Labour Manifesto 2024 vs. Delivery
The 2024 Labour Manifesto: Key Pledges Tracked
| Pledge | Manifesto Commitment | Status (May 2026) | Polling Reception |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHS Waiting Lists | 40,000 extra appointments per week; 18-week standard within 5 years | Partial — 40k extra appointments funded; 7m+ on waiting list; 18 weeks years away | Net negative: 45% say NHS has not improved; 18% say improved |
| Clean Energy by 2030 | 100% clean electricity by 2030; GB Energy created | On track structurally — GB Energy operational; offshore wind expanded; 2030 target aspirational | Net positive: voters broadly support clean energy direction |
| Employment Rights Bill | Day-one employment rights; ban on zero-hours contracts; trade union reform | Delivered — Employment Rights Act passed 2025; day-one unfair dismissal rights enacted | Split: trade unions positive; business groups negative |
| No Income Tax Rise | No rises in income tax, NI, or VAT rates for working people | Partially kept — rates unchanged but threshold freeze extended; employer NI raised in Oct 2024 Budget | Net negative: voters regard threshold freeze as stealth tax; 38% say Budget broke promise |
| 1.5 Million New Homes | 1.5 million homes over Parliament; planning reform; new towns | Planning reform legislated; housing starts rising but below trajectory for 1.5m target | Supporters welcome intent; sceptical of delivery pace |
| Fiscal Rules | Stability rules: current budget balance; debt falling as % of GDP | Strained — October 2024 Budget required significant tax rises and spending resets to maintain headroom | 42% say Labour has not been honest about economic inheritance |
| Workers Rights | Genuine living wage; fire and rehire ban; right to disconnect | National Living Wage raised; fire and rehire banned in Employment Rights Act | Broadly positive among lower-income voters |
| Crime and Policing | 13,000 additional neighbourhood police and community support officers | Recruitment programme begun; 5,000 additional officers in pipeline; full 13,000 by end of Parliament | Reform UK voters unconvinced; Labour base neutral |
| Education | Hire 6,500 new teachers; mental health support in schools; curriculum review | Curriculum review under way; teacher recruitment partially progressing; VAT on private schools implemented Oct 2024 | VAT on private schools divisive: 36% support, 41% oppose |
| Devolution | More devolution to English regions; elected mayors; power beyond Westminster | English devolution programme progressing; new mayoral areas created; English Devolution White Paper published | Low salience; voters unaware of most devolution changes |
The October 2024 Budget: Where the Polling Collapsed
Winter Fuel Payments
Restricted from universal to means-tested, removing payments from approximately 10 million pensioners. The policy saved ~£1.5 billion but was deeply unpopular. 68% of the public opposed the change in polling. Reform UK and the Conservatives attacked it heavily. Labour MPs in marginal seats faced enormous constituent anger.
Employer National Insurance
Employer NI contributions raised from 13.8% to 15%; the threshold lowered from £9,100 to £5,000. Business groups argued this was a tax on jobs. Polling found 48% opposed, 29% supported. Many small businesses and hospitality employers cited it as damaging.
Inheritance Tax on Farms
Family farm inheritance tax relief capped at £1 million, with agricultural property above that threshold subject to IHT. Farmers protests in London followed. Polling showed 52% opposed among rural voters. Labour denied most farms would be affected; farmers and the NFU disputed the figures.
Pledge-by-Pledge Polling: What Do Voters Think?
| Policy Area | Approve (%) | Disapprove (%) | Don't Know (%) | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Rights Act | 48 | 28 | 24 | +20 |
| Clean Energy / GB Energy | 55 | 22 | 23 | +33 |
| House building plans | 41 | 35 | 24 | +6 |
| National Living Wage rise | 62 | 18 | 20 | +44 |
| NHS investment plans | 38 | 42 | 20 | −4 |
| Winter fuel payment cut | 24 | 65 | 11 | −41 |
| Employer NI rise | 29 | 52 | 19 | −23 |
| Farm inheritance tax change | 31 | 48 | 21 | −17 |
| VAT on private schools | 36 | 41 | 23 | −5 |
| Keir Starmer as PM | 26 | 55 | 19 | −29 |
Source: Aggregate of Redfield & Wilton, YouGov, Ipsos polling April–May 2026 (indicative).
