What did voters think of the October 2024 Autumn Budget?

Public reaction to the October 2024 Autumn Budget was broadly negative. The winter fuel payment cut for non-pension-credit recipients was opposed by 59% of adults. The employer National Insurance increase was opposed by 48%. NHS funding increases were supported by 76%, providing the Budget's most popular element. Overall, 47% said the Budget would make them personally worse off.

Why was the 2024 Budget unpopular?

The 2024 Budget was unpopular primarily because it broke specific manifesto pledges — particularly on employer National Insurance — and targeted pensioners through the winter fuel payment cut at a time of high energy costs. The Budget improved Labour's credibility on fiscal responsibility with markets and some centrist voters, but damaged trust among traditional Labour supporters and pensioners who voted Labour in 2024 for the first time in years.

How did the winter fuel cut affect Labour polling?

The winter fuel payment cut for around 10 million pensioners was among the most damaging single decisions for Labour polling. Labour fell approximately 3-4 points in headline polls in the weeks following the announcement. The policy affected older voters who had switched to Labour in 2024, contributing to Labour's collapse from 33.7% at the general election to 18-22% in 2026 polls.

How did different demographic groups react to the 2024 Budget?

Pensioners were the most hostile to the Budget due to the winter fuel cut, with net opposition of -41 among over-65s. Workers in small businesses and self-employed people opposed the employer NI rise most strongly. Young renters approved of the minimum wage rise (+72%) and capital gains tax change. Labour voters were more likely to approve the Budget overall (61% approval among 2024 Labour voters); Reform voters were the most hostile at 14% approval.

Government Tracker — Budget 2024

October 2024 Budget: How Did Voters React?

Q: Did the 2024 Budget meet voter expectations set during the election campaign?

The 2024 Budget broadly exceeded the expectations Labour set during the campaign in scale of tax rises and spending, but fell below expectations on growth and public service improvement. 47% of voters said the Budget would make them personally worse off — a higher figure than equivalent reactions to Conservative budgets in 2022-2023. The mismatch between Labour's campaign optimism and the Budget's austerity framing was a key driver of dissatisfaction.

Q: Were the Budget's fiscal rules credible to voters?

Voter assessment of Budget fiscal credibility was mixed. 52% said they trusted the Chancellor to manage public finances responsibly, a relatively high figure given overall government dissatisfaction. However, 48% said the tax rises would damage economic growth. City and market reaction was broadly positive — bond yields remained stable — which Labour cited as evidence of credibility with investors even as public polling showed consumer confidence low.

The Autumn Budget introduced a National Insurance rise, scrapped the Winter Fuel Payment, and pledged record NHS investment. Public verdict: mixed.

38%

Approve Budget overall

42%

Disapprove Budget overall

59%

Oppose winter fuel cut

76%

Back NHS funding rise

Overall Budget Approval

Oct 2024 → May 2026

Question: “Do you approve or disapprove of the October 2024 Autumn Budget overall?” Source: YouGov / Ipsos / Survation composite.

Source: Composite of YouGov, Ipsos and Survation, October–November 2024.

Policy-by-Policy Reactions

Support vs. Oppose

% support vs. % oppose for each Budget measure. Source: YouGov polling, October–November 2024.

Source: YouGov polling, October–November 2024.

Budget Measures: Full Polling Breakdown

Budget Measure	Support	Oppose	Net	Key polling note
NHS funding increase (+£22bn)	76%	12%	+64	Most popular measure by far
Capital gains tax rise	54%	28%	+26	Strong cross-party support
Employer NI rise (+1.2pp to 15%)	41%	48%	−7	Concern re jobs and wages
Winter Fuel Payment cut	31%	59%	−28	Most opposed measure; pensioner backlash
Minimum wage rise to £12.21	72%	16%	+56	Strongly popular across all demographics
Inheritance tax on pension pots	48%	35%	+13	Farmers protest drove late opposition
Council tax reform	44%	28%	+16	Varies significantly by region
Fuel duty freeze	61%	22%	+39	Popular with motorists; criticised by greens

Perceived Impact: Will the Budget Make You Worse Off?

% who said the Budget would leave them personally better off, worse off, or about the same. Source: YouGov, June 2026.

Worse off43%

About the same39%

Better off11%

Don’t know7%

Context: The Budget Political Impact

The October 2024 Autumn Budget was the first Labour Budget in 14 years. Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced £40bn in tax rises alongside a significant increase in public spending, primarily directed at the NHS.

The political damage came primarily from two decisions: the abolition of the Winter Fuel Payment for most pensioners (saving £1.5bn) and the rise in employer National Insurance from 13.8% to 15%. The Winter Fuel cut proved particularly toxic — opposed by 59% of voters — as it affected approximately 10 million pensioners who had previously received the payment.

In contrast, the £22bn increase in NHS funding was backed by 76% of voters across all parties, and the minimum wage rise to £12.21 was broadly popular. The Budget illustrates a core tension in Labour strategy: popular investment pledges combined with unpopular funding mechanisms.

Following the Budget, the government overall satisfaction rating fell from 36% to 30% within two months. By May 2026, that figure stands at 24%.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the most unpopular Budget measure?

The removal of the Winter Fuel Payment from most pensioners was the most opposed measure, with 59% of voters against it. The payment had previously been universal for over-66s; removing it from those not receiving Pension Credit affected around 10 million pensioners.

What was the most popular Budget measure?

The £22 billion increase in NHS funding was backed by 76% of voters — a net approval of +64%. This was followed by the minimum wage rise to £12.21 (net +56%) and the fuel duty freeze (net +39%).

Did the Budget affect Labour poll ratings?

Yes significantly. Government satisfaction fell from 36% in October 2024 to 30% by December 2024. By May 2026 it stands at 24%. The Budget was not the only factor in Labour decline, but it was the single biggest trigger for the sharp fall in approval during the winter of 2024.

Did the Budget meet voter expectations?

The Budget exceeded Labour’s campaign-set expectations in scale of tax rises, but fell below expectations on growth and public service improvement. 47% of voters said the Budget would make them personally worse off — a higher proportion than reactions to equivalent Conservative budgets in 2022–2023. The contrast between Labour’s election optimism and the Budget’s austerity framing was a key driver of early dissatisfaction.

How did different demographic groups react?

Pensioners were most hostile due to the winter fuel cut (−41 net among over-65s). Small business owners and the self-employed opposed the employer NI rise most strongly. Young renters approved the minimum wage rise (+72%) and capital gains tax change. Among 2024 Labour voters, 61% approved the Budget overall; Reform UK voters were most hostile at just 14% approval.

Were the Budget’s fiscal rules credible to voters?

52% of voters said they trusted the Chancellor to manage public finances responsibly — a relatively high figure given overall government dissatisfaction. However, 48% said the tax rises would damage economic growth. Bond market reaction was broadly positive, which Labour cited as evidence of credibility with investors even as consumer confidence remained low.