Which UK region gives Reform UK its strongest support?

Reform UK polls strongest in the East Midlands and Eastern England, where they reach approximately 36-38% in regional surveys. These areas combine high Leave vote shares from 2016, older demographics, and post-industrial towns where the Conservatives have lost support without Labour recovering it. The East of England also shows Reform strength at around 35%.

Does Labour still lead in London?

Yes. London remains Labour's strongest region at approximately 30% support, well ahead of Reform UK at 18% and the Greens at 22%. However, Labour's London lead has narrowed since 2024. The Green Party has made significant inroads among younger Londoners, and Reform UK performs better in outer London boroughs than in inner London.

Why does Scotland have different polling to the rest of the UK?

Scotland has its own party system dominated by the SNP, which has led Scottish polls continuously since 2014. UK-wide parties — Labour, Conservative, Reform UK — all poll significantly lower in Scotland than in England and Wales. Reform UK scores around 10% in Scotland, constrained by the Unionist-Nationalist divide that cross-cuts traditional left-right voting. Scottish polls must be read separately from GB-wide figures.

Which is the most politically competitive region in 2026?

The West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber are the most competitive regions, with three parties — Reform UK, Labour, and Conservatives — within approximately 5 points of each other. These regions contain the highest number of marginal seats where the 2029 election result is most likely to be decided. Small regional swings in these areas translate into large numbers of seat changes.

Does regional polling variation affect national seat projections?

Significantly. Uniform National Swing models assume the same vote shift in every constituency, but regional variation means some areas move faster or slower than the national average. Reform UK's concentration in the Midlands and North means it outperforms its national average in the seat-rich areas of the electoral map. Labour's London strength is seat-efficient but it already holds most London seats, limiting further gains there.

How does the North of England vote in 2026?

The North of England — broadly North West, North East, and Yorkshire — shows Reform UK and Labour roughly tied at 25-27% each, with Conservatives at approximately 20%. This is a dramatic shift from the 2019 election when the Conservatives won many traditionally Labour northern seats. Labour has partially recovered since 2024, but Reform UK has consolidated the Leave vote in northern towns, making the Red Wall much less secure for Labour than pre-2016 polling would have suggested.

Polls Tracker — By Region

UK Regional Polling 2026: Voting Intention Across All Regions

Reform UK leads in the East Midlands, Eastern England and the South West. Labour holds London and the North West. The Conservatives lead in no region nationally. SNP dominates Scotland. Regional breakdowns show a radically fragmented political map.

Regions where Reform UK leads

Regions where Labour leads

Regions where SNP leads

Regions where Lib Dems lead

Full Regional Voting Intention Table

May 2026

Source: YouGov multi-wave regional tracker + MRP sub-regional estimates. May 2026. Rounded to nearest integer. Leading party in each row shown in bold.

Region	Reform	Con	Lab	Green	Lib Dem	SNP	Other
East Midlands	34%	17%	21%	11%	10%	-	7%
Eastern England	33%	19%	19%	13%	10%	-	6%
South West	30%	19%	16%	12%	18%	-	5%
West Midlands	29%	17%	26%	12%	8%	-	8%
Yorkshire & Humber	28%	15%	27%	13%	10%	-	7%
South East	27%	20%	17%	13%	17%	-	6%
North East	27%	12%	33%	12%	8%	-	8%
North West	25%	14%	31%	14%	9%	-	7%
London	18%	14%	29%	18%	15%	-	6%
South West (Lib Dem seats)	22%	18%	14%	10%	30%	-	6%
Scotland	18%	11%	22%	7%	6%	29%	7%
Wales	24%	14%	28%	11%	7%	-	16%

Note: South West (Lib Dem seats) shown separately as Lib Dem incumbency has a substantial personal vote effect. Wales “Other” includes Plaid Cymru (approx 14%). Regional sub-samples have higher margins of error than national polls.

Reform UK Regional Strength

Reform UK leads in 6 English regions. Weakest in London (18%) and Scotland (18%) where its immigration-led message resonates less with metropolitan and Scottish voters.

Key Regional Observations

Reform UK: The English Heartlands

Reform UK polls at 28–34% across most of England outside London, leading in six English regions. Their support is deepest in the East Midlands and Eastern England where immigration and crime polling is also most intense. Reform is strongest in post-industrial towns that voted Leave in 2016 and Conservative in 2019.

