Pollster Profile
Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Methodology & UK Voting Intention
Redfield & Wilton Strategies is one of the most prolific polling firms in the United Kingdom. Founded in 2020, the firm quickly established itself as a high-frequency tracker, publishing voting intention data on a near-daily basis during periods of political intensity. Their volume of output makes them one of the most cited pollsters in the UK polling average.
The firm operates across multiple markets including the United States, Canada, Australia, and several European countries, but their UK output is among the most consistent and closely watched. For anyone tracking British public opinion on a daily or weekly basis, Redfield & Wilton figures are essential reading.
Who are Redfield & Wilton Strategies?
Redfield & Wilton Strategies was founded in 2020 by a team with backgrounds in political research and data analytics. Unlike older polling institutions such as Ipsos or YouGov, Redfield & Wilton entered the market as a digital-first organisation with no legacy telephone or face-to-face infrastructure. This made them nimble and cost-efficient, enabling a high volume of polling from day one.
The firm is a full member of the British Polling Council (BPC), which requires adherence to transparency standards including the publication of full data tables for all political polls within two working days of release.
Methodology
All Redfield & Wilton UK voting intention polls use online panel methodology:
- Online panel recruitment: Respondents are drawn from a recruited online panel. Sample members are not self-selecting volunteers but are invited to participate from a pre-screened pool.
- Sample size: Standard voting intention surveys use approximately 1,500 respondents — GB adults aged 18 and over.
- Fieldwork duration: Typically one to two days, enabling rapid turnaround and near-real-time tracking of public sentiment after major events.
- Weighting variables: Data is weighted by age, gender, region, and 2024 General Election vote recall to match the profile of the GB adult population.
- Vote intention question: Asked of all respondents, with a follow-up squeeze question for those initially undecided. The published figure typically includes leaning voters.
- Publication: Topline results are released alongside crosstab data, including breakdowns by age group, region, and 2024 vote.
Recent voting intention figures (May 2026)
Source: Redfield & Wilton Strategies, May 2026 composite. Figures rounded to nearest percent. GB adults.
House effects: Reform UK and Labour divergence
Redfield & Wilton consistently produce some of the highest figures for Reform UK of any polling firm. In 2025 and into 2026, their Reform figures have often run 2–4 points above the cross-firm average. Simultaneously, their Labour figures have tended to be lower — sometimes running 5–8 points below YouGov or Ipsos in the same week.
Possible explanations include panel composition effects, differences in how “don’t know” responses are handled before weighting, and variation in the application of likely voter filters. When a Redfield & Wilton figure appears unusually high for Reform or low for Labour, cross-reference with at least two other firms before treating it as a confirmed trend signal. See our full methodology page for how we account for house effects in the polling average.
Daily tracking: strengths and limitations
The high frequency of Redfield & Wilton polling is both their key selling point and a source of methodological caution. Daily or near-daily tracking is excellent for identifying directional trends and capturing rapid shifts in sentiment after a major political event, budget, or scandal. The 2025 period saw multiple political shocks where Redfield & Wilton data provided the earliest available signal of changing public opinion.
However, high-frequency polling with moderate sample sizes means individual data points carry more statistical noise than a larger, less frequent poll. The margin of error on a 1,500-sample poll is approximately ±2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Day-to-day variation of 1–2 points is entirely within sampling error and should not be over-interpreted as a meaningful trend shift.
Best practice is to use a rolling three-poll or seven-day average of Redfield & Wilton data rather than focusing on any single data point. Our voting intention tracker automatically smooths across multiple polls from all firms.
Accuracy record at UK elections
Redfield & Wilton was founded in 2020, so their track record at UK general elections is limited compared to older firms such as YouGov or Ipsos. Their performance at the 2024 General Election was broadly accurate in identifying the direction of the result, though like several other online pollsters they somewhat underestimated Conservative vote share and overestimated Reform UK’s final total.
| Election | Final poll | Actual result | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 UK General Election | Lab 27%, Con 20%, Ref 17% | Lab 34%, Con 24%, Ref 14% | Direction correct; magnitudes mixed |
| 2021 Scottish Parliament | SNP 48%, Con 22%, Lab 22% | SNP 48%, Con 23%, Lab 22% | Highly accurate |
Redfield & Wilton sub-group data
Among the most useful aspects of Redfield & Wilton’s regular polling is their consistent publication of crosstab data by age, gender, region, and 2024 vote recall. These breakdowns reveal patterns that national headlines routinely obscure.
In May 2026, Redfield & Wilton data shows Reform UK leading among men over 45 by a substantial margin, while Labour holds a consistent lead among women under 40 and among all voters in major urban centres. The Conservatives show the weakest age gradient of any of the three leading parties, performing relatively evenly across age groups — but poorly across almost all of them compared to their 2019 position.
Regional crosstabs show Reform UK strongest in the East Midlands, Eastern England, and parts of Yorkshire and the Humber, while Labour retains dominant leads in London and the major Northern cities. The Lib Dems show concentrated support in the South West and suburban South East, which is consistent with their 2024 general election seat gains in those areas.
Redfield & Wilton and issue polling
Beyond voting intention, Redfield & Wilton periodically publishes polling on specific policy issues and political events. Their issue polls have covered immigration, the cost of living, NHS waiting times, and attitudes toward political leaders. Issue polls provide important context for understanding why voting intention is moving: parties that lead on the issues voters say are most important tend to gain in VI, and parties associated with negative news on salient issues tend to fall.
Leader approval data from Redfield & Wilton is available on our leader approval tracker, which aggregates approval ratings for Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch, and Nigel Farage across all major polling firms.
Where to find Redfield & Wilton data
All Redfield & Wilton political polls are published at their official website and registered with the British Polling Council. Data tables are published within two working days of the topline release. UKPollingData.com collates all published UK voting intention figures from Redfield & Wilton into our voting intention tracker. For Scottish voting intention specifically, see our Scotland polling page.
How UKPollingData uses Redfield & Wilton data
UKPollingData.com includes Redfield & Wilton figures in the national polling average. Given their high output volume, they contribute significant weight to the rolling average. Our poll-of-polls methodology page explains the full weighting approach in detail, including how we account for documented house effects.
For readers tracking polls independently, we recommend treating Redfield & Wilton data as directionally informative while always comparing with the full cross-firm tracker before drawing conclusions about trends. See also our guide to how voting intention polls work and what MRP polls are.