YouGov May 2026 Poll: Labour 27%, Reform 26%, Tories 23%

YouGov’s latest voting intention survey, conducted 7–8 May 2026 among 1,847 GB adults, places Labour narrowly ahead on 27% — but only by a single percentage point over Reform UK on 26%. The Conservatives trail in third on 23%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11%, the Greens on 7%, and the SNP on 4% among Scottish respondents.

Fieldwork and Methodology

The survey was conducted online using YouGov’s proprietary panel of approximately 6 million members in the UK. Fieldwork ran on 7 and 8 May 2026. The total sample of 1,847 respondents was weighted to be representative of the GB adult population by age, gender, education, region and past vote (2024 general election). The margin of error at a 95% confidence interval is approximately ±2.3 percentage points.

YouGov uses a “most likely to vote” filter, excluding respondents with a stated likelihood of voting below 5 out of 10. This typically suppresses turnout in the 18–34 age group, where stated likelihood is lower, and may slightly understate Labour and Green support relative to the raw figures. The raw (unfiltered) cross-tabs show Labour at 29% and the Greens at 8%.

Key Changes vs April 2026

The most significant movement in the May survey is the continued erosion of Labour’s lead. In YouGov’s April 2026 poll (n=1,812), Labour stood at 28% and Reform at 25%. The one-point shifts in each direction represent the narrowest gap YouGov has recorded between the two parties. The gap had been as wide as seven points (Labour 32%, Reform 25%) in August 2025 before collapsing through the autumn and winter.

The Conservative number, unchanged at 23%, has been notably stable for six months, suggesting the party has found a floor — around the one-in-four voters who identify as consistently centre-right and are not yet prepared to move to Reform. The Liberal Democrats, also at 11%, are holding the “Remain-leaning, southern professional” demographic they consolidated in 2024.

Sub-Group Analysis: Where Labour Is Losing

The cross-breaks reveal that Labour’s erosion is concentrated among specific demographics. Among voters aged 50–64, Labour trails Reform by eight points (24% vs 32%), a reversal from GE2024 where the party ran broadly level with this cohort. Among voters without a university degree — the “Red Wall” profile — Reform leads Labour by 11 points (35% vs 24%).

Labour’s relative strengths remain in the 18–29 age group (Labour 38%, Reform 12%) and in London (Labour 42%, Reform 14%). However, these are demographically concentrated in seats the party already holds safely; they do not translate into gains in the marginals that will determine whether Labour can maintain its majority at the next election.

The Most Important Issues: What Drives the Numbers

YouGov also asked respondents to name the most important issues facing Britain. Immigration topped the list at 47%, followed by the NHS at 41%, cost of living at 38%, and economic growth at 29%. The dominance of immigration as the leading issue is a structural advantage for Reform UK, which leads on that issue by a substantial margin over all other parties.

The NHS remains Labour’s strongest issue by trust, but the gap has closed: 29% trust Labour most on health, versus 12% for the Conservatives and 9% for Reform. That Labour no longer enjoys the 2:1 or 3:1 advantage it has historically held on health policy represents a significant structural shift in the polling environment. The full data tables are available on YouGov’s website. Track the ongoing voting intention series here.