Defence Polling 2026
61% back a defence spending increase. Ukraine support holds at 54% but is falling. Trident has 67% backing. Conscription is rejected 2-to-1. What do British voters really think about national security?
The New Defence Consensus — and Its Limits
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 fundamentally shifted British public opinion on defence. Support for increased defence spending rose from 48% before the invasion to 61% by May 2026 — a structural change that has not reversed despite four years of war fatigue and cost-of-living pressure. The UK’s NATO commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence now commands majority support at 58%, and Labour’s pledge to reach 2.5% by 2030 is backed by 47% of voters.
Yet the consensus has clear limits. Support for continuing military aid to Ukraine has fallen from 79% in March 2022 to 54% in May 2026 as war fatigue compounds cost-of-living pressure. Conscription — proposed by the Conservatives in their 2024 manifesto as “national service” — is firmly rejected by 58% of voters. And Reform UK’s Ukraine scepticism has carved out a distinct niche: only 38% of Reform voters back continuing aid, versus 54% nationally.
Key defence polling findings — May 2026
- 61% support increased defence spending (up from 48% pre-Ukraine invasion)
- 58% back NATO 2% GDP spending target; 47% support Labour’s 2.5% pledge
- 54% support continuing UK military aid to Ukraine (down from 79% in 2022)
- 67% support keeping the Trident nuclear deterrent (up from 56% in 2023)
- Only 20% want to scrap Trident; 13% unsure
- 58% oppose military conscription / national service
- 71% say cyber defence should be a top priority
- 39% support UK joining an EU defence pact; 38% oppose (near-even split)
- Conservatives lead on defence trust at 27%, ahead of Labour at 24%
Defence Policy: Support vs Opposition
| Policy | Support | Oppose | DK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Increase overall defence spending | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Meet NATO 2% GDP target | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Labour 2.5% GDP pledge by 2030 | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Continue military aid to Ukraine | 54% | 34% | 12% |
| Keep Trident nuclear deterrent | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Military conscription / national service | 28% | 58% | 14% |
| UK join EU defence pact | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| Prioritise cyber defence spending | 71% | 11% | 18% |
| Increase armed forces recruitment targets | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| UK special forces deployments overseas | 44% | 33% | 23% |
Source: YouGov, Ipsos, Redfield & Wilton, Survation — composite, May 2026.
UK Defence Spending as % of GDP
UK defence spending fell sharply after 2010 as austerity cut the MoD budget. It scraped the NATO 2% floor from 2014 onwards before rising again after Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Labour’s pledge to reach 2.5% by 2030 represents the most significant commitment to defence expenditure since the Cold War.
| Year | % of GDP | Approx. £bn | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2.5% | ~£36bn | Pre-austerity peak |
| 2015 | 2.1% | ~£37bn | Post-austerity cuts; just above NATO floor |
| 2019 | 2.1% | ~£42bn | Conservative manifesto: hold at 2% |
| 2022 | 2.2% | ~£49bn | Ukraine invasion; spending boost begins |
| 2024 | 2.3% | ~£54bn | Post-election; Labour inherits rising budget |
| 2026 | 2.3% | ~£57bn | Current; Labour commits to 2.5% by 2030 |
Approximate figures. % of GDP NATO accounting methodology. Source: SIPRI, HM Treasury, RUSI estimates.
Ukraine: Declining Support Over Four Years
Support for UK military aid to Ukraine has fallen by 25 percentage points since the invasion. The decline is sharpest among Reform UK voters, where Nigel Farage’s scepticism about NATO provocation has become a defining party position. Nationally, opposition has grown from just 9% in 2022 to 34% in May 2026, driven by war fatigue, cost-of-living pressure, and a growing minority view that the conflict cannot be resolved militarily.
| Date | Support aid | Oppose aid | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2022 | 79% | 9% | Invasion week; near-universal support |
| Sep 2022 | 74% | 14% | Kharkiv offensive; UK continues arms supply |
| Mar 2023 | 67% | 21% | One year on; war fatigue emerging |
| Sep 2023 | 62% | 27% | Cost of living crisis peak; fatigue rising |
| Mar 2024 | 59% | 29% | Election year; Reform narrows Conservative gap |
| Nov 2024 | 57% | 31% | Post-UK election; Labour confirms support |
| May 2026 | 54% | 34% | Two years of Labour government; Reform at 28% |
Source: YouGov tracker. Support = “support continuing UK military and financial aid to Ukraine.”
