UK General Election 2029
Polls, seat projections and forecasts for the next Westminster election — due by July 2029.
Current Polls — Voting Intention (May 2026 avg.)
FPTP Warning: Votes do not equal seats
Under First Past the Post, winning 26% of the vote nationally does not translate to 26% of seats. At 28% nationally, MRP projections now suggest Reform UK could win 100-150 seats, particularly if their support is concentrating in key marginals. Labour at 18% risks losing official opposition status to the Conservatives.
Seat Projections — If GE Held Now (Jan 2026 MRP)
2024 Result vs. Current Polling
| Party | 2024 Vote | 2024 Seats | May 2026 VI | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 33% | 412 | 18% | -15 pts |
| Conservatives | 24% | 121 | 19% | -5 pts |
| Reform UK | 14% | 5 | 28% | +14 pts |
| Lib Dems | 12% | 72 | 13% | +1 pts |
| Greens | 7% | 4 | 15% | +8 pts |
| SNP | 4% | 9 | 4% | 0 pts |
Political Context
Labour in Government
Keir Starmer leads a majority government with over 410 seats. Despite holding power, Labour's vote share has collapsed historically from 33% at the 2024 peak to just 18% in May 2026 polls -- a 15-point fall, reflecting the difficulty of governing amid economic pressures and public service strain.
The Reform UK Surge
Reform UK under Nigel Farage has surged from 14% (2024) to 28% in national polls — the clear UK poll leader. FPTP still limits seat conversion, but at 28%+ Reform could win 100-150 seats. Labour's collapse to 18% means Reform could challenge for official opposition status.
Conservative Collapse
The Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch are rebuilding from their 2024 catastrophe (121 seats). Current polling at ~19% puts them in second place by vote share, narrowly above Labour at 18%. The key question is whether they can rebuild in their traditional English heartlands or whether Reform UK permanently occupies that space.
Lib Dem Resilience
The Liberal Democrats won 72 seats in 2024 on just 12% of the vote — a near-perfect example of tactical voting in their favour. At ~13% in current polls, they face the challenge of holding their newly won seats against a Conservative revival and a Labour squeeze.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next UK General Election?
The next UK General Election must be held by July 2029, five years after the 4 July 2024 election. Keir Starmer could call an early election, but with a large parliamentary majority there is no pressure to do so. Most analysts expect the election to be held in 2028 or 2029.
Who is leading in polls for the 2029 General Election?
As of May 2026, polls show Reform UK leading at 28%, Conservatives at 19% and Labour who have collapsed to 18% — down 15 points from their 33% 2024 GE result. Under FPTP, Labour retains more seats due to geographic concentration, but risks losing official opposition status to the Conservatives.
How many seats could Reform UK win at the next general election?
At current polling of 28%, MRP projections suggest Reform UK could win 100-150 seats — far fewer than proportional representation would produce. Reform's support is spread too evenly across constituencies rather than being concentrated in winnable seats, costing them dozens of seats under FPTP. This could change significantly by 2029 as the electorate shifts.
2029 Election Forecast Hub
Three 2029 Scenarios
Current polls, Labour recovery, and Reform surge — with parliament semicircle diagrams and seat tables for each. Includes “what would it take to win?” analysis for every party.
View Scenarios →Interactive Seat Calculator
Adjust each party’s vote share with sliders and see projected 2029 seat totals in real time using uniform swing from the 2024 baseline. Pre-filled with current May 2026 polls.
Try Calculator →Hung Parliament Analysis
Coalition maths, confidence-and-supply options, Labour–LibDem viability, Reform–Con feasibility and constitutional framework. Who forms the government if no party wins 326?
View Analysis →Top 50 Battleground Seats
The 50 most marginal constituencies ranked by 2024 majority size. Includes projected 2029 winner, projected majority and party battleground filter for Reform targets, Lib Dem battles and Con–Lab fights.
View Battlegrounds →