Delivery Scorecard: Red / Amber / Green
Delivered (Green)
- Employment Rights Act
- GB Energy created
- National Living Wage rise
- Fire and rehire ban
- Devolution White Paper
- VAT on private schools
- English Devolution Act
Partial / In Progress (Amber)
- NHS waiting lists (rising, not falling)
- 1.5m homes (on track but slow start)
- Clean energy 2030 (structural progress, timeline uncertain)
- 13,000 police (5,000 recruited so far)
- Teacher recruitment (curriculum review ongoing)
Pledges Under Strain (Red)
- Threshold freeze = stealth tax
- Winter fuel cut contradicts no cuts pledge
- Welfare reform backlash
- Economic growth target missed in early years
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Labour break its pledge not to raise taxes?
Labour did not raise income tax, National Insurance (for employees), or VAT rates — the three specific taxes it pledged to protect. However, it raised employer National Insurance from 13.8% to 15%, extended income tax threshold freezes, and introduced VAT on private schools. Many voters regard this as breaking the spirit of the pledge even if the letter was technically kept. 38% of voters in polling say the Budget broke Labour’s tax promise.
Why has Labour polling collapsed so sharply?
Labour’s 2024 win was built on a historically low 33% vote share — reflecting desire to remove the Conservatives more than strong Labour enthusiasm. Once in government, the October 2024 Budget controversies — winter fuel payment cuts, employer NI rise, farm inheritance tax changes — eroded support rapidly. Reform UK absorbed most of the disillusionment, particularly among working-class voters in the Midlands and North. See the voting intention tracker for the full collapse from 33% to 18%.
Is Keir Starmer in danger of losing the next election?
At current polling (Labour 18%, Reform 28%, Conservatives 19%), Labour faces an extremely difficult path at the 2029 General Election. However, Labour’s 412-seat majority provides significant cushion — it could lose over 100 seats and still remain the largest party. Elections are also fought in constituencies under First Past the Post, which can produce very different outcomes from national polling percentages.
What are Labour’s biggest policy successes so far?
The Employment Rights Act (passed 2025) is polling at +20 net approval — Labour’s most popular delivery. The National Living Wage rise has +44 net approval, the highest of any single policy. Clean energy direction is broadly supported at +33. These popular deliveries are being overshadowed by the Budget controversies in public perception, but they represent a genuine policy record that Labour will campaign on in 2029.
When will NHS waiting lists start to fall significantly?
Labour’s NHS 10 Year Plan, published in January 2026, sets a target of returning to 18-week standard treatment times by 2029. NHS England data shows the waiting list fell from a peak of 7.8 million to 7.1 million in early 2026, driven by the 40,000 additional appointments per week funded since October 2024. At the current rate of reduction, pre-pandemic levels (below 4 million) are unlikely to be reached within this Parliament. The NHS remains the public’s top priority issue and the single biggest driver of Labour’s approval rating changes.
What did Labour’s 2024 manifesto not include?
The 2024 Labour manifesto did not include: specific immigration targets or net migration commitments; the farm inheritance tax changes introduced in the October 2024 Budget; the employer National Insurance rise from 13.8% to 15%; or the detail of welfare reform proposals announced in 2026. The Budget measures that caused Labour’s sharpest polling collapse were fiscal decisions made after the election. This gap between manifesto commitments and governing choices is why 38% of voters in polling say the Budget broke Labour’s promises, even though specific tax rates were not formally pledged.
Explore More
Labour Party Polls
Full Labour polling data: voting intention, Starmer approval, and the collapse from 33% to 18% in 24 months.
Reform UK at 28%
The primary beneficiary of Labour’s collapse. Reform UK leads all polling and is absorbing former Labour and Conservative voters alike.
UK Voting Intention
Current poll of polls across all UK parties. Reform 28%, Conservatives 19%, Labour 18%, Greens 15%.
Welfare & PIP Cuts
The welfare reform controversy — 52% oppose PIP cuts, 71% opposed winter fuel cut. The Budget policies that damaged Labour most.
Keir Starmer Approval
Starmer net approval at −44% — among the worst for any sitting PM. Why his personal ratings have collapsed further than even Labour’s vote share.
General Election 2029
Can Labour hold power? Seat projections, scenarios, and the scale of Reform UK’s challenge to the governing party.
Video: Further Analysis
Video: Labour's 2024 manifesto and the governing record — why the pledges made in opposition are being judged so harshly by voters in 2026.