Scotland Independence Polling 2026
49% Yes, 51% No. Support has hovered near 50-50 for five years. The SNP has lost half its Westminster seats. What do Scots actually think about independence in 2026?
Scotland Independence Polling: Near 50-50 for Five Years
Scottish independence polling in May 2026 shows the electorate divided almost exactly in half: 49% Yes, 51% No when undecided voters are excluded. This near-deadlock has persisted since 2020, when independence support briefly peaked at around 55% following Brexit and the pandemic — a period when polling suggested a referendum win was possible. Since then, support has drifted back below 50%, driven by economic concerns about independence, the SNP’s governance difficulties, and Labour’s recovery in Scotland.
The structural dynamics of the independence debate remain clear: younger Scots overwhelmingly back independence (68% Yes among 16–34 year olds), while older Scots lean No (37% Yes among over-55s). This generational gap means independence support is likely to grow slowly over time through demographic change alone — but the pace is slow and a second referendum remains politically blocked.
Key independence polling findings — May 2026
- 49% Yes, 51% No (excluding don’t know)
- 42% Yes, 44% No, 14% undecided (including DK)
- Support peaked at ~55% Yes in late 2020 following Brexit
- 2014 referendum result: 55.3% No, 44.7% Yes
- 68% Yes among Scots aged 16–34
- Only 37% Yes among Scots aged 55+
- SNP fell from 48 to 9 Westminster seats in July 2024
- Scottish Labour won 37 seats in 2024, most since 1997
- 31% trust an independent Scotland could launch a new currency
Independence Support Trend: 2014 to 2026
Independence polling has been volatile but centred on the 45–55% range since the 2014 referendum. The key inflection points are Brexit (2016–2020, driving Yes up) and the SNP governance scandal / currency question (2022–2026, pulling Yes back below 50%).
| Period | Yes % | No % | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2014 (referendum) | 44.7% | 55.3% | Actual result; substantial No majority |
| 2015–2019 | 44% | 49% | Settled No majority; Brexit builds Yes case |
| Late 2020 | 55% | 39% | Brexit + pandemic: peak Yes support |
| 2021 | 50% | 45% | Supreme Court blocking path emerges |
| 2022 | 49% | 46% | SNP governance difficulties emerging |
| 2023 | 47% | 47% | Post-Sturgeon; SNP financial scandal |
| 2024 (pre-election) | 49% | 47% | Near 50-50; election approached |
| Jul 2024 (GE) | 49% | 48% | SNP collapse; Labour wins Scotland |
| May 2026 | 49% | 44% | Current; 14% DK excluded = 49/51 |
Source: Various pollsters, Savanta ComRes, YouGov, Ipsos Scotland. Figures from published polls, with DK excluded unless stated.
Key Questions: Currency, EU and the Economic Case
The economic case for independence remains the biggest vulnerability in Yes polling. Currency policy — what would replace the pound — is the question voters most frequently cite as unresolved. EU re-entry is both an asset (Remain-voting Scots attracted by independence-as-route-to-EU) and a complication (a hard border with England post-accession).
| Question about independence | Positive / Yes | Negative / No | DK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Would trust Scotland to launch a new currency successfully | 31% | 48% | 21% |
| Independence would be good for Scotland's economy | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Scotland could join the EU quickly after independence | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| Scottish NHS would be better funded after independence | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| A hard border with England would harm Scotland | 55% | 31% | 14% |
| Scotland could negotiate a fair deal with rUK | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Scotland is economically self-sufficient to be independent | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Independence would strengthen Scotland's culture | 53% | 31% | 16% |
Source: YouGov/Savanta Scotland composite, May 2026.
Yes/No by Party Vote
% supporting independence by current party vote, Scottish sub-sample, May 2026. SNP voters are overwhelmingly Yes; Labour and Conservative voters are No by large margins.
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Independence Support by Age, Gender and Region — May 2026
The demographic structure of Scottish independence support is highly predictable: young, urban, lower-income Scots tend towards Yes; older, rural and more affluent Scots tend towards No. The age gap is the largest single predictor of independence views and is the main reason support is likely to grow slowly over time.
