UK Voting Intention 2019–2026
Monthly averages · All major partiesParty Vote Share: 2019 to May 2026
Key Inflection Points
Events that moved the polling lines2019
2020
2022
2022
2022
2024
2024
2026
Monthly Averages Data Table
Poll-of-polls average · 2019 to May 2026| Period | Labour | Con | Reform/Brexit | LD | Grn | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 39% | 37% | 3% | 10% | 3% | Pre-Brexit limbo |
| Apr 19 | 28% | 28% | 21% | 18% | 8% | Brexit Party peaks |
| Jul 19 | 25% | 28% | 19% | 15% | 6% | Boris leadership race |
| Oct 19 | 24% | 34% | 12% | 15% | 5% | Pre-GE campaign |
| Dec 19 | 33% | 44% | 2% | 12% | 3% | GE2019 result |
| Mar 20 | 41% | 51% | 1% | 7% | 4% | Covid lockdown begins |
| Jun 20 | 38% | 48% | 1% | 7% | 4% | Cummings scandal |
| Sep 20 | 37% | 46% | 1% | 7% | 5% | Second wave |
| Dec 20 | 37% | 41% | 1% | 8% | 5% | Vaccine rollout |
| Mar 21 | 36% | 44% | 2% | 7% | 5% | Vaccine bounce (Con) |
| Jun 21 | 35% | 43% | 3% | 8% | 5% | Delta wave |
| Sep 21 | 38% | 39% | 3% | 9% | 5% | Supply chain crisis |
| Dec 21 | 39% | 35% | 4% | 9% | 5% | Partygate breaks |
| Mar 22 | 41% | 34% | 5% | 10% | 6% | Partygate deepens |
| Jun 22 | 45% | 31% | 6% | 12% | 6% | Boris confidence vote |
| Sep 22 | 52% | 24% | 7% | 10% | 5% | Truss mini-budget |
| Dec 22 | 46% | 24% | 8% | 10% | 6% | Sunak stabilises |
| Mar 23 | 47% | 25% | 10% | 9% | 6% | Strikes continue |
| Jun 23 | 45% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 6% | Reform UK rising |
| Sep 23 | 43% | 25% | 12% | 11% | 7% | Sunak struggling |
| Dec 23 | 44% | 24% | 13% | 11% | 7% | Pre-election mood |
| Mar 24 | 43% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 7% | Election expected |
| Jun 24 | 44% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 8% | Pre-GE2024 |
| Jul 24 | 33% | 24% | 14% | 12% | 7% | GE2024 result |
| Sep 24 | 28% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 11% | Winter fuel cut |
| Dec 24 | 24% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 14% | Reform surging |
| Mar 25 | 21% | 20% | 24% | 13% | 15% | Reform near parity |
| Jun 25 | 20% | 20% | 26% | 13% | 15% | Reform leads |
| Sep 25 | 19% | 20% | 27% | 13% | 15% | Reform consolidates |
| Dec 25 | 18% | 19% | 27% | 13% | 15% | Stable at new level |
| Mar 26 | 18% | 19% | 28% | 13% | 15% | Reform holds lead |
| May 26 | 18% | 19% | 28% | 13% | 15% | Current snapshot |
Highlighted rows = general election results or major inflection points. All figures are monthly poll averages. Pre-2021 Reform UK column shows Brexit Party / UKIP figures.
Seven Years of UK Polling: Key Findings
The death of two-party dominance
In December 2019, Labour and Conservatives together accounted for 77% of voting intention. By May 2026 that figure has fallen to 37%. The combined share of Reform UK, Lib Dems, and Greens has risen from under 20% to over 55%. This is the most significant structural change to UK polling in the post-war period.
The Truss shock: permanent damage
The September 2022 mini-budget was not merely a temporary shock. The Conservative vote never recovered. From their pre-Truss level of 33-34%, they have not risen above 25% in any major poll since. The psychological association between the Conservative brand and economic incompetence appears to be durable.
Reform UK: from protest to contender
Reform UK's trajectory from 3% (as Brexit Party in 2019) to 28% (May 2026) is one of the most remarkable rises in modern UK polling history. The movement has survived leadership changes, controversies, and the transition from Brexit as its defining issue to immigration and populist anti-establishment sentiment. The GE2024 result of 14% and 5 seats proved it was not a polling artefact — it converted into real votes.
See also: current voting intention — poll of polls — leader approval tracker
Frequently Asked Questions
Which party has led UK polls the longest since 2019?
Labour has led UK polls for the longest continuous period since 2019. The party moved into a consistent lead in mid-2022 following the Johnson scandals and maintained it through GE2024. Since GE2024, Labour has collapsed from 33% to 18%, and Reform UK now leads polls.
What happened to UK polls during the Liz Truss era?
The September-October 2022 period was the most dramatic polling movement in recent UK history. The Conservatives fell from around 33% to 24% in weeks following the mini-budget. Labour surged above 50% in some individual polls. The Conservatives never recovered their pre-Truss standing.
When did Reform UK start rising in polls?
Reform UK's significant rise began from late 2023, when they started consistently registering above 10% in voting intention polls. Their trajectory accelerated through 2024, reaching 14% by GE2024. Since the election they have continued rising, reaching 28% by May 2026 to lead all parties.