Source: Survation/YouGov Scotland tracker, May 2026. Scottish adults only.
Approval Trend: May 2024 – May 2026
↔ Broadly stableScotland-only polling. Source: Survation, Ipsos Scotland, YouGov Scotland composite.
Holyrood 2026: Scottish Parliament Vote Intention
Holyrood constituency vote intention. Source: Survation/YouGov Scotland, April 2026.
Holyrood 2026: Possible Outcomes
The 2026 Holyrood election uses the Additional Member System (AMS), which combines first-past-the-post constituency seats with regional list seats. A party that dominates constituencies gains fewer list seats, meaning large leads do not translate to proportionally large seat majorities. This is why the SNP, despite leading VI, may still lose their effective governing majority.
| Scenario | Seats (est.) | Majority? | Government outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP 34%, Lab 28% (current polls) | SNP ~58, Lab ~40, Con ~22, Grn ~17 | No (65 needed) | SNP minority or Lab-led coalition |
| SNP 37%, Lab 26% (slight SNP recovery) | SNP ~64, Lab ~35, Con ~21, Grn ~15 | Narrow SNP majority | SNP minority government (just) |
| SNP 30%, Lab 32% (Lab surge) | Lab ~50, SNP ~48, Con ~22, Grn ~19 | No | Scottish Labour minority or Lab+Grn coalition |
| SNP 34%, Lab 28%, Grn 12% (current) | SNP+Grn combined ~75 | Yes (if cooperative) | SNP-Green arrangement (informal) |
Seat projections are illustrative based on uniform swing modelling. AMS introduces significant variation — list seat allocations are volatile. Source: Electoral Calculus Scotland model, March 2026.
Scottish Independence Polling
Independence support has remained within the 47–51% Yes range since 2021 — a statistical tie without decisive movement in either direction. The SNP’s ability to argue for a new referendum depends partly on achieving a clear Holyrood mandate.
| Group | % Yes | % No | Independence motivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18–34 | 58% | 42% | Generational; NHS Scotland, housing, EU membership |
| 35–54 | 51% | 49% | Economically mixed; Brexit impact more felt |
| 55+ | 40% | 60% | Pension concerns; economic stability preferred |
| Central Belt | 54% | 46% | Urban Yes stronghold; 2014 result reversed here |
| Rural Scotland | 42% | 58% | Traditional Unionist/Conservative areas |
| 2014 Yes voters | 89% | 11% | Highly loyal to independence goal |
| 2014 No voters | 14% | 86% | Few converts; key swing group |
Source: Survation Scotland tracker, May 2026. Excluding don’t knows.
Issue Trust in Scotland
| Issue | SNP / Swinney | Scottish Labour | Scottish Conservatives | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish independence | 54% | 8% | 20% | SNP dominates; Con = Unionist voters |
| NHS Scotland | 28% | 34% | 18% | Labour now leads; SNP record under scrutiny |
| Education & schools | 26% | 32% | 20% | SNP exam results controversies have cost trust |
| Economy | 24% | 30% | 26% | Three-way near-tie; no clear winner |
| Housing | 22% | 30% | 18% | Rent freeze lifted; Housing Bill contested |
| Police & justice | 30% | 28% | 24% | SNP slight lead; Police Scotland performance debated |
| Climate & energy | 36% | 26% | 14% | SNP renewable energy record still positive |
Source: Survation Scotland issues tracker, April 2026.
Approval by Group (Scotland-only)
| Group | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18–34 | 42% | 38% | +4 |
| 35–54 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| 55+ | 33% | 48% | −15 |
| Yes voters (2014) | 60% | 28% | +32 |
| No voters (2014) | 18% | 62% | −44 |
| Central Belt | 42% | 40% | +2 |
| Rural Scotland | 32% | 48% | −16 |
Source: Survation Scotland crosstabs, May 2026.
Leaders in Scotland
Net approval, Scotland-only polling. Source: YouGov/Survation Scotland, May 2026.
SNP in Government: Record
- In government since 2007 (19 years)
- Majority 2011–2016
- Green deal (Bute House) 2021–2024
- NHS Scotland waiting times: at record highs
- Exam results controversies 2020
- Ferries fiasco: £400m+ overrun
- Renewable energy: positive record
Related Pages
Holyrood 2026: The Challenge Ahead
The Holyrood election in May 2026 is the defining test for Swinney’s leadership and the SNP’s grip on Scottish politics. The party has governed Scotland since 2007 — first as a minority, then as a majority from 2011, then in an arrangement with the Greens from 2021.
Scottish Labour, under Anas Sarwar, has made significant gains. Polls consistently show the SNP losing their majority, with a possible hung parliament. A Labour-led administration in Holyrood, alongside the Labour government at Westminster, would be a historic shift in Scottish politics and the most significant setback for the independence movement since 2014.
Swinney’s pitch centres on competence, experience and the argument that only the SNP can stand up for Scotland’s interests at Westminster. His approval — at -5 — is modest but significantly better than the Westminster party leaders’ ratings when polled in Scotland.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is John Swinney approval rating in Scotland?
As of June 2026, John Swinney has a net approval of -5% in Scotland, with 38% approving and 43% disapproving. This is a modest but genuine improvement from when he took over in May 2024 (net -12 initially). His approval is best among younger Scots and Yes voters, and weakest among over-55s and former No voters.
How is the SNP performing ahead of Holyrood 2026?
Polls in early 2026 show the SNP on around 34% constituency vote, down from 47.7% in 2021. Scottish Labour is at 28%. On current polling the SNP would lose their effective majority, though the AMS system means seat outcomes are difficult to predict precisely. A hung parliament is the most likely outcome, with either SNP minority government or Scottish Labour in some form of power-sharing.
What is the current state of Scottish independence polling?
May 2026 polls show approximately 49% Yes and 51% No among decided voters — a statistical tie. Support has remained in this narrow band since 2021. The demographic pattern is stark: 58% of 18–34s back independence versus 40% of over-55s. Without a major political event to shift opinion, a decisive majority seems unlikely before the Holyrood result is known.
Why did John Swinney become First Minister?
Swinney became FM in May 2024 after Humza Yousaf resigned following a confidence vote, triggered by the SNP withdrawing from the Bute House Agreement power-sharing arrangement with the Scottish Greens. Swinney was seen as an experienced unity candidate — he is the longest-serving MSP in Holyrood and has been in SNP leadership roles since the early 2000s.
How does Swinney compare to other Scottish leaders on approval?
Among Scottish party leaders polled in Scotland, Anas Sarwar (Scottish Labour) leads with a net approval of +8. Swinney at -5 is second. Douglas Ross (Scottish Conservatives) is at -18. UK-level leaders score poorly in Scotland: Starmer is at -28, Farage at -41. Swinney’s relative standing — better than all UK leaders polled in Scotland — is a genuine asset for the SNP campaign.
Which issues does Swinney poll strongest on?
The SNP under Swinney still leads comfortably on Scottish independence (54% trust SNP most) and has a reasonable lead on policing (30%). His weakest areas are NHS Scotland, where Scottish Labour has overtaken the SNP at 34% vs 28%, and housing, where the contested Housing Bill and rent freeze policy have weakened the SNP position. Climate and renewable energy remain a relative strength (36% trust SNP most).
Video: Further Analysis
Video: Leader approval ratings for all major UK politicians — how the public views Starmer, Farage, Badenoch, Davey and others in May 2026.