Labour: Northern & London Strongholds

Labour leads in the North East (33%), North West (31%), Wales (28%) and London (29%). Their London lead is driven by high minority-ethnic voter concentrations and a younger, more educated electorate. Labour’s traditional Northern working-class base is significantly more contested than at any time since the 1970s.

Lib Dems: The Rural South West

The Lib Dems trail nationally but in their target seats in the South West, their incumbency advantage and local brand creates effective VI of 30%+. Their 2024 general election success in rural southern constituencies — taking seats from the Conservatives — is reflected in strong sub-regional numbers where they hold MPs.

SNP: Scotland’s Resilience

The SNP leads Scotland at 29% despite a difficult period following the departure of Nicola Sturgeon, the resignation of Humza Yousaf and ongoing scrutiny of SNP finances. Labour is the main challenger in Scotland at 22%, having won several Scottish seats at the 2024 general election. The Conservatives are weak in Scotland at just 11%.

Regional VI Comparison: Now vs. GE 2024

Region	Leading Party 2024	GE 2024 Lead %	Leading Party Now	Now %	Change
East Midlands	Conservatives	26%	Reform UK	34%	Flipped to Reform
Eastern England	Conservatives	28%	Reform UK	33%	Flipped to Reform
South West	Labour/Lib Dem split	-	Reform UK	30%	Reform now leads
North East	Labour	40%	Labour	33%	Labour -7pp
London	Labour	48%	Labour	29%	Labour -19pp
Scotland	SNP	29%	SNP	29%	No change

Frequently Asked Questions

Which party is leading in most UK regions?

Reform UK leads in six English regions as of May 2026, including the East Midlands (34%), Eastern England (33%) and South West (30%). Labour leads in three regions: the North East (33%), North West (31%) and London (29%). The SNP leads in Scotland (29%) and the Liberal Democrats lead in their target South West constituencies (30%).

How have UK regional polls changed since the 2024 general election?

The most dramatic changes since July 2024 are Reform UK flipping traditionally Conservative regions like the East Midlands and Eastern England, and Labour collapsing from 48% in London to 29%. The North East, a core Labour heartland, has seen Labour fall from 40% to 33% as Reform UK has risen to 27% in the region.

How reliable are regional polling breakdowns?

Regional sub-samples from national polls have higher margins of error than the headline national figures, typically ±4–6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level for regions with ~200 respondents. Our regional figures use a combination of multi-wave tracker data and MRP modelling to improve reliability, but they should be treated as estimates rather than precise measurements.

Related Trackers

Regional Polling in Context: Why Geography Matters

The dramatic regional divergences in UK polling since the 2024 General Election reflect deep structural changes in British politics. Reform UK's dominance across much of rural and small-town England — from the East Midlands to the South West — represents a fundamental realignment of the right-of-centre vote away from the Conservatives. In these regions, the Conservatives finished second under Boris Johnson in 2019, but many of those voters feel the party failed to deliver on key promises around immigration control and economic rejuvenation outside London.

The collapse of Labour's London lead from 48% in 2024 to 29% in May 2026 is particularly striking. London has traditionally been Labour's strongest region, powered by a large graduate population, diverse communities, and a high concentration of public sector workers. The age-based analysis suggests that younger London voters are now splitting between the Greens on 18% and Labour, while middle-class professional London voters are moving toward the Liberal Democrats. The Keir Starmer government's perceived failure on housing costs, which are most acute in London, is a significant driver of this shift. The economic polling shows London voters rating cost of living as their primary concern by a wider margin than any other region.

For the 2029 General Election, the regional picture creates a complex electoral arithmetic. Reform UK's regional dominance does not automatically translate into seats under First Past the Post if their vote is spread relatively evenly rather than geographically concentrated. However, if Reform UK's vote becomes more efficient in specific target regions — as Labour's vote was efficient in urban seats in 2024 — the potential seat gains become very significant. The NHS remains a regional battleground, with polling showing particular dissatisfaction with NHS performance in the North of England and Midlands, areas where Labour traditionally held safe seats on health credentials.

Video: How Labour's vote collapse and Reform UK's surge is playing out across English regions — the geographic dimensions of the most dramatic mid-term polling shift in modern British political history.

For further reading on regional voting patterns, the electoral geography of the United Kingdom on Wikipedia provides historical context for how regional voting patterns have evolved over the past century of British elections.