Projected Seats at Next General Election
MRP estimate based on May 2026 poll averages · 650 seats totalNote: MRP projections are estimates based on current polling averages. Ranges are approximate. All projections assume a uniform national swing; actual constituency outcomes will differ significantly based on local factors, candidate quality, and tactical voting. A majority requires 326 seats.
How MRP Works
MRP was developed as a way to extract constituency-level information from national polls. The process has two stages:
Stage 1: Multilevel Regression
A large poll (often 10,000 to 50,000 respondents) collects data on how people say they will vote alongside a range of demographic and geographic variables: age, sex, education, region, tenure, and so on. A statistical model is then built to estimate how each combination of characteristics relates to vote choice.
Stage 2: Post-stratification
The model is then "post-stratified" against census data. For each constituency, the actual demographic composition (known precisely from the census) is fed into the model to estimate how that specific local electorate will vote. The result is a projected vote share for every constituency, which can then be converted into a seat forecast.
The FPTP distortion
The most striking feature of MRP projections in May 2026 is the vast seat-to-vote disparity affecting Reform UK. A party on 26% nationally projects to fewer than 120 seats because its vote is relatively evenly spread across constituencies rather than concentrated where it would win. Labour, by contrast, retains geographical concentration in urban seats that insulates it from the worst effects of its vote decline.
Who Produces UK MRP Models?
YouGov
Pioneered modern UK MRP in 2017 when their model correctly projected a hung parliament. Typically publishes a campaign MRP with 50,000+ respondents.
View polls →Electoral Calculus
Long-running seat forecast model using a modified MRP approach. Publishes ongoing projections throughout the Parliament.
More in Common
Regular MRP estimates with a focus on values-based voter segmentation. Useful for understanding soft voter migration between parties.
View polls →Survation
Has produced constituency-level MRP work for major campaigns. Known for careful treatment of Scotland and Wales.
View polls →Frequently Asked Questions
What is MRP polling?
MRP stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification. It is a statistical technique that uses large poll samples (often 10,000+ respondents) combined with census data to model voting behaviour at constituency level, producing individual seat-by-seat forecasts rather than just national vote share estimates.
How many seats would each party win under current polls?
Based on current MRP modelling of May 2026 poll averages, Labour would win approximately 270–290 seats (down from 412 in 2024), Reform UK approximately 80–120 seats (up from 5), Conservatives around 140–160 seats (up from 121), and Liberal Democrats around 65–75 seats.
Which pollsters produce MRP models?
The main producers of UK MRP polling are YouGov (who pioneered the modern approach in 2017), Electoral Calculus, More in Common, and Survation. Each uses slightly different methodological choices for weighting and post-stratification.