UK Regional Polling 2026: Voting Intention Across All Regions
Reform UK leads in the East Midlands, Eastern England and the South West. Labour holds London and the North West. The Conservatives lead in no region nationally. SNP dominates Scotland. Regional breakdowns show a radically fragmented political map.
Full Regional Voting Intention Table
May 2026Source: YouGov multi-wave regional tracker + MRP sub-regional estimates. May 2026. Rounded to nearest integer. Leading party in each row shown in bold.
| Region | Reform | Con | Lab | Green | Lib Dem | SNP | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Midlands | 34% | 17% | 21% | 11% | 10% | - | 7% |
| Eastern England | 33% | 19% | 19% | 13% | 10% | - | 6% |
| South West | 30% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 18% | - | 5% |
| West Midlands | 29% | 17% | 26% | 12% | 8% | - | 8% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 28% | 15% | 27% | 13% | 10% | - | 7% |
| South East | 27% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 17% | - | 6% |
| North East | 27% | 12% | 33% | 12% | 8% | - | 8% |
| North West | 25% | 14% | 31% | 14% | 9% | - | 7% |
| London | 18% | 14% | 29% | 18% | 15% | - | 6% |
| South West (Lib Dem seats) | 22% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 30% | - | 6% |
| Scotland | 18% | 11% | 22% | 7% | 6% | 29% | 7% |
| Wales | 24% | 14% | 28% | 11% | 7% | - | 16% |
Note: South West (Lib Dem seats) shown separately as Lib Dem incumbency has a substantial personal vote effect. Wales “Other” includes Plaid Cymru (approx 14%). Regional sub-samples have higher margins of error than national polls.
Reform UK Regional Strength
Reform UK leads in 6 English regions. Weakest in London (18%) and Scotland (18%) where its immigration-led message resonates less with metropolitan and Scottish voters.
Key Regional Observations
Reform UK polls at 28–34% across most of England outside London, leading in six English regions. Their support is deepest in the East Midlands and Eastern England where immigration and crime polling is also most intense. Reform is strongest in post-industrial towns that voted Leave in 2016 and Conservative in 2019.
Labour leads in the North East (33%), North West (31%), Wales (28%) and London (29%). Their London lead is driven by high minority-ethnic voter concentrations and a younger, more educated electorate. Labour’s traditional Northern working-class base is significantly more contested than at any time since the 1970s.
The Lib Dems trail nationally but in their target seats in the South West, their incumbency advantage and local brand creates effective VI of 30%+. Their 2024 general election success in rural southern constituencies — taking seats from the Conservatives — is reflected in strong sub-regional numbers where they hold MPs.
The SNP leads Scotland at 29% despite a difficult period following the departure of Nicola Sturgeon, the resignation of Humza Yousaf and ongoing scrutiny of SNP finances. Labour is the main challenger in Scotland at 22%, having won several Scottish seats at the 2024 general election. The Conservatives are weak in Scotland at just 11%.
Regional VI Comparison: Now vs. GE 2024
| Region | Leading Party 2024 | GE 2024 Lead % | Leading Party Now | Now % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Midlands | Conservatives | 26% | Reform UK | 34% | Flipped to Reform |
| Eastern England | Conservatives | 28% | Reform UK | 33% | Flipped to Reform |
| South West | Labour/Lib Dem split | - | Reform UK | 30% | Reform now leads |
| North East | Labour | 40% | Labour | 33% | Labour -7pp |
| London | Labour | 48% | Labour | 29% | Labour -19pp |
| Scotland | SNP | 29% | SNP | 29% | No change |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which party is leading in most UK regions?
Reform UK leads in six English regions as of May 2026, including the East Midlands (34%), Eastern England (33%) and South West (30%). Labour leads in three regions: the North East (33%), North West (31%) and London (29%). The SNP leads in Scotland (29%) and the Liberal Democrats lead in their target South West constituencies (30%).
How have UK regional polls changed since the 2024 general election?
The most dramatic changes since July 2024 are Reform UK flipping traditionally Conservative regions like the East Midlands and Eastern England, and Labour collapsing from 48% in London to 29%. The North East, a core Labour heartland, has seen Labour fall from 40% to 33% as Reform UK has risen to 27% in the region.
How reliable are regional polling breakdowns?
Regional sub-samples from national polls have higher margins of error than the headline national figures, typically ±4–6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level for regions with ~200 respondents. Our regional figures use a combination of multi-wave tracker data and MRP modelling to improve reliability, but they should be treated as estimates rather than precise measurements.