Wales Polling Hub
Senedd 2026 results, Welsh Labour in government, Plaid Cymru opposition, Reform UK surge and Welsh independence polling. All key Wales data in one place.
Wales Westminster Voting Intention (May 2026)
Senedd 2026 — Welsh Parliament Election
May 2026 — Labour leads expanded 96-seat Senedd
The May 2026 Senedd election was the first under the new expanded 96-seat chamber (doubled from 60) using a new closed-list proportional system across 16 regions. Welsh Labour secured enough seats to lead the Welsh Government, maintaining its unbroken governing record since devolution in 1999. The new PR system gave Reform UK its first significant Senedd presence and substantially boosted the Greens. First Minister Eluned Morgan led Welsh Labour into the election.
Wales — In-Depth Pages
Senedd 2026 Polls
Full Senedd 2026 polling data: constituency and regional vote shares, seat projections for the 96-seat Welsh Parliament, regional breakdown and First Minister Eluned Morgan.
Welsh Independence Polling
22% Yes, 67% No, 11% Don't Know as of May 2026. YesCymru campaign, how Welsh independence compares to Scotland, and the demographic breakdown.
Plaid Cymru Polling
Plaid at 12% Westminster, 20% Senedd constituency, 22% regional list. Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, geographic strengths and weaknesses, and the independence position.
Welsh Labour Polling
Welsh Labour governing since 1999. 29% Westminster VI, 31% Senedd constituency. First Minister Eluned Morgan, the softening Labour vote and the Reform UK challenge.
Reform UK in Wales
Reform UK surges to 21% Westminster in Wales and ~19 Senedd seats via PR. Red Wall towns: Wrexham, Rhondda, Merthyr, Newport. The working-class Labour challenge.
Scotland — Compare
How does Wales compare to Scotland? Independence at ~50% vs 22%, Holyrood vs Senedd, SNP vs Plaid Cymru. The two nations of Celtic devolution compared.
Welsh Independence Polling (May 2026)
Wales vs Scotland: A very different independence picture
Unlike Scotland, where independence polls at roughly 50/50, Welsh independence support stands at 22% in May 2026 polling. Wales has historically had stronger economic ties with England, a longer union history (since 1536), lower Welsh-language usage outside the north and west, and no separate legal system. While support for independence has grown from single digits in the early 2010s, it remains a minority position. The YesCymru campaign is the main vehicle for Welsh independence advocacy.
First Minister: Eluned Morgan
Eluned Morgan — First Minister since August 2024
Eluned Morgan succeeded Vaughan Gething as First Minister in August 2024, becoming the first woman to lead the Welsh Government. Gething had resigned after a controversy over a campaign donation and a vote of no confidence within his own group. Morgan, a former MEP and Health Minister who is a fluent Welsh-language speaker, entered the 2026 Senedd election as the incumbent FM. Her net approval rating in Wales stood at +3% as of May 2026 — modest but positive for a government in its fourth term.
Related Pages
- Senedd 2026 — full polling and seat projections
- Welsh independence — 22% Yes vs 67% No, YesCymru
- Plaid Cymru — 12% Westminster, 22% Senedd regional
- Welsh Labour — 29% Westminster, Eluned Morgan FM
- Reform UK Wales — 21% Westminster, Senedd entry
- Scotland — Holyrood 2026 and independence polling
- General Election 2029 — Wales's Westminster seats
- UK-wide Voting Intention Tracker
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current polling in Wales in 2026?
Welsh polling in 2026 shows Welsh Labour leading Westminster voting intention at approximately 29%, followed by Reform UK at 21%, Conservatives at 19%, Plaid Cymru at 12%, and Liberal Democrats at 8%. Plaid Cymru performs better on Senedd voting intention. The 2026 Senedd elections produced no overall majority, requiring a governing arrangement between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru.
What is Welsh independence polling showing?
Support for Welsh independence stands at approximately 22% Yes in 2026 polling, significantly lower than Scottish independence support at around 45%. Support has risen from around 5% in 2010 but has plateaued in the low 20s. Young Welsh voters are more independence-supporting at around 35%, but overall the figure has not yet approached majority levels. Plaid Cymru supports independence but does not campaign primarily on it at Westminster elections.
How is Reform UK performing in Wales?
Reform UK polls at approximately 21% in Wales on Westminster voting intention in 2026, up from 14.3% nationally at the 2024 general election. The party performed strongly in the 2026 Welsh council elections and is targeting several South Wales valleys constituencies for 2029 where the Conservative vote has collapsed and Labour holds thin majorities. Reform UK entered Senedd politics for the first time in 2026, winning regional seats under the new proportional system.
How does Welsh polling diverge from UK national polling?
Wales consistently shows Labour 10–11 points higher in Welsh VI surveys than UK national polling, reflecting the stronger regional Labour brand and Eluned Morgan’s better approval ratings compared to Keir Starmer. Reform UK polls similarly to England in post-industrial South Wales but lower in Welsh-speaking and rural areas. Plaid Cymru adds a fourth significant force with no UK national equivalent. UK national poll figures should not be applied to Wales without specific Welsh data.
What issues matter most to Welsh voters in 2026?
NHS Wales performance is the single most salient issue; waiting times are longer in Wales than England and Welsh Labour faces persistent criticism for health service delivery. Cost of living ranks second, similar to England. Welsh language policy matters particularly in Welsh-speaking constituencies in Gwynedd, Ceredigion, and Carmarthenshire. Energy, flooding risk, and local environmental concerns also feature more prominently in Welsh polling than in typical UK surveys.
What would a Reform UK breakthrough in Wales mean for the 2029 general election?
Reform UK at 21% threatens Labour in several South Wales valleys seats where the Conservative vote has collapsed and Labour holds majorities under 5,000. Key targets include Caerphilly, Rhondda, Merthyr Tydfil, and Ogmore. If Reform replicates its Runcorn by-election performance in these constituencies, it could strip Labour of 4–8 Welsh seats, materially affecting the overall parliamentary arithmetic in 2029 where Labour holds a working majority in the low tens on most projections.
Sources & Further Reading
Welsh polling data is compiled from surveys by YouGov, Survation and other BPC-member firms. For authoritative analysis of Welsh electoral politics, see the Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament official website. For UK-wide devolution context, see our devolution explainer and Wales Senedd 2026 election tracker.