International — Germany
Germany Polling: AfD, CDU/CSU & the Merz Coalition
Germany is governed by a CDU/CSU–SPD Grand Coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the February 2025 Bundestag election. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is the largest opposition force and, unlike Reform UK, benefits from a proportional representation system that converts its polling share directly into seats. The figures below are pulled live from the DAWUM.de polling aggregator via our sister site bundestagwahlumfrage.de, updated twice daily. All pollsters, the 16 states and every party are in our Germany polling hub.
Current Polling Average (Live)
If an election were held today · As of 2026-10-03
| Party | Current Poll | Feb 2025 Result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 19.6% | 28.5% | −8.9pp |
| AfD | 27.8% | 20.8% | +7.0pp |
| SPD | 13.6% | 16.4% | −2.8pp |
| Greens | 15.0% | 11.6% | +3.4pp |
| Die Linke | 11.4% | 8.8% | +2.6pp |
| FDP | 3.8% | 4.3% | −0.5pp |
| BSW | 3.3% | 5.0% | −1.7pp |
Source: DAWUM.de (ODC-ODbL licensed open data). Not an official government forecast.
East-West Divide
AfD support is far from uniform across Germany. In the former East German states — Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern — the AfD regularly polls at 30–45%, reflecting distinct post-reunification economic grievances and a specific generational experience of the GDR. In the West, the AfD typically polls in the high teens to low twenties. This split has no direct UK equivalent, though it is sometimes compared loosely to Reform UK’s stronger showing in post-industrial former Labour heartlands.
AfD vs Reform UK: the seat-conversion gap
The single biggest structural difference between the two parties is electoral system, not ideology. Germany’s proportional representation means AfD’s polling share converts almost one-to-one into Bundestag seats. Reform UK, under First-Past-the-Post, has historically needed a far larger vote share to win a comparable number of Westminster seats — the same mechanism that has suppressed UKIP and the Brexit Party before it.
Berlin: a coalition test case
Berlin’s state election on 20 September 2026 produced a historic result for Die Linke, which became the strongest force in the Abgeordnetenhaus for the first time. The resulting coalition talks with the Greens and SPD, and the question of whether Die Linke’s own candidate becomes governing mayor, are being tracked in detail by our sister site’s Wahl Watch Berlin podcast and analysis series.
