Current Poll Average
Poll-of-polls average · May 2026Poll-of-polls average based on most recent polls from YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, and Redfield & Wilton. GE24 result: Lab 33%, Con 24%, LD 17%, Reform 14%, Greens 7%.
Voting Intention Trend
What the Polls Are Telling Us
Labour's Dramatic Decline
Labour entered government in July 2024 with 33% of the vote and a landslide majority of 172 seats. By May 2026, the party has shed fifteen percentage points and finds itself barely ahead of a party that did not exist as a serious electoral force five years ago.
Key drivers include deep dissatisfaction over the decision to cut the winter fuel allowance, failure to show tangible progress on NHS waiting lists, and a series of minor scandals that have dented Starmer's credibility. The party's core voters have not defected to the Conservatives — instead, they are either drifting to the Greens or withdrawing to "don't know".
Labour polling in detail →Reform UK's Extraordinary Rise
Reform UK's surge from 14% to 28% in under two years is one of the most rapid rises ever recorded for a non-governing party in UK polling history. Nigel Farage, despite a net approval of −20, commands total loyalty among his base and continues to drive the party's media narrative on immigration and national identity.
Reform leads all parties on immigration trust at 38%, has overtaken Labour as the poll leader at 28%, and is making inroads on economic credibility. The party's challenge ahead of a 2029 general election is converting national polling share into constituency seats under First Past the Post.
Reform UK polling in detail →Recent Polls
Most recent published polls| Pollster | Date | Lab | Ref | Con | LD | Grn | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More in Common | 12 May 2026 | 21% | 30% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 2,034 |
| YouGov | 11 May 2026 | 16% | 28% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 2,053 |
| Freshwater | 10 May 2026 | 18% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 1,500 |
| Opinium | 8 May 2026 | 19% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 16% | 1,801 |
| Find Out Now | 6 May 2026 | 16% | 25% | 20% | 11% | 20% | 1,068 |
| YouGov | 11 May 2026 | 16% | 28% | 17% | 13% | 16% | 2,053 |
| Opinium | 8 May 2026 | 19% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 16% | 1,801 |
| GE24 Result | 4 Jul 2024 | 33% | 14% | 24% | 17% | 7% | Actual |
Related Analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the latest UK voting intention polls?
As of May 2026, the poll-of-polls average shows Reform UK on 28%, Conservatives on 19%, Labour on 18%, Liberal Democrats on 13%, Greens on 15%, and SNP on 3%. Reform UK is the clear poll leader — a dramatic shift from the July 2024 general election when Labour won with 33%.
Why has Labour fallen so much in the polls?
Labour has dropped from 33% at the July 2024 general election to around 18% in May 2026 -- a collapse of 15 percentage points. Key factors include public dissatisfaction with the pace of NHS reform, cuts to the winter fuel allowance, the cost-of-living crisis, and a series of controversies around welfare policy. Keir Starmer holds a net approval rating of −35%.
Is Reform UK really challenging Labour?
Yes. Reform UK has risen from 14% at the July 2024 general election to 28% in May 2026 polls, now clearly leading Labour who have collapsed to 18%. This rise is largely driven by immigration as the defining issue for Reform voters and widespread disillusionment with both traditional governing parties. However, First Past the Post significantly complicates the translation of vote share into seats.