Scottish Independence Tracker
Yes vs No polling since January 2024. Monthly averages, demographic splits, pollster breakdown.
Current Polling Snapshot — May 2026
Monthly Trend — January 2024 to May 2026
Independence Support by Age Group
18–34: Yes 62%
Young Scots are the most strongly pro-independence demographic. This pattern has been consistent since 2014. In the 2014 referendum itself, the 18–24 cohort voted Yes by roughly 71%. Support has moderated somewhat since then but remains well above the overall average. Many younger voters cite EU membership, NHS integration, and generational identity as drivers.
35–54: Yes ~52%
Middle-aged Scots are almost evenly split, with a slight tilt toward Yes. This group has swung most noticeably since 2014, when it voted No by a comfortable margin. The shift is attributed partly to Brexit — Scotland voted 62% Remain — and disillusionment with successive Conservative governments at Westminster that Scotland did not vote for.
55–64: No ~55%
Older working-age Scots lean No but are not as firmly opposed as the oldest cohort. Economic concerns — pensions, currency, trade — are cited frequently. This group's support for No has softened from 2014 levels, particularly among those who prioritise closer alignment with Europe.
65+: No 68%
Older Scots remain the bedrock of the No vote. Concerns about pension security, familiarity, and Unionist identity are dominant. The 65+ demographic has the highest turnout in Scottish elections, meaning their preference carries significant electoral weight despite their declining share of the electorate.
Pollster Breakdown — 2025–2026
| Pollster | Method | Date | Yes | No | Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Scotland sub-sample | May 2026 | 50% | 50% | — |
| Ipsos Scotland | Scotland full sample | Apr 2026 | 51% | 49% | 9% (excl.) |
| Survation | Scotland online panel | Mar 2026 | 49% | 51% | 8% (excl.) |
| YouGov | Scotland sub-sample | Feb 2026 | 50% | 50% | — |
| Panelbase | Scotland full sample | Jan 2026 | 50% | 50% | 10% (excl.) |
| Ipsos Scotland | Scotland full sample | Nov 2025 | 52% | 48% | 11% (excl.) |
| YouGov | Scotland sub-sample | Sep 2025 | 49% | 51% | — |
| Survation | Scotland online panel | Jul 2025 | 50% | 50% | 9% (excl.) |
| Panelbase | Scotland full sample | Apr 2025 | 51% | 49% | 8% (excl.) |
| YouGov | Scotland sub-sample | Jan 2025 | 48% | 52% | — |
Path to a Referendum: The Political Blockage
The Section 30 Question
Under the Scotland Act 1998, constitutional matters including independence referendums are reserved to Westminster. For a legally binding referendum, Holyrood requires a Section 30 order delegating temporary powers. Both Rishi Sunak's Conservative government and Keir Starmer's Labour government have refused to grant one, arguing there is no mandate for a second referendum so soon after 2014.
The Supreme Court Ruling (2022)
In November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster's consent. This effectively closed the unilateral route the SNP had been exploring. The SNP briefly proposed treating the 2024 general election as a de facto referendum but abandoned the strategy following internal opposition.
SNP Current Strategy
Under John Swinney, the SNP has adopted a build-the-case approach rather than pushing for an immediate referendum. The party is focused on winning the 2026 Holyrood election and then seeking a renewed democratic mandate. Independence is still the stated goal but is no longer framed as imminent.
The 50/50 Problem
Even if a referendum were held, the 50/50 polling means the outcome is genuinely uncertain. The Yes side needs a consistent and clear majority before it can credibly argue a referendum is winnable. Most analysts believe Yes needs to average 55%+ for several months before the political case for a referendum becomes irresistible even to a reluctant Westminster.
Historical Context: 2014 to Now
| Period | Yes avg | No avg | Key event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 Referendum | 44.7% | 55.3% | No wins by 10.6 points |
| 2015–2016 | 48% | 52% | SNP Westminster surge, 56/59 seats |
| 2016 Brexit vote | 52% | 48% | Scotland votes 62% Remain — Yes rises |
| 2017–2018 | 47% | 53% | Sturgeon scales back indyref2 timeline |
| 2019–2020 | 50% | 50% | COVID, SNP majority government era |
| 2021–2022 | 48% | 52% | Holyrood 2021: SNP minority, Greens prop up |
| 2023 | 48% | 52% | SNP finances inquiry — Yes dips |
| 2024 post-GE | 49% | 51% | SNP collapse to 9 Westminster seats |
| 2025 | 50% | 50% | Statistical deadlock resumes |
| May 2026 | 50% | 50% | No change — indyref2 not imminent |