Source: YouGov/Ipsos tracker, May 2026. GB adults.
Approval Trend: 2024 – 2026
▼ Fell to −6% by May 2026Net approval = approve % minus disapprove %. Source: YouGov/Ipsos composite tracker.
Monthly Approval Data
| Month | Approve | Disapprove | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | 28% | 34% | −6 | — |
| May 2024 (pre-election) | 33% | 30% | +3 | +9 |
| Jul 2024 (post-election) | 36% | 30% | +6 | +3 |
| Sep 2024 | 37% | 31% | +6 | — |
| Jan 2025 | 38% | 33% | +5 | −1 |
| Mar 2025 | 36% | 35% | +1 | −4 |
| Jan 2026 | 34% | 37% | −3 | −4 |
| May 2026 | 32% | 38% | −6 | −3 |
Issue Trust Ratings
% of GB adults trusting Davey most on each issue. Source: YouGov, June 2026.
The Paddleboarding Effect: Viral Moment and Polling Impact
During the 2024 general election campaign, footage of Ed Davey falling from a paddleboard became one of the most shared political videos of the campaign cycle. The stunt — filmed at a seaside event in a swing constituency — was widely seen as deliberately self-deprecating.
YouGov polling after the clip went viral showed a 7-point jump in Davey’s “likeable” rating among 18–34 voters, and a 4-point rise in overall favourability. The clip cut through in a campaign dominated by Labour’s dominant polling position.
Blue Wall Strategy
The “Blue Wall” refers to historically safe Conservative seats in southern England — affluent, university-educated constituencies in Surrey, Berkshire, Hampshire and the Home Counties. These seats voted heavily Remain in 2016, and many turned against the Conservatives under Boris Johnson.
The Liberal Democrats won 72 seats at the 2024 election, their best result since 2005, with the bulk of gains coming from these Blue Wall targets. In 2026 polling, the Lib Dems still lead in many of these constituencies despite modest national vote share of around 14-16%.
| Blue Wall Region | Con 2019 | LD 2024 | LD VI (June 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey & SW London | 55% | 48% | 44% |
| Berkshire & Oxfordshire | 52% | 44% | 41% |
| Hampshire & Wiltshire | 50% | 41% | 38% |
| SW England (Devon/Somerset) | 47% | 38% | 36% |
Regional VI estimates based on MRP modelling. Source: Electoral Calculus/YouGov, June 2026.
Approval by Demographic Group
| Group | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 36% | 33% | +3 |
| 25–49 | 37% | 37% | 0 |
| 50–64 | 30% | 40% | −10 |
| 65+ | 24% | 47% | −23 |
| Men | 29% | 43% | −14 |
| Women | 35% | 34% | +1 |
| Degree-educated | 46% | 31% | +15 |
| No degree | 22% | 44% | −22 |
| Southern England | 43% | 32% | +11 |
| Northern England | 20% | 50% | −30 |
Source: YouGov demographic crosstabs, May 2026.
Liberal Democrat Voter Profile 2026
The Lib Dem voter base has been significantly reshaped by the Blue Wall strategy. The party now draws much more heavily from university-educated, southern-England homeowners than at any point since the 1990s. This creates both opportunities and risks: the profile is internally coherent but very different from the working-class northern seats the party held in the Charles Kennedy era.
| Voter Characteristic | Lib Dem share | Index vs national avg | Strategic note |
|---|---|---|---|
| University-educated | 21% | +53% | Core base; grew from ~10% among this group in 2019 |
| Southern England (non-London) | 24% | +71% | Blue Wall concentration; dominant in Surrey, Hants |
| Women 35–64 | 18% | +29% | Care issues, NHS most salient; LD strongest with this group |
| 18–34 | 17% | +21% | Younger appeal; mental health, climate resonance |
| Remain voters (2016) | 19% | +36% | EU identity still correlates; single-market rejoining |
| Over-65s | 8% | −43% | Weakest age group; Reform and Con still dominate |
| Working class (DE) | 6% | −57% | Near-minimal; Northern England LD voters very rare |
Source: YouGov voter segmentation, April 2026. National Lib Dem VI average = 14%.
