How does Freshwater Strategy compare to other UK pollsters?

Freshwater Strategy sits broadly in line with the polling average on Reform UK support. Their Conservative figures tend to be slightly higher and Green figures slightly lower than most online-panel rivals, particularly Find Out Now. As a newer pollster, they have limited historical track record to assess house effects definitively.

Who commissions Freshwater Strategy polling?

Freshwater Strategy is a specialist research agency that conducts political polls primarily for Wales and UK-wide research. They are particularly notable for Welsh political polling, publishing regular Senedd and Welsh Westminster voting intention surveys. Their Welsh polls are considered among the more reliable indicators of Welsh political opinion alongside Beaufort Research. For UK-wide Westminster polling, their results are less frequently published but consistent with the cross-firm average when they appear.

How does Freshwater Strategy polling compare to UK-wide pollsters in Welsh surveys?

In Welsh-specific polling, Freshwater Strategy typically shows Labour at approximately 30-32%, Reform UK at 19-22%, Plaid Cymru at 16-18%, Conservatives at 15-17%, and Liberal Democrats at 8-10%. These figures align broadly with other Wales-focused polling firms. Welsh political polling is complicated by the different party system (Plaid Cymru having much higher salience than in England) and the distinction between Holyrood/Westminster voting intention and Senedd voting intention, which Freshwater Strategy carefully separates in their research.

What makes Welsh political polling different from English polling?

Welsh political polling differs from English polling in several important ways. Plaid Cymru — absent from England — polls at 16-20% in Wales, significantly affecting seat distributions. The SNP equivalent dynamic (a nationalist party with strong regional support) changes tactical voting calculations. Welsh voters also express different policy priorities from English voters on issues like the NHS (devolved and differently managed) and language policy. Finally, Welsh turnout patterns differ from England, with some Welsh constituencies showing lower turnout than comparable English seats.

Pollster Profile

Freshwater Strategy: UK Voting Intention & Methodology

Q: What does Freshwater Strategy show for UK voting intention in 2026?

Freshwater Strategy's May 2026 poll showed Reform UK at 29%, Conservatives at 20%, Labour at 18%, Lib Dems at 14%, and Greens at 12%. Their Conservative figure of 20% is slightly above the YouGov average, and their Green figure of 12% is notably lower than Find Out Now, reflecting inter-firm methodology differences.

Last updated: May 2026 — BritPolls Editorial

Freshwater Strategy is a UK research and strategy consultancy that publishes periodic voting intention surveys alongside broader public opinion and communications work. They are part of the growing cohort of independent UK polling firms contributing to the weekly polling average, alongside the established names such as YouGov, Ipsos, and Survation.

Freshwater Strategy polls are conducted online with quota sampling by age, gender, and region, and weighted by 2024 General Election vote recall. Their polls typically run at samples of around 1,200–1,500 adults.

Freshwater Strategy methodology

Online panel methodology with standard post-fieldwork weighting by 2024 vote recall, age, gender, region, and social grade. Fieldwork runs over three to five days. Results are published in line with British Polling Council disclosure requirements.

Recent voting intention polls

Date	Lab	Con	Reform	LD	Grn	Sample
10 May 2026	18%	20%	29%	14%	12%	1,243

How does Freshwater Strategy compare?

Their May 2026 poll showed Reform UK on 29% — in line with the broader polling average. The Conservative figure of 20% is slightly above the YouGov average, suggesting a modest house effect. Their lower Green share (12%) compared to Find Out Now (17–20%) is the most notable inter-firm divergence, likely driven by panel and weighting differences.

Method	Online panel
Typical sample	1,200–1,500
Frequency	Irregular