Liberal Democrats
Voting Intention Trend
▬ Broadly stable since GE| Date | Lib Dem VI | vs. GE Result | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | 12% | — | 72 seats won — best result since the 2005 parliament |
| Oct 2024 | 12% | Stable | Bedding into the new parliament |
| Feb 2025 | 13% | +1pt | Slight uptick as Labour approval falls |
| May 2026 | 13% | +1pt | Broadly holding; squeezed slightly by Green surge to 15% |
About the Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats achieved their best General Election result in decades in July 2024, winning 72 seats on just 12% of the vote — a testament to the efficiency of their vote under First Past the Post. Under Ed Davey's leadership, the party deployed a highly targeted strategy in rural and suburban English seats that had been safely Conservative for generations.
By May 2026, the Lib Dems are polling at 13% nationally — broadly at their General Election baseline, though squeezed slightly by the Green surge to 15%. The party faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining their new southern constituency base while appealing to socially liberal Labour voters disappointed with the government.
The Lib Dems hold seats that previously had majorities of 20,000 or more for the Conservatives. Defending these in 2029 will require continued dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Tories among affluent, educated southern English voters.
Key Strengths
Rural Southern England
The Lib Dems hold large swathes of rural southern England from the Cotswolds to Surrey that voted Conservative for generations.
Tactical Voting
The Lib Dems benefit from tactical voting from Remain-leaning and anti-Conservative voters in key target seats.
Local Government
A strong local government base in their new seat areas provides organisational infrastructure for the 2029 campaign.
Who Votes Lib Dem?
The modern Lib Dem voter is typically university-educated, homeowning, socially liberal, and located in rural or suburban southern England. The party attracted strong Remain voter support in 2019 and 2024, and draws voters who are dissatisfied with both major parties but are not drawn to Reform UK on the right or the Greens on the left.