Defence Trust by Party
Most trusted party on defence and national security. YouGov/Ipsos composite, May 2026.
Conservatives lead by just 3 points — historically narrow given their “party of defence” reputation.
% supporting continuing UK military aid to Ukraine. May 2026.
Defence Attitudes by Age and Party Vote — May 2026
Defence attitudes show a significant generational divide. Older voters are the most strongly pro-defence spending and pro-Ukraine; younger voters are more sceptical of military intervention and overwhelmingly opposed to conscription. The gap is particularly stark on conscription: 73% of 18–34 year olds oppose it, compared to only 41% of over-65s.
| Group | More defence spending | Back Ukraine aid | Keep Trident | Support conscription |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 47% | 48% | 54% | 22% |
| 25–34 | 49% | 50% | 57% | 25% |
| 35–49 | 59% | 53% | 64% | 26% |
| 50–64 | 67% | 58% | 72% | 33% |
| 65+ | 72% | 63% | 79% | 40% |
| Reform UK voters | 68% | 38% | 71% | 37% |
| Conservative voters | 74% | 57% | 81% | 39% |
| Labour voters | 58% | 68% | 63% | 23% |
| Lib Dem voters | 55% | 74% | 58% | 19% |
| Green voters | 44% | 62% | 34% | 14% |
Source: YouGov/Ipsos composite polls, May 2026. Rounding applies.
Three Key Defence Issues in Detail
67% of UK adults back Trident renewal — up from 56% in 2023. The increase tracks Russian aggression and European instability. Only 20% want to scrap it. Even 34% of Green voters support Trident, and 51% of Labour voters, despite historic party scepticism.
The Conservatives’ 2024 manifesto “national service” proposal was deeply unpopular. 58% oppose conscription, rising to 73% among 18–34 year olds. The policy is widely credited as contributing to the Conservatives’ worst election result. Only 28% backed it nationally.
71% say cyber defence should be a top priority, the highest support of any specific defence policy. The NHS ransomware attack (2024) and critical infrastructure incidents have made cyber security a salient issue with voters across the political spectrum.
Explore More
Foreign Policy Polling
Ukraine (61% aid), Gaza (73% ceasefire), NATO, Trump and UK’s global role. Full foreign policy data.
Immigration Polling
61% want fewer migrants. The border security and national security dimension of the immigration debate.
Economy Polling
How defence spending commitments sit alongside the economic credibility collapse. No party trusted.
Reform UK Polling
Reform UK at 28% nationally — their Ukraine scepticism and how it plays with their voter coalition.
Conservative Polling
Defence trust leaders at 27% — how Conservatives hold security credentials despite troop cuts.
All Topics
Browse all polling topic deep-dives — NHS, immigration, housing, climate change and more.
What do UK voters think about defence spending in 2026?
61% of UK adults support increasing overall defence spending, up from 48% before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 58% back the NATO 2% GDP target. Labour has pledged to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2030, supported by 47% of voters though 28% are sceptical it will be delivered. Full defence polling data →
Do UK voters support military aid to Ukraine?
54% support continuing UK military aid to Ukraine in May 2026, down from 79% at the invasion in March 2022. War fatigue and cost-of-living pressure are the main drivers. Reform UK voters are the main outlier at only 38% support. The decline has been steady across all parties, but is most pronounced on the right.
What do UK voters think about Trident nuclear renewal?
67% support keeping the Trident nuclear deterrent, up from 56% in 2023. The increase tracks Russian aggression and European instability. Only 20% want to scrap it. Even 34% of Green voters back Trident — a significant departure from their party leadership’s unilateralist position.
Do UK voters support military conscription?
No — 58% oppose military conscription or national service, rising to 73% among 18–34 year olds. The Conservatives’ 2024 manifesto proposal was deeply unpopular and is widely credited as contributing to their election defeat. Only 28% support some form of national service. Conservative polling →
What is UK public opinion on an EU defence pact?
Opinion is nearly evenly split: 39% support the UK joining an EU defence arrangement, 38% oppose, and 23% are undecided. Remain voters in 2016 are more supportive (54%); Leave voters less so (29%). Labour has signalled openness to closer EU defence ties without political integration.
Which party do UK voters trust most on defence?
The Conservatives lead on defence trust at 27%, ahead of Labour at 24% and Reform UK at 16%. The Conservatives’ historical ownership of defence credentials provides a structural advantage that has persisted despite cutting troop numbers during their government years. Labour has closed the gap significantly by pledging 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030. Conservative polling →