After a period when support for Scottish independence had fallen to around 44–46%, new polling from Survation and YouGov in April and May 2026 shows the Yes/No split has returned to 50/50 among decided voters. The timing — less than two years into a Labour government — raises significant questions about the durability of the Unionist coalition that won in 2014.
The Recovery in Yes Support: What Changed
Independence support dropped after the SNP’s internal difficulties in 2023 and 2024, when the Humza Yousaf leadership crisis and the merger of the independence movement’s finances dominated Scottish politics. At the same time, Labour’s surge ahead of the 2024 UK general election offered an alternative route for change-seeking Scottish voters who hoped a Starmer government would deliver meaningful improvements.
The disillusionment with Labour in Westminster — particularly the winter fuel payment cut, which disproportionately affected Scottish pensioners in colder weather — has accelerated a return to independence as a vehicle for change. A Survation poll from April 2026 tracking monthly independence support recorded its fastest single-month rise in two years, with Yes moving from 47% to 51% among decided voters in the space of weeks following the winter fuel announcement.
The Generational Split: Why Yes Leads Long-Term
The structural case for why independence support is likely to drift upward over time rests on the age cross-breaks. Among Scottish voters aged 18–34, support for independence runs at 65–68% in most recent polling. Among 35–54 year olds it is roughly 52–55%. Among over-65s it falls to around 33%. Since older voters who voted No in 2014 are being replaced in the electorate by younger voters who lean heavily Yes, the base population is gradually shifting.
This demographic arithmetic does not guarantee eventual independence — views can change and the generational replacement is slow — but it means the Unionist side cannot rely on the age distribution it benefited from in 2014 being maintained indefinitely. The SNP has been aware of this dynamic for years and its campaign materials increasingly target younger voters for whom independence is a defining political identity rather than a contentious choice.
The SNP’s Position: Rebuilding After Internal Turmoil
The SNP under John Swinney has stabilised after the turbulence of 2023–2024, though the party remains significantly below its peak polling of 2021. In voting intention for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP is tracking at around 35–38%, ahead of Labour at 26–28% in Scottish Parliament constituency vote projections. The party is no longer in existential danger, but neither does it have the dominance that made a second referendum seem plausible in 2021.
The independence movement remains broader than the SNP, with the Scottish Greens also strongly pro-independence. The combined Yes-supporting party vote in Scotland currently runs at around 45–48% in Holyrood polling, which is somewhat below the Yes/No independence split — reflecting the fact that some voters who would vote Yes in a referendum nonetheless prefer to vote Labour or Lib Dem in parliamentary elections.
The Referendum Question: When and How
A second independence referendum faces the fundamental constraint that it requires either Westminster agreement under the 1998 Scotland Act framework, or a legal challenge to establish whether Holyrood can legislate for one unilaterally. The Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that Holyrood cannot hold a binding referendum without Westminster’s agreement. The Labour government has been explicit that no section 30 order will be granted before the 2030 general election.
Polling on whether voters want a referendum held soon shows a more complex picture than independence support alone. Around 43% of Scottish voters say there should be a referendum within five years, 28% say it should happen but not yet, and 24% say it should not happen at all. Even among Yes voters, a significant minority say the priority should be economic recovery and public service improvement before another referendum is held.
Currency, the EU, and the Unresolved Big Questions
The 2014 campaign was defined by the question of which currency an independent Scotland would use. That question remains unresolved. Polling consistently shows that when voters are asked about independence alongside the currency question, Yes support drops by 5–8 points among those who are soft Yes or undecided. The independence movement has not resolved whether to pursue a Scottish pound, sterling in a currency union, or immediate euro membership.
EU membership is a significant pull factor for pro-European Scottish voters who feel Brexit was imposed against Scotland’s wishes. Scotland voted 62% Remain in 2016, and polling suggests that an independent Scotland would likely rejoin the EU — a prospect that is popular with Yes voters and a source of concern for No voters who trade heavily with England. The interplay of these economic questions will shape whatever future referendum campaign emerges. For current Scottish voting intention, see our SNP polling tracker.