UK Opinion Polls June 2026: Reform UK Leads at 27.2%

The June 2026 UK polling picture shows Reform UK consolidated as the largest party in vote intention at 27.2%, ahead of Labour on 19% and the Conservatives on 18.6%. The poll-of-polls tracker has held broadly stable since May, with Reform’s lead over Labour standing at approximately 8.2 points.

What the June 2026 Polls Show

Reform UK’s position at 27.2% in June 2026 represents a 13.2-point rise from its 14% result at the July 2024 general election. The party has held above 25% consistently since October 2025, consolidating rather than extending its surge. Nigel Farage’s leadership continues to drive Reform’s support, particularly among working-class voters in post-industrial England.

Labour’s position at 19% is its lowest sustained level since the polling collapse began in late 2024. The party won 34% at the general election; it has now lost approximately 15 points in under two years. The drop is concentrated among working-class voters, older voters, and the Red Wall seats that Labour won back in 2024. Our full voting intention tracker shows the month-by-month trend.

The Conservatives at 18.6% are performing above their 2024 general election result of 24%, suggesting that some 2024 Reform voters are returning to the Tories under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, or that the party is holding its remaining base more firmly. The Greens at 13.8% represent a substantial rise from their 7% at the 2024 election, reflecting gains among younger, urban, and university-educated voters dissatisfied with Labour.

Starmer Approval: -45% Net

Keir Starmer’s net approval stands at -45% in June 2026, making him the least popular of all major party leaders. The leader approval tracker shows his ratings have deteriorated steadily since taking office in July 2024, when he was at approximately -3%. The June 2026 figure of -45% represents a 42-point decline in 23 months.

Kemi Badenoch sits at approximately -4% net approval in June 2026, a significant improvement from -22% when she became Conservative leader in November 2024. Nigel Farage is at approximately -14% net, reflecting near-universal approval among Reform’s own voters but strong disapproval from everyone else. Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats is at approximately -6%.

Key Polls Published in June 2026

The following major polls from BPC-member firms have contributed to the June 2026 poll-of-polls average:

• YouGov — weekly tracker, largest ongoing UK polling series. Reform UK 27.2%, Labour 19%.
• More in Common — regular fieldwork, strong on cross-tab detail. Consistent with consensus.
• Redfield & Wilton — daily tracking and weekly omnibus. Known for Reform UK high numbers.
• Ipsos — monthly tracker, older-established firm with face-to-face methodology.
• Survation — monthly polls, phone and online combined.

What the Polls Mean for the 2029 Election

Under First Past the Post, the current polling would likely produce a hung parliament with no party close to a majority. MRP modelling based on June 2026 vote shares suggests Reform UK could win 60–120 seats, Labour could fall to 220–270, and the Conservatives could win 100–140. The Liberal Democrats could hold or gain seats in the Blue Wall while the Greens might win 5–15 seats.

The critical variable is whether these poll leads translate into seats. Reform UK’s vote is geographically spread, which under FPTP means it would win fewer seats than its raw vote share implies. Labour’s collapse is concentrated in marginals — seats it won by small margins in 2024 — which makes it vulnerable to outsized seat losses even with a modest vote drop. See our constituency-by-constituency analysis for the full breakdown.

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