Economy Polling 2026
No party trusted. Labour at 19%, Conservatives 22%, Reform 17% — an unprecedented three-way near-tie on economic credibility. 64% say finances are worse under Labour. The gap between official statistics and voter sentiment is defining the 2026 political landscape.
The Historic Economic Trust Collapse — 2026
British politics in 2026 is defined by something without modern precedent: no major party commands clear public trust on economic management. The Conservatives lead at just 22%, Labour trails at 19%, Reform UK is at 17%, and 28% trust no party at all. This three-way near-tie reflects a cumulative collapse in economic credibility built across three distinct episodes: the 2022 Liz Truss mini-budget, four years of cost-of-living crisis under the Conservatives, and Labour’s October 2024 Budget which raised employer National Insurance to 15% and cut winter fuel payments for most pensioners.
The governing Labour Party faces a specific credibility paradox. Macroeconomic indicators show improvement — wage growth above inflation since mid-2023, unemployment low, CPI falling to 2.7% — yet 64% of voters say their personal finances are worse than when Labour took office in July 2024. Only 12% say they have improved. The gap between statistical recovery and felt experience is one of the defining features of the 2026 economic mood. Prices remain roughly 25% above their 2021 level even as inflation has moderated — a distinction the public feels viscerally even when economists do not emphasise it.
Key economy polling findings — 2026
- Conservatives lead economic trust at 22% — Labour 19%, Reform UK 17%
- 28% trust no party on the economy (record high “none” figure)
- 64% say finances are worse since Labour took office (Jul 2024)
- Only 12% say their financial situation has improved under Labour
- 62% say employer NI rise has made them worse off
- 18% expect the economy to improve significantly in the next 12 months
- 44% expect the economy to get worse in the next 12 months
- 65% describe the economic outlook as gloomy
Economic Trust: Historical Trend 2019–2026
The collapse of Conservative economic trust after the 2022 mini-budget was one of the fastest in post-war polling history. Labour failed to convert that collapse into a durable lead of its own — and its own Budget destroyed what advantage it had built.
| Period | Con | Lab | Reform | None | Key event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2019 | +14 | +26 | — | 17% | Corbyn era; Labour historically weak on economy |
| Jan 2021 | +32 | +22 | 1% | 20% | Vaccine bounce; Con peak post-Brexit |
| Sep 2022 | +32 | +20 | 3% | 22% | Pre-mini-budget: Con still held large lead |
| Nov 2022 | +14 | +28 | 4% | 24% | Post-mini-budget collapse: Con -18pp in 6 weeks |
| Jan 2024 | +17 | +26 | 10% | 25% | Labour leads; Reform growing under Farage |
| Nov 2024 | +19 | +22 | 14% | 26% | Labour Budget erodes lead; Reform continues rise |
| May 2026 | +22 | +19 | 17% | 28% | Three-way near-tie; “none” at record high |
% trusting each party most on economy/cost of living. YouGov composite. Con/Lab figures are share trusting each party; Reform shown as raw % (not fielded as separate party pre-2022).
The October 2024 Budget: What Voters Think
| Labour Budget policy | Support | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| Raise employer National Insurance (13.8%→15%) | 24% | 62% |
| Freeze income tax thresholds (fiscal drag) | 21% | 58% |
| Cut winter fuel payments for most pensioners | 19% | 71% |
| Raise minimum wage to £12.21/hour | 74% | 11% |
| £22bn “black hole” spending cuts | 31% | 47% |
| Windfall tax on North Sea oil & gas | 58% | 24% |
Source: YouGov, May 2026.
Budget Approval by Party Voter
Labour’s October 2024 Budget was not only opposed by opposition voters. Among Labour’s own 2024 voters, net approval of the Budget package as a whole is -11 points — a serious warning sign for a government less than 18 months into office.
| Voter group | Budget approve | Budget disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| All adults | 27% | 52% | −25 |
| 2024 Labour voters | 38% | 49% | −11 |
| 2024 Conservative voters | 11% | 81% | −70 |
| 2024 Lib Dem voters | 29% | 55% | −26 |
| 2024 Reform UK voters | 8% | 86% | −78 |
| 2024 Green voters | 31% | 47% | −16 |
Overall Budget approval net rating. YouGov, November 2024 – tracked to May 2026.
