Stormont Assembly Polling
Northern Ireland Assembly seat projections based on May 2026 polling. Sinn Fein leads the 90-seat Assembly, Alliance continues to grow, and the power-sharing Executive formula faces new pressures.
Stormont Assembly: Projected Seat Share (May 2026 Polling)
Seat projections are indicative estimates based on PR-STV modelling. Actual seat counts depend on candidate strategy, vote transfers and constituency-level variation.
Stormont Assembly Polling Data Table
| Party | Designation | VI (May 2026) | 2022 Actual seats | Projected seats 2027 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | Nationalist | 28% | 27 | ~28 | +1 |
| DUP | Unionist | 22% | 25 | ~20 | −5 |
| Alliance Party | Other / Cross-community | 17% | 17 | ~16 | Flat |
| SDLP | Nationalist | 11% | 12 | ~10 | −2 |
| UUP | Unionist | 9% | 9 | ~8 | −1 |
How the Stormont Executive Works
The Northern Ireland Assembly operates under the power-sharing arrangements set out in the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement and subsequent legislation. The Assembly has 90 seats elected by the Single Transferable Vote system of Proportional Representation across 18 constituencies, each returning 5 members.
The Executive is formed through a mandatory coalition under the d'Hondt method, which allocates ministerial seats proportionally to parties based on their Assembly representation. No party can be excluded from Executive participation if they have sufficient seats, meaning power-sharing is built into the system rather than being an optional arrangement.
The posts of First Minister and Deputy First Minister are jointly elected by the Assembly from the two largest blocs. Following Sinn Fein's emergence as the largest party in 2022, Michelle O'Neill became the first republican First Minister in Northern Ireland's history — a significant milestone that reflects the demographic and electoral shift underway in the region.
D'Hondt Method
The d'Hondt method divides each party's total seats by 1, 2, 3 etc. and allocates ministerial posts in order to the highest quotients. This gives larger parties more ministers but ensures all qualifying parties receive representation in the Executive. Alliance's growth means they now consistently receive Executive posts.
Cross-Community Votes
Key Assembly votes on sensitive matters require cross-community support — either parallel consent (majority support from both designated unionists and nationalists) or a weighted majority (60% of Members including 40% each from unionist and nationalist designations). Alliance's "other" designation means it does not count in these votes.
When is the Next Assembly Election?
The most recent Northern Ireland Assembly election was held in May 2022. Under normal circumstances, the next Assembly election would be held in 2027. However, Northern Ireland has a history of early elections being triggered by the collapse of the Executive's power-sharing arrangements. The DUP boycotted the Executive from 2022 to 2024 in protest at the Northern Ireland Protocol, leaving the Assembly without a functioning government for nearly two years.
As of May 2026, the Executive is functioning with Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly as Deputy First Minister. The next Assembly election is expected in 2027 unless the Executive collapses before then.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many seats would Sinn Fein win in a Stormont election at current polling?
At 28% polling, Sinn Fein would be projected to win approximately 27–30 seats in the 90-seat Northern Ireland Assembly. The exact number depends on PR-STV vote transfers, candidate strategy and constituency-level variation.
How does Stormont power-sharing work?
Under the Good Friday Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive is formed through mandatory coalition using the d'Hondt method. Ministerial positions are allocated to parties in proportion to their Assembly seat share. The First Minister and Deputy First Minister are elected jointly by the Assembly, with the largest nationalist and unionist parties each nominating a candidate.
When is the next Stormont Assembly election?
The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 2027, five years after the May 2022 election. Elections can be called early if the power-sharing Executive collapses, as occurred in 2022–2024 during the DUP's Northern Ireland Protocol boycott.
What does Alliance Party growth mean for Stormont?
Alliance's growth to 17% significantly complicates the traditional two-bloc dynamic at Stormont. As a cross-community party designating as "other" rather than unionist or nationalist, Alliance's rise means the Assembly increasingly contains a large bloc sitting outside the traditional power-sharing formula. This raises questions about whether the current designation system adequately represents a Northern Ireland electorate that is less rigidly defined by community identity.