Labour Party

Labour voting intention July 2024 – May 2026. Source: composite polling average.

The Labour Party has governed the United Kingdom since winning the July 2024 General Election with a landslide 412-seat majority. Under Keir Starmer, Labour secured 33% of the vote — enough for a commanding Commons majority, though one of the lowest vote shares for any majority government in British history.

Since taking office, the government has faced severe headwinds. Voting intention polling has collapsed from 33% to 18% by May 2026 — a fall of 15 percentage points and one of the most dramatic mid-term declines in modern British political history. Labour now sits in third place behind Reform UK at 28% and the Conservatives at 19%.

On the right flank, Reform UK has captured many working-class voters in Leave-voting constituencies who backed Labour in 2024 but have since been disappointed by the pace of change on immigration and the economy. On the left, the Green Party has surged to 15%, drawing younger and more progressive Labour voters disillusioned with Starmer's centrist positioning.

Keir Starmer's personal approval rating stands at −44 net in June 2026, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the cost-of-living crisis and public services delivery. The leader approval tracker shows Starmer as the least popular of all major party leaders — a remarkable position for a sitting Prime Minister less than two years into government.

Labour was founded in 1900 and has traditionally been the party of the trade union movement, the working class, and public services. According to Wikipedia's overview of the Labour Party, the party has been in government for over 30 years of the postwar period. Its historic electoral coalition has shifted substantially over the past decade. The 2024 landslide assembled a broad anti-Conservative coalition including graduates, ethnic minority communities, urban professionals, and disaffected traditional Labour voters — a coalition now fracturing in multiple directions.

The government's domestic record has been mixed. The Employment Rights Bill delivered significant gains including stronger trade union rights and day-one unfair dismissal protection. However, welfare reform proposals reducing disability benefit payments generated a significant backbench rebellion. NHS waiting lists remain a major pressure point, with millions of patients still waiting despite Labour's pledge to clear the backlog. On the economy, the government has faced accusations of excessive caution from the left and fiscal recklessness from the right — squeezing Labour between competing narratives that are difficult to resolve.

The path back to electoral competitiveness requires Labour to address twin challenges simultaneously: rebuild trust with working-class voters in the Midlands and North who have drifted to Reform UK, while retaining urban progressive voters tempted by the Greens. The 2029 General Election will be the decisive test of whether Starmer can find that balance.

Key Issues Labour Leads On

Video: Analysis of Labour's vote collapse and Reform UK's surge in England — a breakdown of the regional and demographic shifts driving the polling movement since July 2024.

Labour’s 2024 coalition is fracturing in two directions simultaneously: younger progressive voters are moving to the Greens, while older working-class voters in Leave-voting areas drift toward Reform UK. The party retains its strongest hold in major cities and among graduates, but even these groups have shown declining loyalty.