UK Weekly Polling Average

The 7-Day Rolling Average

The weekly tracker takes every published national GB voting intention poll whose fieldwork end date falls within the 7-day window ending on the reference date. It calculates the arithmetic mean for each party across all polls in that window.

This approach gives equal weight to each poll regardless of sample size. It is designed to smooth out individual pollster house effects and day-to-day variation while remaining sensitive enough to capture genuine shifts in public opinion within a two-week window.

Movement Arrows

The ▲ green up arrow indicates a party has gained percentage points compared to the previous 7-day window. The ▼ red down arrow indicates a loss. All movements are shown in percentage points (pp). A movement of less than 0.1pp is shown as unchanged.

Why Weeks Can Have Different Poll Counts

Not every pollster publishes every week. In a typical week, between three and six national polls are published. In a busy news week (Budget, by-election, major political event) there may be more. The tracker remains reliable with as few as two polls in the window, though we note the poll count alongside each weekly reading for transparency.