All approval figures on this page are Scotland-only polling, not GB-wide. Sarwar polls as the Scottish Labour leader and is assessed in a Scottish context ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election.
Source: Savanta / YouGov Scotland tracker, May 2026. Scottish adults only.
Anas Sarwar leads every major polling metric in Scotland: +12 net approval vs John Swinney at −5, and Scottish Labour at 33% VI vs SNP at 31%. For the first time since around 2014, Scottish Labour leads the SNP in Scotland.
Approval Trend: February 2021 – May 2026
▲ Consistent rise since 2024 GENet approval = approve % minus disapprove %. Scotland-only polling. Source: Savanta / YouGov Scotland.
Monthly Approval Data (Scotland)
| Month | Approve | Disapprove | Net | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2021 | 34% | 36% | −2 | Takes Scottish Labour leadership; unknown to many Scottish voters |
| May 2021 | 36% | 35% | +1 | Holyrood election: Scottish Lab holds 24 seats; modest improvement |
| Jul 2022 | 38% | 35% | +3 | Profile rises as SNP approval falls after Sturgeon resignation |
| Jan 2024 | 42% | 36% | +6 | Scottish Labour momentum builds; by-election wins |
| Jul 2024 | 47% | 37% | +10 | 37 seats in Scottish GE results; massive night for Scottish Labour |
| Oct 2024 | 48% | 37% | +11 | Labour Budget helps Sarwar maintain momentum |
| Mar 2025 | 49% | 38% | +11 | Scottish Labour first polls ahead of SNP in VI; historic milestone |
| May 2026 | 50% | 38% | +12 | Holyrood campaign begins; Sarwar positioned as potential First Minister |
Issue Trust Ratings (Scotland)
% of Scottish voters trusting each party on each issue| Issue | Sarwar (Scottish Lab) | Swinney (SNP) | Scottish Cons | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHS Scotland | 34% | 28% | 16% | Scottish Lab lead |
| Drug Deaths & Addiction | 36% | 21% | 18% | Scottish Lab dominant |
| Economy & Jobs | 33% | 26% | 22% | Scottish Lab lead |
| Education & Schools | 32% | 29% | 18% | Scottish Lab narrow lead |
| Housing (Scotland) | 31% | 27% | 18% | Scottish Lab lead |
| Cost of Living | 28% | 24% | 29% | Three-way contest |
| Independence / Constitution | 8% | 47% | 12% | SNP dominant (Yes voters) |
Source: Savanta Scotland tracker, May 2026. Scottish adults only.
2024 General Election: Scotland Results
▲ Historic result for Scottish Labour| Party | Seats 2019 | Seats 2024 | Change | Vote share 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Labour | 1 | 37 | +36 | 35.8% |
| SNP | 48 | 9 | −39 | 29.9% |
| Scottish Conservative | 6 | 5 | −1 | 12.7% |
| Scottish Lib Dem | 4 | 6 | +2 | 9.7% |
Source: UK Electoral Commission, July 2024.
Approval by Demographic Group (Scotland)
By Age Group
Strongest with older voters; an inversion from the SNP’s pattern of strength among younger Scots.
By Constitutional Stance
Sarwar leads heavily among No voters and undecideds; trails badly with committed independence supporters.
About Anas Sarwar
Anas Sarwar has led Scottish Labour since February 2021, becoming the first Muslim leader of a major UK political party. He is the MSP for Glasgow and previously served as MP for Glasgow Central from 2010 to 2015. His father Mohammad Sarwar was the first Muslim MP elected to the UK Parliament in 1997 and later served as Governor of Punjab.
When Sarwar took the Scottish Labour leadership in 2021, the party was a distant third in Scotland, polling in the low twenties and widely regarded as a spent force after the SNP’s domination of Scottish politics since 2015. His consistent and disciplined leadership, combined with the SNP’s internal difficulties following the resignations of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf, created the conditions for a remarkable recovery.
The 2024 UK general election was the defining moment of Sarwar’s leadership. Scottish Labour won 37 seats — up from just 1 in 2019 and the party’s best Scottish result since 2001 — largely at the SNP’s expense. Sarwar led a campaign focused almost entirely on the NHS, drug deaths, economic renewal and breaking the independence deadlock, deliberately positioning Scottish Labour as the party of practical change rather than constitutional argument.
By May 2026, with Holyrood elections approaching, Sarwar holds a net approval of +12 in Scotland — the highest of any major Scottish party leader — and Scottish Labour leads the SNP in voting intention polls for the first time since around 2014. The prospect of Sarwar becoming Scotland’s first First Minister from a non-SNP party since 2011 has become a realistic scenario, though the Holyrood voting system and coalition dynamics make the outcome uncertain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Anas Sarwar’s approval rating in Scotland?
As of May 2026, Sarwar has a net approval of +12 in Scotland-only polling, with 50% approving and 38% disapproving. This is the highest approval of any major Scottish party leader.
How did Scottish Labour do at the 2024 general election?
Scottish Labour won 37 seats in Scotland, up from just 1 in 2019. This was the party’s best Scottish result since 2001 and came almost entirely at the expense of the SNP, which fell from 48 to 9 seats.
Could Sarwar become Scottish First Minister?
It is a realistic scenario. Scottish Labour leads the SNP in both VI and approval ahead of Holyrood 2026. If Labour wins the most seats, Sarwar could seek to form a government, potentially with Lib Dem or Green support.
Is Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP?
Yes, for the first time since around 2014. Scottish Labour leads 33% to 31% in Holyrood constituency vote polling and Sarwar leads Swinney on approval (+12 vs −5). This is the most competitive race in Scottish politics in over a decade.