Scottish National Party

The SNP’s 3% GB-wide figure is frequently misread as indicating a collapsing party. In reality, it reflects pure mathematics: Scotland’s electorate is approximately 8.5% of the GB total, and the SNP contests only Scottish seats. A party winning 35% of the Scottish vote — an excellent result — will record only around 3% GB-wide in polling that covers all of Great Britain.

Breaking out Scotland-specific data shows a different picture. YouGov cross-breaks from April–May 2026 show the SNP on 28–32% of Scottish Westminster voting intention. Survation’s Scotland-specific polling from the same period records 31–33%. For Holyrood constituency ballots, the SNP runs higher still at 34–38%, reflecting the different electoral context and the party’s stronger Holyrood brand.

GB vs Scotland-Only Polling: May 2026

John Swinney assumed the SNP leadership and First Ministership in May 2024, taking over from Humza Yousaf in circumstances of acute party crisis. Yousaf had resigned after losing a confidence vote following the collapse of the SNP–Green co-operation agreement. Swinney, the party’s longest-serving senior figure, was appointed to provide stability after a period of damaging internal conflict.

By May 2026, polling on Swinney’s performance shows a creditable recovery. His Scottish net approval stands at approximately −4% — modest in absolute terms but significantly better than Keir Starmer’s −28% among Scottish voters and Anas Sarwar’s −18% among Scottish Labour voters specifically. Swinney consistently outpolls his party, suggesting he is a stabilising force rather than a drag on SNP numbers.

Swinney’s core strategy has been to govern competently from Holyrood, avoid divisive independence confrontations with Westminster, and rebuild the party’s activist and councillor base ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election. Focus groups conducted by Scottish polling companies in late 2025 consistently describe him as “experienced,” “reliable,” and “not exciting but competent” — a positioning that suits the SNP’s current moment of rebuilding rather than campaigning.

Leader Approval: Scotland (May 2026)

The SNP’s fall from 48 Westminster seats to 9 at the July 2024 general election was the most dramatic collapse of any major UK party at a single election since the Liberal Democrats in 2015. Understanding why it happened is essential for assessing whether the recovery is real.

The Sturgeon factor: Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation in February 2023 and the subsequent arrest and investigation (charges were later not proceeded with) created sustained negative news over eighteen months leading into the election. The damage extended beyond Sturgeon personally to the party’s reputation for competent, ethical government.

The Labour surge in Scotland: Labour ran an effective Scottish campaign targeting SNP-held seats where the 2019 majorities were modest. The party won 37 Scottish seats, converting anti-Conservative sentiment into anti-SNP votes in areas where Labour had been uncompetitive for fifteen years.

FPTP amplification: Under first-past-the-post, a relatively modest fall in Scottish vote share from 45% to 29% was catastrophically amplified into an 81% seat loss. The same dynamic that punishes Reform UK nationally also punished the SNP in Scotland in 2024.

Despite the SNP’s Westminster losses and the party’s internal difficulties, support for Scottish independence has remained remarkably stable. Consistent polling over 2024–2026 places Yes at approximately 44–46% and No at 54–56% on a straight referendum question. This represents a roughly 50:50 position when “would nots” and “don’t knows” are redistributed proportionally.

The stability of independence polling at this level — unchanged through the Sturgeon crisis, the 2024 election loss, and two years of SNP rebuilding — suggests that support for independence is decoupled from short-term judgements about SNP government quality. It reflects a structural feature of Scottish political identity rather than a purely partisan preference.

The UK Labour government has ruled out granting a Section 30 order for a legally binding referendum in this parliament, meaning that regardless of polling numbers, no referendum will take place before 2029 at the earliest. The SNP manifesto for the 2026 Holyrood election is expected to include independence as a long-term goal rather than an immediate legislative priority.