Holyrood 2026: Scotland Election Polls
Constituency and regional list voting intention. Seat projection table. Who forms Scotland's next government?
Constituency Vote Intention — May 2026
Regional List Vote Intention — May 2026
VI Comparison Chart: Constituency vs List
Projected Seat Ranges — Based on May 2026 Polling
| Party | Constituency est. | List est. | Total est. | Range | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 43 | 7 | 50 | 44–55 | Largest party, well short of 65 |
| Labour | 24 | 10 | 34 | 29–40 | Best Holyrood result since 2007 |
| Conservative | 2 | 14 | 16 | 12–20 | List-dependent party |
| Green | 0 | 12 | 12 | 9–15 | List-only strategy |
| Lib Dem | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4–8 | North East Scotland base |
| Reform UK | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4–10 | First Holyrood presence possible |
| Alba | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | Threshold risk on list |
| Total | 73 | 56 | 129 | — | Majority = 65 |
Seat estimates are editorial projections based on May 2026 polling averages. The AMS system makes precise projection difficult. Ranges reflect normal polling uncertainty of +/– 3–4 points.
Government Formation: Who Rules Scotland?
Scenario A: SNP Minority Government (Most Likely)
If the SNP wins around 50 seats, John Swinney would remain as First Minister leading a minority administration. This is the baseline scenario given current polling. The SNP would need to win confidence votes and budget support from other parties — most likely the Scottish Greens (12 seats projected) on a vote-by-vote basis.
Independence impact: A pro-independence parliamentary majority (SNP + Green) would exist even without formal power-sharing, giving a platform to continue pressing for indyref2 — though Westminster's refusal remains the binding constraint.
Scenario B: Labour-Led Government (Possible)
If Labour reaches 34+ seats and can form a coalition or confidence arrangement with the Liberal Democrats (6 seats), it could theoretically govern without relying on SNP support. This would require Labour on roughly 32%+ constituency vote — above current polling. Sarwar has not ruled out a Labour-LibDem arrangement.
Independence impact: A Labour First Minister would firmly close the door on any independence referendum discussion for the term of the parliament — a significant change from 16 years of SNP government.
Scenario C: SNP-Green Cooperation
The SNP and Scottish Greens last governed together under the Bute House Agreement (2021–2024), which collapsed acrimoniously. A formal repeat is unlikely, but informal vote-by-vote cooperation is probable. Together, SNP (50) + Green (12) would give a pro-independence working majority of 62 — still three short of 65 for all votes.
The Reform UK Wildcard
Reform UK's emergence at ~10% constituency and 11% list creates new unpredictability. If they win 7+ seats as projected, they become a significant bloc. Their presence also squeezes Conservative list seats, potentially reducing the centre-right bloc overall and making it harder to build an anti-SNP majority.
How Holyrood Works: AMS Explained
Scotland's parliament uses the Additional Member System (AMS), a form of proportional representation. Voters cast two ballots on election day:
- Constituency vote (FPTP): 73 MSPs elected in constituencies using First Past the Post. The SNP has won the vast majority of these since 2015.
- Regional list vote (D'Hondt method): 56 MSPs elected across 8 regional lists (7 per region) using a proportional method that corrects for FPTP distortions. Parties that win many constituencies get fewer list seats — this is why the SNP typically gets very few list seats despite high vote shares.
Strategic voting: Many pro-independence voters give their list vote to the Greens rather than the SNP to maximise the pro-independence bloc. Reform UK is an entirely list-focused newcomer to Scotland that may pick up protest votes on the list ballot.