Eight separate UK opinion polls were published in the first three weeks of May 2026. The picture across all of them is consistent: Reform UK leads British politics at 25–30%, Labour remains in collapse at 15–21%, and the Conservatives are recovering very slightly at 17–20%. Here is the complete pollster-by-pollster breakdown for May 2026, plus the BritPolls poll-of-polls average.
Average of 8 polls conducted 1–18 May 2026. All figures rounded to nearest whole number. SNP 3%, Others 7%.
All May 2026 UK Opinion Polls: Pollster by Pollster
| Date | Pollster | Sample | Reform | Con | Lab | Grn | LD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May | YouGov | 2,356 | 25% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 14% |
| 15 May | Techne | 1,639 | 29% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 12% |
| 13 May | Find Out Now | 2,012 | 25% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 13% |
| 12 May | More in Common | 2,088 | 30% | 19% | 21% | 11% | 14% |
| 11 May | YouGov | 2,201 | 28% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 13% |
| 10 May | Freshwater Strategy | 1,543 | 29% | 20% | 18% | 12% | 14% |
| 8 May | Opinium | 2,003 | 28% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 11% |
| 6 May | Find Out Now | 2,156 | 25% | 20% | 16% | 20% | 11% |
All figures are GB-wide voting intention. SNP/Plaid/others omitted from table for space. Source: individual pollster publications, compiled by BritPolls.
What the May 2026 UK Polls Tell Us
Reform UK: Consistent Lead, But Range Is Wide
The most striking feature of May 2026 UK polling is the consistency of Reform UK’s lead across all pollsters. Every single poll conducted this month places Reform UK first. The range — 25% to 30% — reflects genuine methodological differences between pollsters rather than any underlying volatility. YouGov’s online panel tends to show Reform towards the lower end of estimates; telephone-assisted polls and MRP models trend higher. The BritPolls poll-of-polls average of 27% represents the best single-point estimate across all methodologies.
Notably, Reform UK’s May 2026 polling performance closely mirrors its equivalent vote share in the May 2026 local elections, where the party took 28% of votes cast across all contested areas. This alignment between voting intention polls and actual ballot box results — rare in British politics, where local elections typically show different patterns to general election polling — is a strong signal that Reform’s support is real and geographically broad rather than concentrated in areas that happened to vote in the locals.
Labour: Floor Not Yet Found
Labour’s range in May 2026 polls — 15% to 21% — is extremely wide for a governing party. The high end (More in Common at 21%) and low end (Find Out Now at 15%) differ by six percentage points, which is methodologically significant. The divergence reflects genuine uncertainty about how to weight and model Labour voters who may be soft-supporters rather than committed voters. The Keir Starmer approval rating at -35% is consistent across all pollsters, suggesting Labour’s polling difficulties are structural rather than random noise.
Labour’s position is particularly alarming in the context of the two-directional squeeze: Reform UK is taking voters to the right, particularly in the Midlands and North, while the Greens are taking voters to the left in university cities and London. No single May 2026 poll shows Labour above 21%, which compares to 33.7% at the July 2024 general election.
Conservatives: Tentative Floor at 17–20%
The Conservatives show a narrower range in May 2026 polls: 17% to 20%. Under Kemi Badenoch, the party appears to have found a partial floor among older, southern homeowner voters who are not attracted to Reform UK and remain broadly conservative on cultural issues. The local election results confirmed this pattern: Conservatives held many of their remaining southern councils while losing further ground to Reform in the North and Midlands.
Greens and Lib Dems: Both Benefiting from Four-Party Split
The Greens show the widest range of any established party: 11% to 20%. Find Out Now’s 20% figure would be historically extraordinary; YouGov’s 15% is already at record highs. The average of around 15% represents a huge leap from the Greens’ 6.7% at the 2024 general election. The Liberal Democrats hold steadily at 11–14%, reinforcing their position as the primary progressive alternative in southern suburban and rural seats where Labour has collapsed.
Pollster House Effects in May 2026
The variance between pollsters is one of the most important features of the current UK polling landscape. Understanding house effects helps interpret individual poll results:
| Pollster | Reform UK bias | Labour bias | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Low end | Mid | MRP pioneer; large sample; historically accurate |
| More in Common | High end | High end | Tends to show more polarised 4-party result |
| Techne | High end | Low end | Online panel; showed highest Reform VI in May |
| Opinium | Mid | Mid-high | Consistent methodology; mid-range across parties |
Frequently Asked Questions
What do UK opinion polls show in May 2026?
UK opinion polls in May 2026 show Reform UK leading with 25–30% across all pollsters. The poll-of-polls average is 27% for Reform UK, 18% Conservatives, 17% Labour, 15% Greens, 13% Lib Dems, 3% SNP. Every May 2026 poll places Reform UK first — a consistent and historic finding.
Why do different pollsters show different results in May 2026?
Methodological differences account for the wide range. YouGov uses a large online panel with turnout weighting that tends to pull Reform UK estimates towards the lower end. Techne and More in Common use different weighting approaches that tend to produce higher Reform estimates. The “house effect” of each pollster has been consistent: the relative ordering of pollsters rarely changes even as the absolute numbers move.
How many seats would current UK polls translate into at a general election?
Under MRP modelling, current May 2026 polling averages would translate to approximately: Reform UK 100–130 seats, Labour 230–260, Conservatives 150–180, Lib Dems 70–90, Greens 8–15. No combination of two parties would reach the 326 seats needed for a majority, making a hung parliament the most likely outcome. See our 2029 General Election forecast.
What is the most reliable UK poll tracker for May 2026?
The BritPolls voting intention tracker aggregates all publicly available UK polls into a poll-of-polls average, updated weekly. Aggregating multiple polls reduces the impact of individual house effects and provides a more stable estimate of the underlying state of public opinion.