Reform UK
The Reform UK Polling Surge
▲ +14pts in under 2 years| Date | Reform UK VI | vs. 2024 GE | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | 14% | — | General Election: 5 seats, 14.3% of vote. Farage wins Clacton. |
| Oct 2024 | 18% | +4pts | Labour budget backlash; Farage dominates media coverage |
| Jan 2025 | 22% | +8pts | Immigration debate intensifies; Reform second in most polls |
| Mar 2025 | 24% | +10pts | By-election gains and strong council results |
| May 2026 | 28% | +14pts | Clear poll leader -- Labour collapsed to 18%, Conservatives at 19% |
Who Votes Reform UK?
Reform UK's support base is distinctive and demographically concentrated. The party draws most strongly from working-class men without a university degree, older voters aged 50 and over, and those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum. Geographically, Reform polls particularly well in post-industrial towns across the East Midlands, North of England, and the South Coast.
Demographics
- ▶ Working-class men (non-graduates)
- ▶ Voters aged 50 and over
- ▶ 2016 Leave voters
- ▶ Former Conservative voters (2019)
- ▶ Former Labour voters in post-industrial towns
Geography
- ▶ East Midlands (strongest region)
- ▶ North East England
- ▶ East of England
- ▶ South Coast constituencies
- ▶ Post-industrial towns across Wales
Why is Reform UK Rising?
Several structural factors have driven Reform UK's surge from 14% to 26% since the 2024 General Election.
Disillusionment with Labour
Labour won the 2024 election on promises of economic change. As the government has struggled to deliver rapid visible improvements, voters who lent Labour their support have drifted toward Reform UK as a vehicle of protest.
Immigration Dominates
Immigration consistently ranks among the top issues for UK voters. Reform UK positions itself as the sole major party unambiguously committed to reducing immigration substantially, giving it a monopoly on a high-salience issue.
Farage's Media Profile
Nigel Farage remains one of the most recognised politicians in Britain. His ability to command media attention — and his 2024 General Election win in Clacton — gives Reform UK a platform few new parties ever achieve.
Left Behind Communities
Voters in post-industrial towns who backed Brexit in 2016 and then voted Conservative in 2019 feel let down by both traditional parties. Reform UK has become the preferred vehicle for voters who feel ignored by the Westminster mainstream.
Issues Reform UK Leads On
Immigration
Reform UK consistently polls as the most trusted party on immigration, often by large margins. It is the party's defining issue and primary growth driver.
Cost of Living
Among working-class voters, Reform UK has made gains as the party trusted most to address the cost-of-living squeeze through tax cuts and energy policy.
Anti-Establishment
Reform UK benefits from a broad anti-establishment sentiment. Voters who distrust all major parties disproportionately turn to Reform as a protest vehicle.