Scotland Polling Hub
Scottish independence polls, Holyrood 2026 results, SNP prospects and Scottish Labour's resurgence.
Scottish Independence — Current Polling
A near-exact 50/50 split
Scottish independence polling has hovered around parity since the 2014 referendum, where No won 55%–45%. Post-Brexit, Yes support rose above 50% in several polls, but has since settled back to roughly even. The lack of a clear path to a second referendum — with Westminster blocking Section 30 consent — has reduced the immediacy of the independence debate, though it remains a defining cleavage in Scottish politics.
Holyrood 2026 — Scottish Parliament Election
May 2026 — SNP largest party, no majority
The May 2026 Scottish Parliament election saw the SNP remain the largest party at Holyrood but fall short of an outright majority. John Swinney leads the SNP government in a minority administration, requiring support from other parties on key votes. Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar, made gains and is now firmly positioned as the main opposition, surging in polling ahead of the contest.
Political Context
John Swinney — First Minister
John Swinney took over as SNP leader and First Minister in 2024, following Humza Yousaf's resignation. Swinney, a long-serving SNP figure, has brought stability to the party after a turbulent period. However, governing as a minority administration requires delicate parliamentary management and has limited the SNP's legislative programme.
Nicola Sturgeon Legacy
Nicola Sturgeon dominated Scottish politics from 2014 to 2023, leading the SNP to four Holyrood victories and pushing independence firmly onto the agenda. Her resignation in February 2023, followed by her husband Peter Murrell's arrest amid an SNP finances inquiry, cast a shadow over the party. The SNP has spent considerable energy distancing itself from that period while retaining its core independence mission.
Scottish Labour's Revival
Scottish Labour, written off after its catastrophic collapse in 2015 (when the SNP swept 56 of 59 Scottish Westminster seats), has been steadily rebuilding under Anas Sarwar. The party gained seats in 2024 and has polled consistently above 25% ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election, positioning itself as the key pro-Union alternative to the SNP for voters who have grown frustrated with SNP governance.
The Independence Question
With Westminster unwilling to grant a Section 30 order and the Supreme Court ruling against a unilateral Holyrood referendum, the SNP's independence strategy has stalled. The party briefly toyed with treating a general election as a de facto referendum but walked back from that approach. The 50/50 polling on independence means the question is alive but unresolved, and is likely to remain so throughout this Holyrood parliament.
The Pro-Independence Bloc
Both the Scottish Greens and Alba Party support independence, meaning the total pro-independence vote at Holyrood typically exceeds the SNP's own vote share. The SNP-Green power-sharing agreement that sustained previous Holyrood parliaments broke down in 2024, leaving the SNP to govern alone. Alba, founded by Alex Salmond, has struggled to build a substantial base beyond a small number of activist members.