This Week’s Averages
7-day rolling average · week ending 15 May 2026 · 4 pollsWeek-on-Week Movement
Current week vs previous week| Party | This Week | Last Week | Change | Direction | vs GE24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 18.5% | 18.5% | 0pp | — | -15.2pp from 33.7% |
| Reform UK | 28.8% | 26.5% | +2.3pp | ▲ | +14.5pp from 14.3% |
| Conservatives | 18.5% | 18.8% | -0.3pp | ▼ | -5.2pp from 23.7% |
| Lib Dems | 13% | 12% | +1pp | ▲ | +0.8pp from 12.2% |
| Greens | 13.8% | 15.8% | -2pp | ▼ | +7.1pp from 6.7% |
| SNP | 3% | 2.8% | +0.2pp | ▲ | +0.5pp from 2.5% |
GE24 actual result: Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Reform 14.3%, LD 12.2%, Greens 6.7%, SNP 2.5%. Week ending 15 May 2026.
8-Week Trend
Historical Weekly Averages
Last 8 weeks · 7-day rolling average · based on polls in each window| Week ending | Lab % | Ref % | Con % | LD % | Grn % | SNP % | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2026 Current | 18.5% | 28.8% | 18.5% | 13% | 13.8% | 3% | 4 |
| 8 May 2026 | 18.5% | 26.5% | 18.8% | 12% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4 |
| 1 May 2026 | 18.3% | 25.7% | 18.6% | 11.9% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 7 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 18.2% | 26.5% | 17.8% | 12% | 16% | 2.8% | 6 |
| 17 Apr 2026 | 22% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 3% | 1 |
| GE24 Result (4 Jul 2024) | 33.7% | 14.3% | 23.7% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | Actual |
How the Weekly Tracker Is Calculated
The 7-Day Rolling Average
The weekly tracker takes every published national GB voting intention poll whose fieldwork end date falls within the 7-day window ending on the reference date. It calculates the arithmetic mean for each party across all polls in that window.
This approach gives equal weight to each poll regardless of sample size. It is designed to smooth out individual pollster house effects and day-to-day variation while remaining sensitive enough to capture genuine shifts in public opinion within a two-week window.
Movement Arrows
The ▲ green up arrow indicates a party has gained percentage points compared to the previous 7-day window. The ▼ red down arrow indicates a loss. All movements are shown in percentage points (pp). A movement of less than 0.1pp is shown as unchanged.
Why Weeks Can Have Different Poll Counts
Not every pollster publishes every week. In a typical week, between three and six national polls are published. In a busy news week (Budget, by-election, major political event) there may be more. The tracker remains reliable with as few as two polls in the window, though we note the poll count alongside each weekly reading for transparency.