Pollster Profile
Survation: Methodology, MRP Polling & Voting Intention Figures
Survation is a UK polling and research company founded in 2011 by Damian Lyons Lowe. While smaller than YouGov or Ipsos in terms of output volume, Survation has built a strong reputation for methodological innovation — particularly in the area of telephone polling and MRP constituency modelling. The company is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and publishes full data tables with every voting intention poll.
Survation Methodology
- Online polling: The majority of Survation’s voting intention polls are conducted online via their proprietary panel and third-party panel partners. Respondents are recruited through multiple channels and incentivised to participate.
- Telephone polling (CATI): Survation continues to conduct Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing surveys, providing an important methodological cross-check against online-only results. Their phone polls typically reach harder-to-engage demographics including older voters without internet access.
- Sample size: Typically 1,000 to 1,500 GB adults per poll for standard voting intention; larger samples for MRP work.
- Weighting: Age, gender, region, socio-economic grade, and past vote recall (2019 and 2024 general elections).
- Scotland-specific polling: Survation regularly conducts dedicated Scottish polls for Holyrood and Westminster voting intention, with sample sizes of 1,000+ Scottish adults. These are separate from their GB-wide tracker and are considered among the most reliable Scotland-specific data sources.
How Survation Weighting Works
Like all reputable UK pollsters, Survation weights its samples to match the known demographic composition of the GB adult population. The key variables are age-by-gender interlocked weighting (ensuring the right proportions of young men, young women, older men, and older women), region (standard ONS regions), social grade (AB, C1, C2, DE), and past vote recall.
The past vote recall weight is the most contested element of polling methodology. In practice, many polls find that more respondents claim to have voted for the winning party at the last election than actually did — known as “false recall” or the “spiral of silence.” Survation and other pollsters apply corrections for this, but the precise approach differs between companies and contributes to “house effects” — systematic differences between pollsters.
Survation MRP Polling
Survation is one of the leading UK MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) polling companies. MRP uses large samples — typically 10,000–50,000 respondents — combined with census-level data to produce constituency-level voting intention estimates across all 650 Westminster seats.
Survation published MRP polling ahead of the 2024 General Election that broadly predicted the scale of the Labour landslide, including identifying several unexpected Lib Dem gains in the South and South West. Their 2019 MRP work for Channel 4 produced a notably accurate projection of the Conservative majority before other pollsters had identified its scale.
For 2026, Survation has published one major MRP exercise (February 2026) showing Reform UK potentially winning 65–90 seats at a general election on current polling — a significant increase from their current 5 seats but well below their proportional share due to FPTP. Learn how MRP works →
Survation Recent Polls: Voting Intention
| Fieldwork dates | Reform | Con | Labour | Green | LD | SNP | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6–8 May 2026 | 26% | 20% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 3% | 1,472 |
| 22–24 Apr 2026 | 27% | 19% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 3% | 1,508 |
| 8–10 Apr 2026 | 25% | 20% | 21% | 14% | 13% | 3% | 1,491 |
| 25–27 Mar 2026 | 24% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1,463 |
| 11–13 Mar 2026 | 24% | 20% | 23% | 13% | 13% | 3% | 1,488 |
Source: Survation GB voting intention polls, 2026. Figures rounded to nearest whole number. Fieldwork conducted online unless noted otherwise.
Survation Voting Intention (May 2026 Snapshot)
Source: Survation, 6–8 May 2026. n=1,472 GB adults. Figures rounded.
Survation House Effects and Accuracy Record
Survation has historically shown slightly higher Labour support than purely online pollsters, which some analysts attribute to their telephone methodology reaching voters who are less engaged with online panel surveys. Their Reform UK figures tend to be 1–2 points lower than YouGov’s central estimate, and their Conservative figures are typically 1 point higher than the polling average.
On accuracy at elections, Survation’s record is mixed in the way that characterises all UK pollsters. In 2015, all major pollsters — including Survation — substantially underestimated the Conservative lead, contributing to the industry-wide inquiry into polling methodology. Survation’s final 2019 poll was close to the actual result. Their 2024 final poll showed Labour ahead by 20+ points, which proved accurate in terms of lead if slightly underestimating the Lib Dem share.
These house effect differences highlight the importance of comparing across pollsters rather than relying on any single company’s figures. The polling average on this site aggregates all major pollsters to provide a more robust central estimate.
Scotland-Specific Survation Polling
Survation is one of only two or three pollsters that regularly conducts dedicated Scotland-only surveys with adequate sample sizes for reliable sub-national analysis. These polls, typically conducted for Scottish media clients, ask Westminster and Holyrood voting intention questions of 1,000+ Scottish adults and are considered more reliable than England-wide poll sub-samples for assessing SNP and Scottish party performance.
Their most recent Scotland-specific poll (April 2026) recorded SNP at 32% for Westminster, Labour Scotland at 25%, Scottish Conservatives at 15%, and Scottish Greens at 9%.