Welsh Senedd Election 2026

Welsh Labour has governed Wales continuously since 1999. Under the new proportional system, their 34% polling is likely to produce around 33 seats — well short of the 49 needed for a majority. Labour will almost certainly need coalition partners or a confidence and supply arrangement. The question is whether they partner with Plaid Cymru (as in 2007 and the 2021-24 co-operation agreement) or attempt a minority government.

Reform UK polling at 19% in Wales would be one of their strongest regional showings. Under the new proportional list system, this could translate directly into around 18 seats — making them the second largest group. This would be a dramatic entry into Welsh politics for a party that had no Senedd presence before. Their support is concentrated in post-industrial south Wales valleys and border communities.

Plaid Cymru at 17% would maintain their position as the third force in Welsh politics. Their long-term aim is an independence referendum — a goal that requires either a Plaid-led government or a pro-independence majority with Labour. Given Labour's opposition to independence, this path looks blocked for this Parliament. Plaid's role is likely to be constructive opposition or junior coalition partner.

Welsh Conservatives at 14% face an existential challenge from Reform UK eating into their voter base. Under the new proportional system, they should still win around 14 seats, but the threat is real: if Reform consolidates further, the Conservatives could be squeezed below 10% in Wales, losing the formal title of official opposition. Their performance in the 2026 contest will be closely watched as a barometer of Kemi Badenoch's recovery project.

Devolution settlement

The Senedd has powers over health, education, local government, some taxation and economic development in Wales. While not as extensive as Scotland's Holyrood, devolution has given Welsh politics a distinct character. Key issues in 2026 include NHS waiting lists (Wales has the worst in the UK), schools performance and questions around Welsh language policy — all devolved matters where the Senedd has direct responsibility.

Why Reform polls stronger here

Reform UK's 19% Welsh polling is notably higher than their 14.3% UK-wide 2024 result. Wales has a high proportion of post-industrial communities — former mining and steelworks towns — that have felt economic neglect across decades. Brexit support was stronger in Wales (52.5% Leave in 2016) than the UK average, and long-term Labour governance of the Senedd has created a pool of disenchanted former Labour voters who are receptive to Reform's anti-establishment message.