Topic: Economy

Economy Polling 2026

No party trusted. Labour at 19%, Conservatives 22%, Reform 17% — an unprecedented three-way near-tie on economic credibility. 64% say finances are worse under Labour. The gap between official statistics and voter sentiment is defining the 2026 political landscape.

22%
trust Conservatives on economy
19%
trust Labour on economy
28%
trust nobody on economy
64%
finances worse under Labour

The Historic Economic Trust Collapse — 2026

British politics in 2026 is defined by something without modern precedent: no major party commands clear public trust on economic management. The Conservatives lead at just 22%, Labour trails at 19%, Reform UK is at 17%, and 28% trust no party at all. This three-way near-tie reflects a cumulative collapse in economic credibility built across three distinct episodes: the 2022 Liz Truss mini-budget, four years of cost-of-living crisis under the Conservatives, and Labour’s October 2024 Budget which raised employer National Insurance to 15% and cut winter fuel payments for most pensioners.

The governing Labour Party faces a specific credibility paradox. Macroeconomic indicators show improvement — wage growth above inflation since mid-2023, unemployment low, CPI falling to 2.7% — yet 64% of voters say their personal finances are worse than when Labour took office in July 2024. Only 12% say they have improved. The gap between statistical recovery and felt experience is one of the defining features of the 2026 economic mood. Prices remain roughly 25% above their 2021 level even as inflation has moderated — a distinction the public feels viscerally even when economists do not emphasise it.

Key economy polling findings — 2026

  • Conservatives lead economic trust at 22% — Labour 19%, Reform UK 17%
  • 28% trust no party on the economy (record high “none” figure)
  • 64% say finances are worse since Labour took office (Jul 2024)
  • Only 12% say their financial situation has improved under Labour
  • 62% say employer NI rise has made them worse off
  • 18% expect the economy to improve significantly in the next 12 months
  • 44% expect the economy to get worse in the next 12 months
  • 65% describe the economic outlook as gloomy

Economic Trust: Historical Trend 2019–2026

The collapse of Conservative economic trust after the 2022 mini-budget was one of the fastest in post-war polling history. Labour failed to convert that collapse into a durable lead of its own — and its own Budget destroyed what advantage it had built.

Period Con Lab Reform None Key event
Jan 2019 +14 +26 17% Corbyn era; Labour historically weak on economy
Jan 2021 +32 +22 1% 20% Vaccine bounce; Con peak post-Brexit
Sep 2022 +32 +20 3% 22% Pre-mini-budget: Con still held large lead
Nov 2022 +14 +28 4% 24% Post-mini-budget collapse: Con -18pp in 6 weeks
Jan 2024 +17 +26 10% 25% Labour leads; Reform growing under Farage
Nov 2024 +19 +22 14% 26% Labour Budget erodes lead; Reform continues rise
May 2026 +22 +19 17% 28% Three-way near-tie; “none” at record high

% trusting each party most on economy/cost of living. YouGov composite. Con/Lab figures are share trusting each party; Reform shown as raw % (not fielded as separate party pre-2022).

The October 2024 Budget: What Voters Think

Labour Budget policy Support Oppose
Raise employer National Insurance (13.8%→15%) 24% 62%
Freeze income tax thresholds (fiscal drag) 21% 58%
Cut winter fuel payments for most pensioners 19% 71%
Raise minimum wage to £12.21/hour 74% 11%
£22bn “black hole” spending cuts 31% 47%
Windfall tax on North Sea oil & gas 58% 24%

Source: YouGov, May 2026.

Budget Approval by Party Voter

Labour’s October 2024 Budget was not only opposed by opposition voters. Among Labour’s own 2024 voters, net approval of the Budget package as a whole is -11 points — a serious warning sign for a government less than 18 months into office.

Voter group Budget approve Budget disapprove Net
All adults 27% 52% −25
2024 Labour voters 38% 49% −11
2024 Conservative voters 11% 81% −70
2024 Lib Dem voters 29% 55% −26
2024 Reform UK voters 8% 86% −78
2024 Green voters 31% 47% −16

Overall Budget approval net rating. YouGov, November 2024 – tracked to May 2026.

