What were Labour main 2024 manifesto pledges?

Labour 2024 manifesto centred on NHS waiting list reduction, clean energy by 2030, a new Employment Rights Bill, GB Energy creation, 1.5 million new homes, no tax rises on working people, and fiscal stability rules.

Has Labour delivered on its NHS pledge?

NHS waiting lists remain above 7 million. Labour has funded additional appointments but the 18-week target remains years away. Polling on NHS satisfaction has improved slightly but remains net negative.

What happened to Labour energy pledge?

GB Energy was created as pledged. Offshore wind targets are progressing. The clean energy by 2030 target is widely regarded as aspirational given grid infrastructure timelines, but renewable investment has increased.

How has Labour polling changed since winning in 2024?

Labour fell from 33% at the July 2024 General Election to approximately 18% by May 2026 -- a 15-point collapse. It is now the third-placed party behind Reform UK (28%) and Conservatives (19%).

Why has Labour collapsed in the polls?

Labour polling collapse reflects the October 2024 Budget controversies including frozen thresholds, inheritance tax on farms, means-tested winter fuel payments, welfare reform backlash, and Keir Starmer personal approval rating of -35%.

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Labour Manifesto 2024 vs. Delivery

Two years into government — tracking key pledges, polling reactions, and what has changed

18%

Labour VI (May 2026)

33%

2024 GE Result

−15pts

Polling collapse

−35

Starmer net approval

The 2024 Labour Manifesto: Key Pledges Tracked

The mandate: Labour won 412 seats with 33% of the vote in July 2024 on a platform of stability, change, and public service renewal. The manifesto was deliberately cautious — fiscal rules, no income tax rises — with headline pledges centred on NHS, clean energy, housing, and workers rights.

Pledge	Manifesto Commitment	Status (May 2026)	Polling Reception
NHS Waiting Lists	40,000 extra appointments per week; 18-week standard within 5 years	Partial — 40k extra appointments funded; 7m+ on waiting list; 18 weeks years away	Net negative: 45% say NHS has not improved; 18% say improved
Clean Energy by 2030	100% clean electricity by 2030; GB Energy created	On track structurally — GB Energy operational; offshore wind expanded; 2030 target aspirational	Net positive: voters broadly support clean energy direction
Employment Rights Bill	Day-one employment rights; ban on zero-hours contracts; trade union reform	Delivered — Employment Rights Act passed 2025; day-one unfair dismissal rights enacted	Split: trade unions positive; business groups negative
No Income Tax Rise	No rises in income tax, NI, or VAT rates for working people	Partially kept — rates unchanged but threshold freeze extended; employer NI raised in Oct 2024 Budget	Net negative: voters regard threshold freeze as stealth tax; 38% say Budget broke promise
1.5 Million New Homes	1.5 million homes over Parliament; planning reform; new towns	Planning reform legislated; housing starts rising but below trajectory for 1.5m target	Supporters welcome intent; sceptical of delivery pace
Fiscal Rules	Stability rules: current budget balance; debt falling as % of GDP	Strained — October 2024 Budget required significant tax rises and spending resets to maintain headroom	42% say Labour has not been honest about economic inheritance
Workers Rights	Genuine living wage; fire and rehire ban; right to disconnect	National Living Wage raised; fire and rehire banned in Employment Rights Act	Broadly positive among lower-income voters
Crime and Policing	13,000 additional neighbourhood police and community support officers	Recruitment programme begun; 5,000 additional officers in pipeline; full 13,000 by end of Parliament	Reform UK voters unconvinced; Labour base neutral
Education	Hire 6,500 new teachers; mental health support in schools; curriculum review	Curriculum review under way; teacher recruitment partially progressing; VAT on private schools implemented Oct 2024	VAT on private schools divisive: 36% support, 41% oppose
Devolution	More devolution to English regions; elected mayors; power beyond Westminster	English devolution programme progressing; new mayoral areas created; English Devolution White Paper published	Low salience; voters unaware of most devolution changes

The October 2024 Budget: Where the Polling Collapsed

The turning point: Labour polling began falling from 33% in July 2024 but accelerated sharply after the October 2024 Budget. The measures that caused the most political damage were the removal of winter fuel payments from non-means-tested pensioners, the extension of income tax threshold freezes, and the rise in employer National Insurance contributions.

Winter Fuel Payments

Restricted from universal to means-tested, removing payments from approximately 10 million pensioners. The policy saved ~£1.5 billion but was deeply unpopular. 68% of the public opposed the change in polling. Reform UK and the Conservatives attacked it heavily. Labour MPs in marginal seats faced enormous constituent anger.

Employer National Insurance

Employer NI contributions raised from 13.8% to 15%; the threshold lowered from £9,100 to £5,000. Business groups argued this was a tax on jobs. Polling found 48% opposed, 29% supported. Many small businesses and hospitality employers cited it as damaging.

Inheritance Tax on Farms

Family farm inheritance tax relief capped at £1 million, with agricultural property above that threshold subject to IHT. Farmers protests in London followed. Polling showed 52% opposed among rural voters. Labour denied most farms would be affected; farmers and the NFU disputed the figures.

Pledge-by-Pledge Polling: What Do Voters Think?

Policy Area	Approve (%)	Disapprove (%)	Don't Know (%)	Net
Employment Rights Act	48	28	24	+20
Clean Energy / GB Energy	55	22	23	+33
House building plans	41	35	24	+6
National Living Wage rise	62	18	20	+44
NHS investment plans	38	42	20	−4
Winter fuel payment cut	24	65	11	−41
Employer NI rise	29	52	19	−23
Farm inheritance tax change	31	48	21	−17
VAT on private schools	36	41	23	−5
Keir Starmer as PM	26	55	19	−29

Source: Aggregate of Redfield & Wilton, YouGov, Ipsos polling April–May 2026 (indicative).

Delivery Scorecard: Red / Amber / Green

Delivered (Green)

Employment Rights Act
GB Energy created
National Living Wage rise
Fire and rehire ban
Devolution White Paper
VAT on private schools
English Devolution Act

Partial / In Progress (Amber)

NHS waiting lists (rising, not falling)
1.5m homes (on track but slow start)
Clean energy 2030 (structural progress, timeline uncertain)
13,000 police (5,000 recruited so far)
Teacher recruitment (curriculum review ongoing)

Pledges Under Strain (Red)

Threshold freeze = stealth tax
Winter fuel cut contradicts no cuts pledge
Welfare reform backlash
Economic growth target missed in early years

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Labour break its pledge not to raise taxes?

Labour did not raise income tax, National Insurance (for employees), or VAT rates — the three specific taxes it pledged to protect. However, it raised employer National Insurance, extended income tax threshold freezes, and introduced VAT on private schools. Many voters regard this as breaking the spirit of the pledges even if the letter was technically kept.

Why has Labour polling collapsed so sharply?

Labour 2024 win was won on a low 33% vote share — it reflected voter desire to remove the Conservatives more than strong Labour enthusiasm. Once in government, the October 2024 Budget, winter fuel payment cuts, and welfare reform controversies eroded support rapidly. Reform UK benefited most, absorbing working-class disillusionment.

Is Keir Starmer in danger of losing the next election?

At current polling (Labour 18%, Reform 28%, Conservatives 19%), Labour faces an extremely difficult path at the 2029 General Election. However, Labour 412-seat majority provides significant cushion — it could lose 100+ seats and still govern. Elections are also fought in constituencies under FPTP, which can produce different outcomes than national polls suggest.