Conservative Leadership History

The Conservative polling story since 2010 is one of fragile dominance followed by spectacular self-destruction. Two election victories under Cameron, a reduced majority under May that triggered a crisis, a Johnson landslide that was squandered within three years, the catastrophic 45-day Truss experiment, and Sunak inheriting a position too damaged to save. The result: 121 seats in 2024 and a continuing slow recovery under Kemi Badenoch.

Sources: YouGov, Ipsos, ComRes, ICM, Techne. Annual average or election result where indicated. Truss Q3 2022 figure reflects the mini-budget polling collapse.

David Cameron became leader of the Conservative Party in December 2005, committing to a modernisation agenda that tried to broaden the party appeal beyond its traditional base. He entered the 2010 election leading polls comfortably but failed to secure an outright majority, winning 36.1% and 306 seats — sufficient to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats but short of the dominance the polls had suggested.

The coalition years were characterised by broadly stable Conservative polling in the high 30s. The economic narrative of austerity and deficit reduction resonated with enough voters to maintain credibility. In 2015 the party won an outright majority on 36.9% and 331 seats — a better result than almost any pollster had predicted and a validation of Cameron strategy against a Labour opposition that polled at 30.4%.

The Brexit referendum of June 2016 ended Cameron tenure. He had campaigned for Remain and committed to resign if the result went against him. It did. He left office with the party polling at around 36%. The gamble of calling the referendum without being confident of the result proved the defining mistake of his career.

Theresa May succeeded Cameron in July 2016 in an uncontested leadership process. Her early months in office produced strong polling — the Conservatives reached 48% in some surveys in early 2017, as Labour under Corbyn struggled at 23–26%. When May called a snap election in April 2017 the expectation of a significantly enlarged majority was near-universal.

The 2017 election campaign was one of the most disastrous in recent Conservative history. May personal style, the social care policy reversal described as a dementia tax, and a Labour campaign that dramatically exceeded expectations combined to wipe out the Conservative lead. The final result was 42.4% to Labour 40% — a majority lost and a hung parliament that would make Brexit negotiations essentially ungovernable.

May resigned in June 2019 having failed to get her Brexit withdrawal agreement through Parliament on three separate occasions. Polling in her final months had Conservative support at around 28–30%, having collapsed from the 48% heights of early 2017 — a fall of nearly 20 percentage points in under two years.

Boris Johnson won the leadership in July 2019 on a promise to deliver Brexit. He called a general election in December 2019, winning 43.6% of the vote and 365 seats — the largest Conservative majority since 1987. The result was built on a coalition of traditional Conservative voters and Leave-voting Labour heartland constituencies in the Midlands and North, the so-called red wall seats.

At its peak in 2020–2021, the Johnson government polled at 44–46%, reflecting both the Brexit-delivery bounce and a rally-round-the-flag effect during the early pandemic. The vaccine rollout of early 2021 pushed Johnson personal ratings to their highest points and kept Conservative VI in the mid-40s throughout the spring.

Partygate began destroying this advantage in November 2021, when reports of gatherings in Downing Street during lockdown first emerged. By January 2022, Labour had overtaken the Conservatives in polling. The slide accelerated through 2022, driven by the cost-of-living crisis, the Owen Paterson affair, and sustained revelations about Downing Street culture during the pandemic. Johnson resigned in July 2022 with Conservative VI at around 36%.

Liz Truss won the Conservative leadership contest in September 2022, defeating Rishi Sunak among the party membership. She entered Downing Street with Conservative polling at around 36% — already behind Labour but within recovery range. Within weeks, that recovery had become a catastrophe.

The September 2022 mini-budget, presented by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, announced 45 billion pounds of unfunded tax cuts. Financial markets reacted immediately and dramatically: the pound fell to near-parity with the dollar, UK gilt yields surged, and the Bank of England was forced to intervene to prevent a pension fund crisis. The political polling followed the markets: within days of the mini-budget, Conservative VI had fallen from 36% to 26%, with Labour leading by 30 points in some surveys.

Truss served 45 days as Prime Minister — the shortest tenure in British history. She reversed the mini-budget, sacked Kwarteng, but could not recover her authority. She resigned in October 2022. The polling crash she triggered left the Conservatives at a structural disadvantage from which they never recovered before the 2024 election.

Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister in October 2022, becoming the first British Asian Prime Minister and the youngest in modern history. He inherited a Conservative polling position of around 26% — the legacy of the Truss mini-budget. His central task was stabilisation, and in narrow polling terms he achieved it: Conservative VI recovered to the low-to-mid 20s through 2023 but never approached the levels needed to make the 2024 election competitive.

Throughout 2023 and into 2024, the Conservatives polled at 22–27% while Labour maintained a consistent 15–20 point lead. Economic stagnation, continued high interest rates from the Bank of England responding to the post-mini-budget inflation spike, and the residual damage from the Johnson and Truss years meant that Sunak reputation for economic competence — his most compelling claim to leadership — never fully translated into polling recovery.

Sunak called the general election for July 2024. The result was 23.7% of the vote and 121 seats — the worst Conservative result since 1906. Sunak resigned immediately as party leader. The decline from Johnson 43.6% in 2019 to Sunak 23.7% in 2024 represents a fall of 20 percentage points in a single parliamentary cycle, driven principally by self-inflicted political crises.

Kemi Badenoch won the Conservative leadership in November 2024, defeating Robert Jenrick in the final round of the membership vote. She entered the role with the party at 22% in the polls — below even the Truss nadir in terms of credibility and a fractured parliamentary party of only 121 MPs.

Badenoch immediate strategic challenge was to define what the Conservative Party stands for in a political landscape where Reform UK has occupied the traditional Conservative territory on immigration and economic nationalism. Her positioning has emphasised cultural conservatism, economic rigour, and a contrast with what she describes as Labour statism — but this message has yet to translate into a significant polling recovery.

By May 2026, the Conservatives poll at 19% — up three points from their 2024 nadir but still below Reform UK (28%) and Labour (18%). The party is effectively in a three-way contest for second place, with the risk that a further Reform surge could push the Conservatives into third. With the next election not due until 2029, Badenoch has time to rebuild, but the structural challenge of a fragmented right-of-centre vote is formidable.