Pollster Profile
BMG Research: UK Polling Methodology & Voting Intention
BMG Research is a Birmingham-based market research and polling company with a significant presence in UK political polling. The company conducts monthly omnibus surveys and publishes regular voting intention data, making it one of the established names in British public opinion research alongside larger firms such as YouGov, Ipsos, and Survation.
BMG has been operating in the UK research market since 2013. Their political polling work gained particular prominence in the years following the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2017 general election, when demand for granular regional polling data increased sharply. BMG frequently commissions political polling for the Independent newspaper and other media clients.
Methodology
BMG Research uses a combination of telephone-recruited online panels and Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) for their political polling work. Their approach to political polling is characterised by:
- Phone-recruited panels: Unlike purely online pollsters, BMG recruits some respondents initially by telephone before completing surveys online, which they argue produces a more representative sample than purely opt-in digital panels.
- Turnout weighting: BMG applies self-reported likelihood-to-vote weighting to their voting intention figures, filtering down to likely voters rather than reporting raw voting intention among all adults.
- Regional quotas: Surveys are weighted to match the regional demographic profile of Great Britain using Office for National Statistics population data.
- Standard sample sizes: Typical BMG political surveys have sample sizes of 1,500–2,000 respondents, consistent with industry norms.
Track record at UK elections
BMG was one of several pollsters that underestimated Conservative support in the 2015 general election, a failure shared by virtually the entire industry. Following the British Polling Council inquiry into 2015 polling errors, BMG adopted revised weighting approaches including education weighting, which had been identified as a key variable contributing to underrepresentation of Conservative voters in samples.
In 2017, BMG performed reasonably well relative to the final result, correctly identifying a tighter race than some polls suggested in the final days of the campaign. In 2019 and 2024, their final polls were broadly consistent with the outcomes, though like other firms they faced challenges in correctly estimating the scale of Reform UK’s support in regional contests.
Key clients and publications
BMG Research has a longstanding polling relationship with the Independent newspaper, for whom they publish regular voting intention and approval rating surveys. They also conduct polling for trade associations, public sector organisations, and commercial clients outside the political sphere — BMG operates across consumer, healthcare, and public affairs research as well as political polling.
BMG voting intention: current figures
BMG publishes voting intention approximately monthly. Their most recent figures are incorporated into the BritPolls poll-of-polls alongside data from YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, Opinium, Redfield & Wilton, and other active UK pollsters.
For the latest composite UK voting intention average incorporating BMG alongside all other active pollsters, see the Voting Intention Tracker and Poll of Polls.