Economic Outlook: Pessimism Dominates
The pessimism gap between official statistics and voter experience is not irrational. Falling inflation does not mean falling prices. The cumulative price level since 2021 remains roughly 25% above its pre-crisis level, and many workers have not seen wages fully restore their pre-crisis purchasing power. The official GDP and inflation figures tell one story; the lived experience of every weekly shop tells another.
Who Do Voters Blame for the Economic Situation?
YouGov, May 2026. Q: “Who do you think is most responsible for the current cost of living and economic difficulties?” Single response.
Economic Trust by Party
Most trusted party on economy/cost of living. YouGov, May 2026.
No party leads by more than 3 points — unprecedented economic trust collapse across all parties.
What economic policies do voters want?
- More NHS funding: 72%
- Freeze energy bills: 68%
- Scrap two-child benefit limit: 58%
- Reduce tax burden on workers: 54%
- Government house-building investment: 52%
- Tax cuts for businesses: 29%
- More spending cuts to reduce debt: 24%
YouGov, April 2026. Voters want public spending protection and direct household support over supply-side economics.
Explore More
Cost of Living Polling
77% still struggling despite inflation at 2.7%. The personal finance picture behind the economic headlines — energy, food, rent, mortgages.
Housing Polling
74% say there is a housing crisis. Rent and mortgage costs are a central part of economic pressure for millions of households.
Welfare Polling
Labour’s PIP cuts and two-child limit decisions in polling context — opposition by demographic and party voter group.
Labour Polling
Labour at 19% economic trust — the NI rise and credibility collapse that define the party’s polling trajectory since October 2024.
Conservative Polling
22% on economic trust — how the Tories rebuilt from the mini-budget and whether that is enough to win back voters by 2029.
All Topics
Browse all polling topic deep-dives — NHS, immigration, crime, defence and more.
Which party do UK voters trust most on the economy in 2026?
No party has a clear lead. Conservatives edge ahead at 22%, Labour at 19%, Reform UK at 17%, with 28% trusting no party. This three-way near-tie is unprecedented and reflects collapsed cross-party credibility following the 2022 mini-budget, Labour’s employer NI rise, and four years of cost-of-living pressure. Cost of living polling →
How has Labour’s economic record been judged by voters?
Only 12% say their personal financial situation has improved since Labour took office in July 2024, while 64% say it has gotten worse. Labour’s employer NI rise is cited by 62% as having made them worse off. This represents one of the fastest collapses in economic credibility for a new government, contrasting sharply with official indicators showing wage growth above inflation and falling CPI.
What do UK voters think about the economic outlook?
Pessimism dominates: 44% expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, only 18% expect improvement, and 65% describe the economic outlook as gloomy. The pessimism gap between official data and voter sentiment reflects the cumulative price level — still roughly 25% above 2021 levels — which voters feel even as inflation statistics moderate. Cost of living polling →
What taxes do UK voters oppose most strongly?
Cutting winter fuel payments for most pensioners is opposed by 71%, the employer NI rise by 62%, and the freeze on income tax thresholds by 58%. The minimum wage rise to £12.21/hour is the only major Budget measure with clear majority support at 74%. This pattern — strong backing for worker pay but opposition to business cost hikes and pensioner cuts — is a consistent theme since October 2024.
Who do voters blame for the cost of living crisis?
34% primarily blame the previous Conservative government, 28% blame global factors beyond any government’s control, and 18% blame the current Labour government. Energy companies and supermarkets are cited by 12%. The blame has shifted notably since 2023, when Conservatives bore a far heavier share. Labour’s early-term decisions have begun to erode its inherited “inherited the mess” framing. Conservative polling →
What economic policies do UK voters most want in 2026?
The most supported economic interventions are more NHS funding (72%), freezing energy bills (68%), scrapping the two-child benefit limit (58%), reducing the tax burden on workers (54%), and government investment in house building (52%). Tax cuts for businesses poll at only 29% support, suggesting voters want public spending protection and direct household support over supply-side economics. Welfare polling →