Lib Dem Priority Policies: Polling Performance
The Lib Dems under Davey have concentrated their policy offer on a small number of high-polling issues: mental health, NHS reform, social care, and SEND. This “kitchen-table politics” approach contrasts with the party’s earlier positioning on constitutional reform. Polling shows the strategy has worked well in Blue Wall seats but limits appeal in areas where these issues have lower salience.
| Lib Dem Policy Pledge | Net Approval | Support | Oppose | Partisan edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mental health professional in every school | +63 | 79% | 16% | Cross-party: Labour 74%, Con 72%, Reform 58% |
| Free personal care for elderly (Scotland model) | +36 | 61% | 25% | Lib Dem most associated with this pledge |
| Guaranteed 48-hour GP appointment | +54 | 74% | 20% | NHS access most salient in Blue Wall seats |
| £8bn for social care reform | +22 | 52% | 30% | Funding source questioned; wealth tax element divisive |
| Proportional representation for elections | +14 | 51% | 37% | Low salience for most voters; enthusiast base issue |
| Rejoin EU single market eventually | +4 | 44% | 40% | Divisive nationally; very popular with Remain-identifiers |
| Cap on CEO pay ratio vs. workers | +28 | 56% | 28% | Economic justice message new to LD policy offer |
Sources: YouGov, Ipsos policy polling, 2025–2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Ed Davey current approval rating?
As of June 2026, Ed Davey has a net approval of −6%, with 32% approving and 38% disapproving. He is the least-disliked of all major party leaders — significantly ahead of Starmer (−44%), Farage (−15%), and Badenoch (−15%). His high “don’t know” figure (30%) reflects lower national profile than UK-level leaders.
Why did the paddleboarding video go viral?
Footage of Davey falling from a paddleboard during the 2024 campaign generated millions of views. Polling showed it improved his “likeable” rating by 7 points among 18–34 voters and 4 points overall, presenting him as approachable and self-deprecating. The clip became a metaphor for the Lib Dems’ “anti-establishment without the anger” positioning.
What is the Blue Wall strategy?
The Blue Wall refers to historically safe Conservative seats in southern England — affluent, university-educated constituencies in Surrey, Berkshire and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems won 72 seats in 2024, largely from these targets. 2026 polling shows the Lib Dems at 43–48% in southern counties versus their 14% national VI, a geographic concentration that makes seat-to-vote ratios unusually favourable.
Which issues do voters trust Ed Davey on?
Davey scores highest on mental health (38%), NHS reform (32%), environment and climate (30%), and social care (28%). His mental health in schools pledge polls at +63 net approval nationally and is the single most-cited reason Lib Dem voters give for backing the party. He scores lowest on immigration and defence — traditional Lib Dem weak areas.
Why is Davey’s approval worse in the North?
Ed Davey’s net approval in Northern England is −30, versus +11 in southern England. The party’s policy offer — mental health in schools, GP access, free personal care — has lower salience in areas where cost of living and economic security are the dominant concerns. Reform UK has displaced the Lib Dems as the “anti-establishment” option for many northern voters, making the north structurally very difficult for the party.
How has the Lib Dems’ vote share changed since 2024?
The Lib Dems have moved from their election result of approximately 12% in July 2024 to around 13–15% in 2026 national polling — a modest gain. Davey’s personal approval advantage over other leaders is a meaningful asset. The challenge is that at 13–15% nationally they hold 72 seats, reflecting geographic concentration: most of their support sits in constituencies they already hold, limiting growth potential unless they can convert further Conservative-to-Lib Dem swing in the South.
Related Polling Pages
Video: Further Analysis
Video: Leader approval ratings for all major UK politicians — how the public views Starmer, Farage, Badenoch, Davey and others in May 2026.