What is the current UK weekly polling average?

The May 2026 weekly polling average shows Reform UK leading at 28%, Conservatives at 19%, Labour at 18%, Lib Dems at 13%, and Greens at 15%. The tracker averages all published polls in the preceding 7 days weighted by sample size. Weekly movement is typically 1-2 points per party, with larger shifts following major news events.

How is the BritPolls weekly tracker calculated?

The BritPolls weekly tracker uses a 7-day rolling average combining all published GB voting intention polls. Each poll is weighted by sample size. Polls older than 7 days are excluded. The result is rescaled to sum to 100%. Direction arrows show week-on-week change. House-effect adjustments are not applied to the raw tracker — the poll-of-polls page shows adjusted figures.

Why does Reform UK vary week to week in the tracker?

Weekly Reform UK figures vary between approximately 25% and 31% depending on which polls fall within the 7-day window. Techne, which publishes weekly and shows a Reform-high house effect, pulls the average up when included. Weeks containing only YouGov or Opinium data tend to show Reform lower. The trend direction is more reliable than any single week's absolute figure.

What events cause the biggest weekly shifts in UK polling?

The largest weekly polling shifts in recent history have followed events with immediate emotional impact: Partygate revelations, the September 2022 mini-budget, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II each moved polls by 2-5 points within days. More typical news cycles — parliamentary statements, policy announcements, minor controversies — move individual polls by under 1 point. Major shifts in the weekly tracker require genuinely shocking or consequential news that reaches beyond the political-media bubble.

How do weekly tracker figures differ from monthly polling averages?

Weekly tracker figures are noisier than monthly averages because they are based on fewer polls. In a typical week, 4-6 polls are published; in a typical month, 15-20. The weekly tracker is more responsive to sudden events but also more prone to distortion from outlier polls. Monthly averages smooth out outliers at the cost of slower response to real shifts. BritPolls publishes both — the weekly tracker for timeliness and the poll of polls for reliability.

Is a 7-day rolling window the correct length for a UK weekly tracker?

A 7-day window balances timeliness against stability. A 3-day window would be more responsive but highly erratic — some days see no polls published, making the average useless. A 14-day window would be smoother but would miss genuine opinion shifts during fast-moving news periods. Seven days aligns with the most common polling publication cycles (YouGov, Techne both publish approximately weekly) and is the industry standard used by most aggregators and academic polling trackers.

Weekly Poll Tracker · October 2026

UK Weekly Polling Average

7-day rolling average of all UK national polls. Updated each week. Shows current standing for all major parties and week-on-week movement. Based on 4 polls in the most recent 7-day window.

This Week’s Averages

7-day rolling average · week ending 9 October 2026 · 4 polls

Labour

29%

▲ +1.4pp vs last week

Reform UK

23.8%

▲ +0.9pp vs last week

Conservatives

19.3%

▲ +0.3pp vs last week

Lib Dems

9.8%

▼ -0.1pp vs last week

Greens

9.3%

▼ -1.6pp vs last week

SNP

2.3%

▼ -0.4pp vs last week

Week-on-Week Movement

Current week vs previous week

Party	This Week	Last Week	Change	Direction	vs GE24
Labour	29%	27.6%	+1.4pp	▲	-4.7pp from 33.7%
Reform UK	23.8%	22.9%	+0.9pp	▲	+9.5pp from 14.3%
Conservatives	19.3%	19%	+0.3pp	▲	-4.4pp from 23.7%
Lib Dems	9.8%	9.9%	-0.1pp	▼	-2.4pp from 12.2%
Greens	9.3%	10.9%	-1.6pp	▼	+2.6pp from 6.7%
SNP	2.3%	2.7%	-0.4pp	▼	-0.2pp from 2.5%

GE24 actual result: Lab 33.7%, Con 23.7%, Reform 14.3%, LD 12.2%, Greens 6.7%, SNP 2.5%. Week ending 9 October 2026.

8-Week Trend

Weekly rolling averages · last 8 weeks

Labour Reform UK Conservatives Lib Dems Greens

Historical Weekly Averages

Last 8 weeks · 7-day rolling average · based on polls in each window

Week ending	Lab %	Ref %	Con %	LD %	Grn %	SNP %	Polls
9 Oct 2026 Current	29%	23.8%	19.3%	9.8%	9.3%	2.3%	4
2 Oct 2026	27.6%	22.9%	19%	9.9%	10.9%	2.7%	7
25 Sep 2026	25.9%	23%	20.2%	10.8%	10.2%	2.6%	9
18 Sep 2026	26.5%	22.8%	19.5%	10.8%	11%	2.8%	4
GE24 Result (4 Jul 2024)	33.7%	14.3%	23.7%	12.2%	6.7%	2.5%	Actual

How the Weekly Tracker Is Calculated

The 7-Day Rolling Average

The weekly tracker takes every published national GB voting intention poll whose fieldwork end date falls within the 7-day window ending on the reference date. It calculates the arithmetic mean for each party across all polls in that window.

This approach gives equal weight to each poll regardless of sample size. It is designed to smooth out individual pollster house effects and day-to-day variation while remaining sensitive enough to capture genuine shifts in public opinion within a two-week window.

Movement Arrows

The ▲ green up arrow indicates a party has gained percentage points compared to the previous 7-day window. The ▼ red down arrow indicates a loss. All movements are shown in percentage points (pp). A movement of less than 0.1pp is shown as unchanged.

Why Weeks Can Have Different Poll Counts

Not every pollster publishes every week. In a typical week, between three and six national polls are published. In a busy news week (Budget, by-election, major political event) there may be more. The tracker remains reliable with as few as two polls in the window, though we note the poll count alongside each weekly reading for transparency.

Related Trackers

Video: Further Analysis

Video: The week-by-week story of UK polling shifts since the 2024 General Election — tracking the Reform surge and Labour collapse.