Economic Outlook: Pessimism Dominates

18%
expect economy to improve in next 12 months
44%
expect economy to get worse
65%
describe economic outlook as gloomy
38%
have no strong view on 12-month outlook

The pessimism gap between official statistics and voter experience is not irrational. Falling inflation does not mean falling prices. The cumulative price level since 2021 remains roughly 25% above its pre-crisis level, and many workers have not seen wages fully restore their pre-crisis purchasing power. The official GDP and inflation figures tell one story; the lived experience of every weekly shop tells another.

Who Do Voters Blame for the Economic Situation?

The previous Conservative government (2010–2024) 34%
Global factors beyond any government’s control 28%
The current Labour government 18%
Energy companies and supermarkets 12%
The Bank of England / interest rate decisions 5%
Other / don’t know 3%

YouGov, May 2026. Q: “Who do you think is most responsible for the current cost of living and economic difficulties?” Single response.

Economic Trust by Party

Conservatives 22%
Labour 19%
Reform UK 17%
Lib Dems 8%
Greens 6%
None / DK 28%

Most trusted party on economy/cost of living. YouGov, May 2026.

No party leads by more than 3 points — unprecedented economic trust collapse across all parties.

What economic policies do voters want?

  • More NHS funding: 72%
  • Freeze energy bills: 68%
  • Scrap two-child benefit limit: 58%
  • Reduce tax burden on workers: 54%
  • Government house-building investment: 52%
  • Tax cuts for businesses: 29%
  • More spending cuts to reduce debt: 24%

YouGov, April 2026. Voters want public spending protection and direct household support over supply-side economics.

Explore More

Which party do UK voters trust most on the economy in 2026?

No party has a clear lead. Conservatives edge ahead at 22%, Labour at 19%, Reform UK at 17%, with 28% trusting no party. This three-way near-tie is unprecedented and reflects collapsed cross-party credibility following the 2022 mini-budget, Labour’s employer NI rise, and four years of cost-of-living pressure. Cost of living polling →

How has Labour’s economic record been judged by voters?

Only 12% say their personal financial situation has improved since Labour took office in July 2024, while 64% say it has gotten worse. Labour’s employer NI rise is cited by 62% as having made them worse off. This represents one of the fastest collapses in economic credibility for a new government, contrasting sharply with official indicators showing wage growth above inflation and falling CPI.

What do UK voters think about the economic outlook?

Pessimism dominates: 44% expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, only 18% expect improvement, and 65% describe the economic outlook as gloomy. The pessimism gap between official data and voter sentiment reflects the cumulative price level — still roughly 25% above 2021 levels — which voters feel even as inflation statistics moderate. Cost of living polling →

What taxes do UK voters oppose most strongly?

Cutting winter fuel payments for most pensioners is opposed by 71%, the employer NI rise by 62%, and the freeze on income tax thresholds by 58%. The minimum wage rise to £12.21/hour is the only major Budget measure with clear majority support at 74%. This pattern — strong backing for worker pay but opposition to business cost hikes and pensioner cuts — is a consistent theme since October 2024.

Who do voters blame for the cost of living crisis?

34% primarily blame the previous Conservative government, 28% blame global factors beyond any government’s control, and 18% blame the current Labour government. Energy companies and supermarkets are cited by 12%. The blame has shifted notably since 2023, when Conservatives bore a far heavier share. Labour’s early-term decisions have begun to erode its inherited “inherited the mess” framing. Conservative polling →

What economic policies do UK voters most want in 2026?

The most supported economic interventions are more NHS funding (72%), freezing energy bills (68%), scrapping the two-child benefit limit (58%), reducing the tax burden on workers (54%), and government investment in house building (52%). Tax cuts for businesses poll at only 29% support, suggesting voters want public spending protection and direct household support over supply-side economics. Welfare polling →

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Voting Intention Reform UK26.4% Labour17.8% Con18.4% Greens16% Lib Dems12.6% Starmer Approval Approve23% Disapprove67% VI Tracker Leader Approval GE2029 Forecast Reform UK Rise Latest Analysis