How do independence views define SNP voters?

Support for Scottish independence is the single strongest predictor of SNP voting intention. 92% of SNP voters back independence. However, overall Yes support in Scotland is 44-46%, while the SNP polls at 31-32% for Westminster and 35-38% for Holyrood. This means some independence supporters vote for other parties (notably Scottish Greens and Alba), and a small minority of SNP voters (around 8%) do not support independence but vote SNP for other reasons.

Are there generational divisions in SNP support?

Yes. The SNP core age group is 35-54 — the generation shaped by the 2014 independence referendum — who support the party at 37-38% in Scottish polls. Younger voters aged 18-24 are more likely to back Scottish Greens and only support the SNP at 22% in Scotland-specific polls. Under-25s are more climate-focused and less attached to the SNP brand, representing a generational renewal challenge for the party.

Can the SNP build a broader coalition beyond independence supporters?

This is the central challenge facing the SNP. Independence support at 44-46% sets a structural ceiling on the coalition. To grow beyond 40% in Scotland, the SNP would need to attract voters who are ambivalent about independence but support other SNP policies such as free prescriptions, enhanced social care, and anti-austerity economics. The John Swinney governance-first strategy in 2025-2026 is partly aimed at demonstrating SNP competence in running public services, independent of the independence question.

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Who Votes SNP?

Q: Who votes SNP in 2026?

SNP support in Scotland in 2026 is drawn from a broad coalition: strongly pro-independence voters (virtually all SNP supporters back independence), middle-aged Scots aged 35-54, a slight male skew (35% men vs 28% women in Scottish polls), and a slight graduate lean. The SNP draws voters from both working-class communities (former Labour voters who switched post-2014) and middle-class professionals who back independence.

Q: What is the SNP polling in Scotland in 2026?

In Scottish-specific polls (May 2026), the SNP polls at 31-32% for Westminster voting intention and 34-38% for Holyrood constituency ballots. Scottish Labour is at 26-28%, making the two parties the closest they have been since 2010. The SNP leads Holyrood polls but its majority government majority is not secure.

A full demographic breakdown of SNP support in Scotland in 2026: age, gender, education, class, independence views, and the story of a coalition built on the 2014 referendum.

92%

Back independence

35%

Men in Scottish polls

35–54

Strongest age group

32%

Scotland Westminster VI

The Core SNP Voter

Key finding: The typical SNP voter in 2026 is pro-independence (92% of SNP supporters back independence), aged 35–54 (the ‘2014 generation’ who became politically engaged around the independence referendum), and drawn from a broad class coalition. Unlike most UK parties, the SNP combines working-class post-industrial support with middle-class professionals in a way that no other major UK party replicates.

Core Demographic Profile

GeographyScotland only (candidacy limited)
GenderSlight male skew (35% men vs 28% women)
AgeStrongest 35–54 (the 2014 cohort)
EducationSlight graduate lean
Independence view92% back independence
ClassCross-class coalition (unique in UK politics)

What These Voters Care About

Scottish independence#1 defining issue
NHS in Scotland (NHS Scotland separate)Very high salience
Cost of livingHigh salience
Anti-Westminster politicsHigh salience
Social progressivismMedium–high salience
Climate changeMedium salience

Gender Gap: Modest Male Skew

The SNP’s gender gap is smaller than most UK parties. Men back the SNP at 35% in Scotland compared to 28% among Scottish women — a 7-point gap, notably narrower than Reform UK’s 12-point male skew. The gap has widened slightly from 2022 (when it was 4 points) as the party’s difficulties on gender recognition reform — including Nicola Sturgeon’s controversial Gender Recognition Reform Bill — may have dented support among some female voters.

SNP Scottish VI by Gender (May 2026, Scotland-specific polls)

Men

35%

Women

28%

Overall

32%

Age Profile: The 2014 Generation

The SNP’s core age cohort is the 35–54 bracket — the voters who were politically shaped by the 2014 independence referendum and who represent the backbone of both Yes movement and SNP voting. Young voters (18–24) have shifted away from the SNP toward Scottish Greens and Scottish Labour in 2025–2026. Older voters remain more cautious about independence and are more likely to back Scottish Labour or Conservatives.

Age Group	SNP Scottish VI	vs. Scotland 32%	Independence support in group
18–24	22%	−10pts	58% Yes
25–34	28%	−4pts	56% Yes
35–44	38%	+6pts	54% Yes
45–54	37%	+5pts	48% Yes
55–64	30%	−2pts	41% Yes
65+	21%	−11pts	32% Yes

Source: Scotland-specific YouGov/Panelbase composite, May 2026. Westminster VI, Scotland only.

Education: A Broader Coalition Than Most Parties

The SNP has a somewhat more balanced education profile than most major UK parties. Independence is supported across education levels in Scotland — unlike Brexit, which had a strong graduate/non-graduate split. However, the SNP does over-perform slightly among graduates, perhaps reflecting the progressive social values that co-exist with its independence platform.

~36%

Degree-Educated Scots

Slightly above-average SNP support. Scotland’s graduate class leans pro-independence and backs the SNP’s social-democratic platform.

