The Conservative coalition has traditionally been anchored among older voters, homeowners, and those in rural and suburban England. Since 2024, the party has retained strength among over-65s, small business owners, and voters in southern England. However, the Leave-voting working-class demographic that backed Boris Johnson in 2019 has largely drifted toward Reform UK.