UK Voting Intention: All Party Polling Since 2019
Seven years of voting intention data. From Conservative dominance in 2019, through Labour’s landslide in 2024, to the Reform UK surge reshaping British politics in 2026.
Voting Intention Chart: 2019–2026
All major partiesMonthly poll-of-polls averages. Key political events annotated. Each party shown in its official colour.
Source: Poll-of-polls composite (YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, Techne, Redfield & Wilton). Monthly averages. GB-wide.
Key Events Timeline
Monthly Averages Table: 2019–2026
Selected monthly snapshots showing party trajectories. Full quarterly data below.
| Period | Labour | Con | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Greens | SNP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2019 GE | 32% | 45% | 2% | 12% | 3% | 4% | Con landslide |
| Jan 2020 | 35% | 43% | 2% | 12% | 3% | 4% | Starmer takes over |
| Apr 2020 | 32% | 53% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 4% | Covid rally effect |
| Jan 2021 | 38% | 43% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 4% | |
| Jul 2021 | 37% | 42% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 4% | Chesham LD win |
| Jan 2022 | 40% | 36% | 4% | 11% | 5% | 4% | Partygate emerges |
| Jul 2022 | 44% | 31% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 4% | Johnson resigns |
| Sep 2022 | 50% | 23% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 4% | Mini-Budget disaster |
| Jan 2023 | 46% | 26% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 4% | Sunak recovery |
| Jun 2023 | 44% | 28% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 4% | |
| Jan 2024 | 44% | 24% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 4% | Reform UK surge |
| Apr 2024 | 42% | 22% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 4% | Farage returns |
| Jul 2024 GE | 33% | 24% | 14% | 12% | 4% | 4% | Labour landslide |
| Oct 2024 | 30% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 4% | Budget backlash |
| Jan 2025 | 29% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 3% | |
| Apr 2025 | 28% | 23% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | Three-way race |
| Jan 2026 | 28% | 23% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | |
| May 2026 | 27% | 23% | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | Reform at 26% |
Poll-of-polls composite. Some months are approximate mid-month averages. GE rows show actual election results.
The Story in Four Phases
Phase 1: Conservative Dominance (2019–2021)
The 2019 general election gave the Conservatives their best result since 1987 at 45%. Covid-19 initially boosted this to 53% in April 2020. Labour under Starmer began a slow recovery but remained firmly in second place. Reform UK (then the Brexit Party) polled at 1–2%.
Phase 2: Conservative Collapse (2021–2023)
Partygate, the Chesham by-election loss, Boris Johnson’s resignation and Liz Truss’s catastrophic mini-Budget drove Conservative polling from 45% to 23% in three years. Labour peaked at 50% in September 2022 — a 27-point lead. Reform UK grew slowly to 5–6%.
Phase 3: Reform UK Surge (2023–2024)
From 2023, Reform UK began a sustained rise from 5% to 14% by the July 2024 general election. Nigel Farage returned as party leader in June 2024. Despite 14% of the vote, first-past-the-post delivered only 5 seats. Labour won the election on 33% — lower than many polls predicted.
Phase 4: Post-Election Realignment (2024–2026)
Since the 2024 general election, Reform UK has doubled from 14% to 26%. Labour has fallen from 33% to 27%. The Conservatives have flatlined at 23–24%. The Greens have risen from 4% to 8%. This is the most fragmented voting intention landscape in modern British polling history.
Frequently Asked Questions
When were Conservatives last above 40% in UK polls?
The Conservatives last polled above 40% consistently during the Covid pandemic rally in 2020, peaking at 53% in April 2020. After Partygate and the mini-Budget of 2022, they fell below 30% and have not recovered. They polled 24% at the July 2024 general election.
Has Reform UK ever led UK national polls?
Yes. In several individual polls during April and May 2026, Reform UK has polled level with or fractionally ahead of Labour. The poll-of-polls average shows them at 26% vs Labour 27% — effectively a dead heat at the top of UK national polling for the first time since the party was founded.
What was Labour’s highest poll rating since 2019?
Labour peaked at approximately 50–52% in individual polls in September 2022 following the Liz Truss mini-Budget disaster. Their poll-of-polls average peaked around 48% in late 2022. By the actual 2024 general election they had fallen to 33%, reflecting the “enthusiasm gap” in pro-Labour polls earlier in the parliament.
What was the biggest polling collapse in this data?
The most dramatic collapse was the Conservative fall after the Liz Truss mini-Budget of September 2022. The Conservatives fell from approximately 38% to 20% in six weeks — an 18-point collapse — giving Labour a 27-point lead, the largest opposition advantage in modern British polling history. Truss resigned after just 44 days. The crisis permanently ended the Conservative recovery that had begun under Sunak and set the stage for Labour’s 2024 landslide.
How unusual is the current multi-party polling fragmentation?
Historically, the Conservatives and Labour combined 80–90% of the GB vote. In 2026, their combined share is approximately 45–50% — the lowest in modern British polling. Reform UK, the Lib Dems, and the Greens together account for around half of all voting intention, creating the most fragmented landscape since the SDP-Liberal Alliance surge of 1983. Under First Past the Post, this fragmentation creates deeply unpredictable seat projections and increases the probability of a hung parliament in 2029.
What does the polling trajectory suggest about the 2029 general election?
Historical patterns suggest governing parties recover from mid-term lows, but the depth of Labour’s 2026 polling collapse is unusually severe for the two-year mark. The most likely 2029 scenarios from current data are: a Labour minority government if the party recovers to around 33%; a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 100–150 seats under current MRP projections; or a multi-party coalition involving two or more parties. A comfortable single-party majority looks unlikely from any current polling trajectory.
Explore Individual Party Trackers
Video: Further Analysis
Video: The historical context for the current polling landscape — how British party support has shifted from the 2024 election to the dramatic changes of 2025 and 2026.