Historical Election

2024 UK General Election Results

4 July 2024 — Labour won a historic landslide with 412 seats on 33.7% of the vote. Full results, analysis, and how the polls performed.

Keir Starmer Labour victory 2024 UK General Election landslide
Keir Starmer's Labour won a historic landslide with 412 seats on 4 July 2024 | BritPolls
412
Labour seats
121
Conservative seats
5
Reform UK seats
60%
turnout (approx.)

Full Results — 4 July 2024

Party Seats Vote % Seat bar (of 650)
Labour 412 33.7%
Conservatives 121 23.7%
Lib Dems 72 12.2%
Reform UK 5 14.3%
SNP 9 2.5%
Greens 4 6.7%
Plaid Cymru 4 0.7%
Other 23 6.2%

How the Polls Performed

The 2024 polls performed reasonably well in terms of final vote shares, though most underestimated the scale of the Conservative collapse and the Lib Dem surge. YouGov’s MRP was the standout performer: published two weeks before polling day, it projected Labour winning between 385 and 431 seats — the actual result (412) sat squarely in that range.

Party Final polls avg. Actual result Error
Labour 35% 33.7% -1.3pp
Conservatives 22% 23.7% +1.7pp
Reform UK 16% 14.3% -1.7pp
Lib Dems 11% 12.2% +1.2pp
Greens 7% 6.7% -0.3pp

Final poll average = average of last polls from YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, and Redfield & Wilton before election day.

Key findings — 2024 poll performance

  • Individual vote share errors were small (all within 2pp)
  • YouGov MRP seat projection was highly accurate (predicted 385–431 Labour seats)
  • Most polls slightly overestimated Reform UK and underestimated Conservatives
  • The Lib Dems outperformed polls in key seats due to strong tactical voting
  • Turnout (approx. 60%) was lower than most pollsters assumed

The FPTP Distortion

The 2024 result illustrates the dramatic distortions of First Past the Post. Reform UK won 14.3% of the vote — more than the Lib Dems (12.2%) — yet won only 5 seats compared to 72 for the Lib Dems. Under proportional representation, Reform would have won roughly 93 seats.

Party FPTP PR est.
Labour 412 219
Conservatives 121 154
Lib Dems 72 79
Reform UK 5 93
Greens 4 44
SNP 9 16

PR estimate based on proportional allocation of 650 seats to national vote share. Approximate only.

How did Labour win 412 seats on only 33.7% of the vote?

First Past the Post rewards geographically concentrated support. Labour’s vote was efficient — spread across just enough constituencies to win them. The vote-splitting between Conservatives and Reform UK handed Labour many seats. FPTP explained →

Why did Reform UK win only 5 seats on 14.3% of the vote?

Reform UK’s vote was spread too evenly across constituencies. They came second in many seats but won very few outright. Under FPTP you need concentrated, majority support in individual seats — not a broad national spread. Model what would happen under different vote shares →

How did the polls do in 2024?

Relatively well. Individual vote share errors were within 2pp. YouGov’s MRP projected 385–431 Labour seats; the actual result was 412. The main miss was Lib Dem over-performance in specific constituencies, driven by tactical voting that standard polls do not capture. MRP polling explained →

How did the Liberal Democrats win 72 seats on 12.2% of the vote?

Ed Davey ran a precision targeting campaign focused on Blue Wall Conservative-held seats in rural and suburban southern England. By concentrating campaign resources, selecting strong local candidates, and capitalising on NHS, local services and anti-Conservative sentiment in these seats, the Lib Dems converted 12.2% nationally into 72 seats — their best result since 1923. It is the most efficient vote-to-seat conversion of any party in the 2024 election. Lib Dems tracker →

What caused the Conservative collapse to 121 seats?

Multiple compounding factors: the Liz Truss 2022 mini-budget destroyed Conservative economic credibility; 14 years of government fatigue; NHS and cost-of-living failures; Reform UK taking 14% of the national vote primarily from former Conservative supporters; and Rishi Sunak’s personal unpopularity as a late-term leader with no route to recovery. At 121 seats, it was the Conservatives’ worst result since 1906 — worse than 1997. Conservative tracker →

Sources & Further Reading

Official 2024 General Election results are published by the Electoral Commission: 2024 General Election. See also our 2024 detailed results page and pollster accuracy at GE2024.

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Voting Intention Reform UK26% Labour20.8% Con19.4% Greens13% Lib Dems12.2% Starmer Approval Approve18% Disapprove61% VI Tracker Leader Approval GE2029 Forecast Reform UK Rise Latest Analysis