~29%

No University Degree

Solid but below-average SNP support. This group has partially returned to Scottish Labour since 2024, particularly in post-industrial central belt seats.

Independence: The Defining Characteristic

No other UK party is so completely defined by a single constitutional position. 92% of SNP voters back Scottish independence — the single strongest issue alignment of any major UK party. This creates both a loyal base and a ceiling: the SNP cannot easily grow beyond the independence-supporting coalition, which polls consistently at 44–46% in Scotland.

Independence view	SNP VI	Labour VI (Scotland)	Conservative VI (Scotland)
Yes to independence	66%	9%	3%
No to independence	4%	42%	34%
Undecided / depends	18%	22%	12%

Source: Panelbase Scotland tracker, May 2026. Westminster VI by independence view.

Where SNP Voters Went in 2024

48 to 9 seats

The 2024 General Election was a devastating loss for the SNP. The party fell from 48 seats to 9, losing 39 Westminster constituencies. Crucially, the vote collapse from 45% (2019) to 30% (2024) was amplified enormously by First Past the Post. Understanding where those votes went illuminates the path back:

~40%

To Scottish Labour

The largest loss. Working-class central belt voters who had backed the SNP post-2014 returned to Scottish Labour under Anas Sarwar’s effective campaign.

~25%

To Non-Voters / Abstain

A significant share of 2019 SNP voters sat out 2024, disillusioned with the Sturgeon era controversies and uncertain about Humza Yousaf’s brief leadership.

~20%

To Scottish Greens / Alba

Independence-committed voters who felt the SNP had not prioritised independence moved to Scottish Greens or Alba (the Alex Salmond splinter party).

Based on YouGov Scottish panel re-contact study, August 2024. Remainder stayed SNP or switched to other parties.

The Road Back: SNP Recovery in 2026 Polls

Under John Swinney, the SNP has begun a modest polling recovery. From a post-election low of 26% in Scottish Westminster polls (December 2024), the party has climbed back to 31–32% by May 2026. It polls higher for Holyrood (34–38%) where voters distinguish between devolved governance and Westminster seats. The 2026 Holyrood election is the key test.

Period	SNP Westminster (Scotland)	SNP Holyrood (Const.)	Independence support
2019 GE	45%	40%	45%
2022 (peak Sturgeon)	40%	47%	50%
2024 GE result	30%	—	45%
Dec 2024 (low)	26%	31%	43%
May 2026	32%	36%	45%

Explore More

SNP Polling Tracker

Latest SNP polls, John Swinney approval, and the road to 2026 Holyrood.

SNP History

From founding to Sturgeon era — the full polling history of the Scottish National Party.

Independence Tracker

The full history of Scottish independence polling from 2012 to 2026.

Holyrood Polls

Scottish Parliament polling — constituency and regional list vote breakdown.

Scottish Labour

Labour’s Scottish recovery under Anas Sarwar — from 1 MP in 2019 to 10 MPs in 2024.

All Parties

Compare all UK parties in the full polling tracker — Reform, Labour, Conservatives and more.

Who votes SNP in 2026?

SNP support in Scotland is dominated by pro-independence voters (92% of SNP supporters back independence), strongest among 35–54 year olds shaped by the 2014 referendum, with a slight male skew (35% men vs 28% women in Scottish polls). The party draws from both working-class and middle-class communities, making it unusually cross-class for a UK party.

Why did the SNP lose so many voters in 2024?

The SNP fell from 45% to 30% of the Scottish vote and from 48 to 9 seats. The main causes were the Sturgeon/police crisis, Scottish Labour’s effective recovery under Anas Sarwar, and tactical voting by pro-Labour and pro-Union voters. FPTP amplified the seat loss dramatically. SNP history →

Is independence support linked to SNP voting?

Almost completely. 92% of SNP voters support independence. However, independence polls at 44–46% in Scotland while the SNP polls at 31–32% for Westminster — meaning many Yes supporters vote for other parties, particularly Scottish Greens and Alba. Independence tracker →

What is the SNP polling in Scotland in 2026?

In May 2026, the SNP polls at 31–32% for Westminster voting intention and 34–38% for Holyrood constituency ballots in Scotland-specific polls. Scottish Labour is at 26–28%, the closest the two parties have been since 2010. Holyrood polls →

Are younger Scots moving away from the SNP?

Yes. The SNP polls only 22% among 18–24 year olds in Scotland — well below its 32% Scottish average. Young Scots are more likely to back the Scottish Greens (also pro-independence) or to abstain. The 35–54 cohort shaped by the 2014 referendum remains the SNP core base at 37–38%. This generational skew means the party faces a long-term renewal challenge as the 2014 generation ages and younger voters with different priorities enter the electorate. SNP history →

What is the SNP's path to rebuilding beyond its current base?

The SNP faces a structural ceiling: independence polls at 44–46% in Scotland, setting a limit on the independence-motivated coalition. To grow toward 40% in Scottish polls, the party would need to attract ambivalent voters who support SNP governance policies (free prescriptions, anti-austerity) but not independence as an immediate priority. John Swinney's strategy of governing competently at Holyrood and deprioritising referendum confrontation is designed to win back exactly this group ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election. Independence tracker →