| Group | Yes % | No % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16–24 | 70% | 23% | Strongest Yes cohort; Brexit framing resonates |
| 25–34 | 66% | 27% | Strong Yes; EU route argument key |
| 35–49 | 52% | 41% | Near 50-50; economic concerns bite |
| 50–64 | 40% | 53% | Lean No; cost-of-living concerns |
| 65+ | 37% | 57% | Strongest No cohort; pensions/currency fears |
| Men | 53% | 42% | Slightly more Yes than women |
| Women | 46% | 47% | Near 50-50; economic concerns higher |
| Glasgow | 57% | 38% | Urban core; strongest Yes city |
| Edinburgh | 52% | 44% | Capital; swing region |
| Central belt | 54% | 40% | SNP heartland; Yes majority |
| Borders / Dumfries & G. | 33% | 61% | Rural south; strongest No region |
| Highlands / Islands | 44% | 50% | Mixed; Orkney/Shetland strongly No |
| Aberdeen / North East | 44% | 50% | Oil economy; economic unionism strong |
| 2014 Yes voters | 93% | 5% | Highly loyal to Yes position |
| 2014 No voters | 12% | 84% | Highly loyal to No position |
| 2016 Remain voters | 61% | 33% | Brexit drives pro-independence among Remain |
| 2016 Leave voters | 32% | 61% | Leave voters generally oppose independence |
Source: YouGov/Savanta/Ipsos Scotland composite, May 2026. Excludes DK.
The SNP Collapse and Independence Strategy
The SNP suffered its worst Westminster result since 2010 at the July 2024 general election, losing 39 of 48 seats. The collapse reflected the SNP’s governance difficulties under Humza Yousaf (Bute House Agreement collapse, SNP financial scandal), Labour’s UK-wide recovery, and the failure of the de facto referendum strategy.
Scottish Labour won 37 Westminster seats in 2024, its best performance since 1997. The party ran explicitly on opposing IndyRef2 and focusing on public services. 58% of Scots who switched from SNP to Labour in 2024 say they did so primarily for UK-wide reasons (NHS, cost of living) not Scottish constitutional politics.
The 2022 Supreme Court ruling confirmed Holyrood cannot hold a referendum without Westminster consent. The UK Labour government under Keir Starmer has made clear it will not grant a Section 30 order. Only 34% of Scottish voters think a second referendum should happen before 2030 — even among Yes voters, only 61% want one before 2030.
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Labour in Scotland
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All Topics
Browse all polling topic deep-dives — Brexit, UK-EU relations, defence, economy and more.
What is the latest polling on Scottish independence?
May 2026 polling shows 49% Yes and 51% No when undecided voters are excluded. Including DK, the split is 42% Yes, 44% No, 14% undecided. Support has hovered around the 48–52% range since 2020, with no sustained majority for either side. The peak of Yes support was approximately 55% in late 2020 following Brexit and pandemic frustration, before gradually returning to near 50-50. SNP polling →
When could IndyRef2 happen?
There is no scheduled second referendum. The UK Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that Holyrood cannot hold a referendum without Westminster consent. The UK Labour government has indicated it will not grant a Section 30 order. The SNP’s de facto referendum strategy at the 2024 general election failed, with the party falling from 48 to 9 seats. Only 34% of Scots think a referendum should happen before 2030. SNP polling →
Do younger Scots support independence?
Yes, strongly. Among Scots aged 16–34, 68% support independence, compared to only 37% among those aged 55 and over. The age gap is the largest political divide in Scottish politics and means independence support will likely grow slowly through demographic change alone, as older No voters are replaced by younger Yes voters.
What impact has Brexit had on Scottish independence polling?
Brexit significantly boosted Scottish independence support. Scotland voted 62% Remain in 2016, and after the UK left the EU, support for independence rose from around 45% to 55% by 2020. The argument that independence would allow Scotland to rejoin the EU became central to the Yes case. However, support has since drifted back below 50% as economic concerns — currency, EU accession timeline, hard border with England — have grown. Brexit legacy polling →
What currency would an independent Scotland use?
Currency is the central unresolved question. Only 31% of Scottish voters trust an independent Scotland to launch a new currency successfully. 44% prefer Scotland to keep using sterling after independence. 18% support seeking to join the euro. The SNP’s position has evolved from using sterling temporarily to eventually adopting a new Scottish currency, but voter confidence in this plan remains low and it remains the single biggest economic barrier to independence support growth.
Why did the SNP lose so many seats in 2024?
The SNP fell from 48 to 9 Westminster seats in July 2024 due to a combination of: the party’s domestic governance difficulties in Scotland (Bute House Agreement collapse, SNP financial scandal), the failure of the de facto referendum strategy, UK Labour’s national wave, and tactical voting by No supporters. Scottish Labour won 37 seats, its best Westminster performance since 1997. The collapse does not reflect a fall in independence support — polls still show 49% Yes — but rather a split between voting SNP and supporting independence. SNP polling →