Pollster Profile

YouGov: UK Voting Intention Tracker & Methodology

YouGov is the United Kingdom’s most active voting intention pollster. The company publishes voting intention data weekly — sometimes multiple times per week during periods of political intensity — making it the primary source for the UK’s ongoing political polling average.

Founded in 2000 by Nadhim Zahawi and Stephan Shakespeare, YouGov pioneered online polling in the UK at a time when telephone polling dominated. Today it operates the UK’s largest online research panel, with over 2 million registered members, and runs polls across more than 50 countries.

YouGov methodology

YouGov’s voting intention surveys follow a consistent five-step process:

1. Panel recruitment: Respondents are recruited from YouGov’s panel via email or in-app invitation. Panel members are not paid per survey but accumulate points redeemable for vouchers, which incentivises engagement without creating the “professional respondent” problem seen in some panels.
2. Sample selection: A random sample is drawn, stratified by age, gender, and region to ensure broad demographic coverage before weighting is applied.
3. Fieldwork: Typically runs for three to five days. Standard voting intention samples are 1,600–2,000 GB adults. More complex surveys may run longer or use larger samples.
4. Weighting: Raw data is weighted by age, gender, region, education level, and 2024 General Election vote recall. The vote recall weight is the most politically significant: it anchors the weighted sample to the distribution of the actual 2024 electorate, preventing over-representation of late-deciding Labour voters who may now say they always backed Labour.
5. Publication: Results are published with full methodology notes, data tables, and crossbreaks including age, gender, region, 2024 vote, and social grade. All tables are uploaded to the BPC data archive within two working days.

YouGov May 2026 voting intention figures

Source: YouGov voting intention tracker, May 2026. All figures rounded to nearest percent. GB adults.

YouGov accuracy record at UK general elections

YouGov’s accuracy at UK elections has varied significantly. The firm’s 2017 MRP model is its most celebrated prediction; its 2015 performance was, like most pollsters that year, poor.

YouGov MRP: the 2017 breakthrough

YouGov’s 2017 MRP model deserves specific attention because it was a turning point in UK political polling. Published five days before the 2017 general election, the model predicted a hung parliament when virtually every other pollster and political commentator expected a substantial Conservative majority under Theresa May. The hung parliament materialised.

The 2017 MRP worked because it exploited the large sample and constituency-level modelling to identify that Conservative support was geographically concentrated in safe seats rather than spread efficiently across marginals — and that Labour was performing unusually strongly among younger voters who were more geographically dispersed. A national swing calculation would have missed this.

Since 2017, YouGov has produced MRP models for every major UK election and by-election cycle. The MRP tracker shows all published UK MRP projections including YouGov’s latest seat estimates.

YouGov house effects

YouGov tends to produce slightly higher figures for Reform UK compared to some telephone-adjacent pollsters such as Ipsos. This is likely related to differences in panel composition: YouGov’s large self-recruited panel may over-represent certain demographic groups that are more sympathetic to insurgent parties. Their figures also tend to run slightly higher for Labour than firms such as Redfield & Wilton or Techne, reflecting different weighting approaches.

Overall, YouGov sits close to the centre of the UK polling distribution. They are neither consistently the most Reform-friendly nor the most Labour-friendly firm. Always compare YouGov figures with other pollsters before drawing firm conclusions about the level of support for any party. See the full methodology page for how we account for these effects in the cross-firm average.

YouGov sub-group analysis

One of YouGov’s most valuable features is the depth of sub-group data published with each survey. Age breakdowns consistently show dramatic differences in party support: in May 2026, YouGov data indicates that Reform UK leads comfortably among voters aged 50 and above, while Labour leads clearly among voters aged 18–34. The Conservatives remain relatively weak across all age groups compared to their 2019 position.

Regional breakdowns show Labour strength in London and major cities, Reform UK strength in the East Midlands, Eastern England, and parts of the North, and Lib Dem strength in the South West and suburban South East constituencies. These regional patterns matter enormously under first-past-the-post, which is why constituency-level MRP models are so important for translating national VI figures into seat projections.

YouGov issue polling and leadership approval

Beyond voting intention, YouGov publishes regular data on leader approval, party issue ratings, and public attitudes to specific policy questions. Their monthly leadership tracker showing net approval for Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch, and Nigel Farage is one of the most closely watched political data series in the UK.

In May 2026, YouGov data shows Nigel Farage with a net approval rating of approximately +5 among all adults — the highest of any major party leader. Keir Starmer is on approximately −25, reflecting the sharp decline in satisfaction with the Labour government since the 2024 election. Kemi Badenoch sits at approximately −10, an improvement from the lows recorded immediately after the Conservative leadership election but still negative territory. All three figures are tracked on our leader approval page.

YouGov also tracks “best party on key issues,” showing which party voters trust most on the economy, NHS, immigration, and cost of living. These issue ratings diverge significantly from voting intention: Reform UK leads on immigration by a wide margin in YouGov data, while Labour leads on the NHS despite poor overall satisfaction with the government. The Conservatives trail on virtually every tracked issue for the first time in recent decades.

YouGov vs. other pollsters: key differences

Compared to Redfield & Wilton and Techne, YouGov tends to record somewhat lower figures for Reform UK and somewhat higher figures for Labour. Compared to Ipsos, YouGov shows similar Labour and Conservative figures but slightly higher Reform numbers. The differences are generally within 2–4 points for the major parties, which is consistent with documented house effects across the market.

YouGov’s large panel and relatively transparent methodology make them the most commonly cited single pollster in UK political analysis. However, as with all polling, the most reliable picture comes from tracking the cross-firm average rather than any individual firm.

How to use YouGov data

YouGov’s weekly output makes them the backbone of the UK polling average. For the most reliable picture of current UK public opinion, track YouGov’s rolling figures in the context of the full cross-firm average on our voting intention tracker. For seat projections, see the MRP tracker. For YouGov leader approval and issues data, see the leader approval page. Our methodology page explains how YouGov data is weighted in the cross-firm average.