Wales Polling Hub
Senedd 2026 results, Welsh Labour in government, Plaid Cymru opposition, Reform UK surge and Welsh independence polling. All key Wales data in one place.
Wales Westminster Voting Intention (May 2026)
Senedd 2026 — Welsh Parliament Election
May 2026 — Labour leads expanded 96-seat Senedd
The May 2026 Senedd election was the first under the new expanded 96-seat chamber (doubled from 60) using a new closed-list proportional system across 16 regions. Welsh Labour secured enough seats to lead the Welsh Government, maintaining its unbroken governing record since devolution in 1999. The new PR system gave Reform UK its first significant Senedd presence and substantially boosted the Greens. First Minister Eluned Morgan led Welsh Labour into the election.
Wales — In-Depth Pages
Senedd 2026 Polls
Full Senedd 2026 polling data: constituency and regional vote shares, seat projections for the 96-seat Welsh Parliament, regional breakdown and First Minister Eluned Morgan.
Welsh Independence Polling
22% Yes, 67% No, 11% Don't Know as of May 2026. YesCymru campaign, how Welsh independence compares to Scotland, and the demographic breakdown.
Plaid Cymru Polling
Plaid at 12% Westminster, 20% Senedd constituency, 22% regional list. Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, geographic strengths and weaknesses, and the independence position.
Welsh Labour Polling
Welsh Labour governing since 1999. 29% Westminster VI, 31% Senedd constituency. First Minister Eluned Morgan, the softening Labour vote and the Reform UK challenge.
Reform UK in Wales
Reform UK surges to 21% Westminster in Wales and ~19 Senedd seats via PR. Red Wall towns: Wrexham, Rhondda, Merthyr, Newport. The working-class Labour challenge.
Scotland — Compare
How does Wales compare to Scotland? Independence at ~50% vs 22%, Holyrood vs Senedd, SNP vs Plaid Cymru. The two nations of Celtic devolution compared.
Welsh Independence Polling (May 2026)
Wales vs Scotland: A very different independence picture
Unlike Scotland, where independence polls at roughly 50/50, Welsh independence support stands at 22% in May 2026 polling. Wales has historically had stronger economic ties with England, a longer union history (since 1536), lower Welsh-language usage outside the north and west, and no separate legal system. While support for independence has grown from single digits in the early 2010s, it remains a minority position. The YesCymru campaign is the main vehicle for Welsh independence advocacy.
First Minister: Eluned Morgan
Eluned Morgan — First Minister since August 2024
Eluned Morgan succeeded Vaughan Gething as First Minister in August 2024, becoming the first woman to lead the Welsh Government. Gething had resigned after a controversy over a campaign donation and a vote of no confidence within his own group. Morgan, a former MEP and Health Minister who is a fluent Welsh-language speaker, entered the 2026 Senedd election as the incumbent FM. Her net approval rating in Wales stood at +3% as of May 2026 — modest but positive for a government in its fourth term.
Related Pages
- Senedd 2026 — full polling and seat projections
- Welsh independence — 22% Yes vs 67% No, YesCymru
- Plaid Cymru — 12% Westminster, 22% Senedd regional
- Welsh Labour — 29% Westminster, Eluned Morgan FM
- Reform UK Wales — 21% Westminster, Senedd entry
- Scotland — Holyrood 2026 and independence polling
- General Election 2029 — Wales's Westminster seats
- UK-wide Voting Intention Tracker