Scottish independence polling in 2026 presents one of the most evenly divided electorates in modern UK history. Averaged across surveys conducted in the first four months of 2026, support for independence (Yes) and remaining in the UK (No) sit at approximately 50% each, excluding undecideds. The picture is one of profound stability — and profound uncertainty.
Where the Polls Stand
The last five Scottish independence polls, conducted between January and April 2026, show the following results when undecideds are excluded: Yes ranging from 48% to 52%, No ranging from 48% to 52%. No single poll has shown a lead larger than three points in either direction. This represents a degree of opinion stability that makes prediction exceptionally difficult and underlines the risk for any party in forcing a referendum it does not have a clear route to winning.
The picture is different when undecideds are included. In a May 2026 Panelbase poll of 1,010 Scottish adults, Yes polled at 43%, No at 43%, undecided at 14%. The composition of the undecided cohort — younger, more likely to be recent arrivals to Scotland, and more likely to be from minority ethnic backgrounds — could tip the balance in either direction depending on how they broke in a live referendum campaign.
The SNP’s Position
The SNP under John Swinney enters 2026 in a structurally weaker position than it occupied under Nicola Sturgeon. The party lost 38 of its 48 Scottish Westminster seats in the 2024 general election, retaining only nine, largely in rural and island constituencies. In the Scottish Parliament, the SNP leads a minority government, dependent on Green support on key votes.
SNP vote intention for Holyrood, averaged across 2026 polls, stands at approximately 34% for the constituency vote — well below the 47% the party achieved in 2011. Labour has recovered to around 29% for Holyrood constituencies, and the Conservatives remain on approximately 18%. The SNP remains the largest party, but its dominance of Scottish politics has been significantly eroded.
Crucially, there has been a growing divergence between support for the SNP and support for independence. In 2014–2020, the two measures tracked closely. By 2026, polling shows that approximately 60% of SNP voters support independence but only around 78% of Yes voters support the SNP — an increasing proportion of independence supporters have moved their voting preference to Labour or the Greens, or abstained, while remaining committed to the constitutional cause.
Labour’s Scottish Revival
Labour’s return to second place in Scottish Westminster polling represents one of the more significant shifts in British electoral geography. In 2019, Labour held one Scottish seat; in 2024 it won 37. This recovery has been driven largely by tactical and anti-SNP voting rather than a strong positive case for Labour, but it has nonetheless rebuilt the party’s Scottish infrastructure substantially.
For the constitutional question, Labour’s revival matters because the party is firmly unionist. Scottish Labour’s leader Anas Sarwar has consistently opposed a second independence referendum, and the UK Labour government has made clear that granting a Section 30 order to enable a legal referendum is not on its agenda during this parliament. This hard block on a legal referendum represents the most significant structural obstacle to independence in the short term.
Likelihood of a Second Referendum
Polling on the process question — whether there should be another referendum, regardless of how people would vote — shows that 48% of Scottish adults support holding indyref2 in the next five years, 37% oppose it, and 15% are undecided. Support for a referendum is, as expected, higher than support for independence itself, since some unionists support the principle of a democratic vote even while expecting to win it.
The practical route to a second referendum involves either Westminster granting a Section 30 order (highly unlikely under the current Labour government) or the Scottish Parliament legislating for a referendum without Westminster consent (legally contested and politically high-risk). The SNP’s 2023 Supreme Court defeat established that Holyrood cannot legislate for a binding referendum without Westminster agreement. Track all Scottish polling data on our dedicated Scotland page.
Related: Scotland polling hub → • SNP party profile →