How often is the poll tracker updated?

The poll tracker is updated weekly as new polls are published by major UK polling firms including YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, and Redfield & Wilton.

Why do different pollsters show different numbers?

Different polling firms use different methodologies: weighting schemes, panel recruitment, question wording, and how they treat undecided voters all vary. These systematic differences are called house effects and are why a running average across pollsters is more reliable than any single poll.

What do poll tracker charts show?

The poll tracker chart shows the rolling 8-week trend for each major party: Reform UK, Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Green, and Others. Each data point represents a published poll from a named firm.

How do I interpret polling averages?

A polling average smooths out the random variation in individual polls. Because each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, a single poll result is less informative than a trend average across multiple polls.

What does polling tracker data tell us about 2029?

The current poll tracker data showing Reform UK at 27-29%, Labour at 18-20%, Lib Dems at 21-23%, and Conservatives at 17-19% implies, if sustained, a hung parliament at 2029 with no obvious majority coalition. However, polling tracker data at this distance from an election is most useful for identifying trends and relative party positions rather than predicting outcomes. The key questions the tracker data answers are: which parties are gaining or losing relative to each other, which have plateaued, and whether any party is approaching the threshold for significant seat gains or losses. On current trends, Reform is consolidating its lead, Labour has stabilised from its decline, and the Conservatives face continued structural pressure.

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Q: What is Reform UKs current polling average?

As of June 2026, Reform UK is averaging around 28% in UK national polls, making them the largest party by vote share, though FPTP would translate this into far fewer seats than their vote share suggests.

8-week voting intention trend chart and table of the 10 most recent published polls. Updated weekly. Sources: YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, Redfield & Wilton.

8-Week Voting Intention Trend

Updated weekly — last update: 12 May 2026

Reform UK

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dems

Green

Others

Last 10 Published Polls

Date	Pollster	Reform	Labour	Con	LD	Green	Others
10 May	YouGov	29%	17%	19%	13%	15%	7%
9 May	Redfield & Wilton	28%	18%	19%	12%	15%	8%
7 May	Ipsos	27%	19%	20%	13%	14%	7%
6 May	Survation	30%	17%	18%	12%	15%	8%
5 May	YouGov	29%	18%	19%	12%	15%	7%
3 May	Redfield & Wilton	27%	18%	20%	13%	14%	8%
1 May	YouGov	28%	19%	19%	13%	14%	7%
29 Apr	Ipsos	26%	20%	20%	13%	14%	7%
28 Apr	Survation	29%	18%	18%	12%	15%	8%
26 Apr	YouGov	28%	18%	19%	12%	15%	8%

About this data

All figures are published voting intention percentages from named polling firms. Numbers may not sum to exactly 100% due to rounding and exclusion of don’t knows. “Others” includes all parties not shown individually. Fieldwork dates differ from publication dates.

For methodology detail on how these polls are conducted, see our Polling Methodology Explained guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do pollsters show different numbers? +

House effects arise from methodological differences: weighting schemes, panel recruitment, question wording, and treatment of undecided voters. A cross-pollster average is more reliable than any single firm's result.

What is Reform UK's current polling average? +

As of June 2026, Reform UK averages around 28% — the largest share by vote, though FPTP would translate this into far fewer seats than proportional representation would give.

How do I interpret the chart trend? +

Each data point is a published poll. The trend shows directional movement, not a precise forecast. Short-term spikes may reflect news cycles rather than genuine opinion shifts. Look for sustained multi-poll moves.

How often is the tracker updated? +

Updated weekly as new polls are published. Major firms — YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, and Redfield & Wilton — publish roughly every one to two weeks each.

Where can I find historical UK polling data? +

Wikipedia's opinion polling pages and the British Polling Council's member disclosure archive hold comprehensive historical data. Our seat calculator can model scenarios using any polling figures.

Related tools: Swing Calculator • Seat Projection Calculator • Polling Methodology Explained