2024 UK General Election Results
4 July 2024 — Labour won a historic landslide with 412 seats on 33.7% of the vote. Full results, analysis, and how the polls performed.
Full Results — 4 July 2024
| Party | Seats | Vote % | Seat bar (of 650) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 412 | 33.7% | |
| Conservatives | 121 | 23.7% | |
| Lib Dems | 72 | 12.2% | |
| Reform UK | 5 | 14.3% | |
| SNP | 9 | 2.5% | |
| Greens | 4 | 6.7% | |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 0.7% | |
| Other | 23 | 6.2% |
How the Polls Performed
The 2024 polls performed reasonably well in terms of final vote shares, though most underestimated the scale of the Conservative collapse and the Lib Dem surge. YouGov’s MRP was the standout performer: published two weeks before polling day, it projected Labour winning between 385 and 431 seats — the actual result (412) sat squarely in that range.
| Party | Final polls avg. | Actual result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 35% | 33.7% | -1.3pp |
| Conservatives | 22% | 23.7% | +1.7pp |
| Reform UK | 16% | 14.3% | -1.7pp |
| Lib Dems | 11% | 12.2% | +1.2pp |
| Greens | 7% | 6.7% | -0.3pp |
Final poll average = average of last polls from YouGov, Ipsos, Survation, and Redfield & Wilton before election day.
Key findings — 2024 poll performance
- Individual vote share errors were small (all within 2pp)
- YouGov MRP seat projection was highly accurate (predicted 385–431 Labour seats)
- Most polls slightly overestimated Reform UK and underestimated Conservatives
- The Lib Dems outperformed polls in key seats due to strong tactical voting
- Turnout (approx. 60%) was lower than most pollsters assumed
The FPTP Distortion
The 2024 result illustrates the dramatic distortions of First Past the Post. Reform UK won 14.3% of the vote — more than the Lib Dems (12.2%) — yet won only 5 seats compared to 72 for the Lib Dems. Under proportional representation, Reform would have won roughly 93 seats.
| Party | FPTP | PR est. |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 412 | 219 |
| Conservatives | 121 | 154 |
| Lib Dems | 72 | 79 |
| Reform UK | 5 | 93 |
| Greens | 4 | 44 |
| SNP | 9 | 16 |
PR estimate based on proportional allocation of 650 seats to national vote share. Approximate only.
How did Labour win 412 seats on only 33.7% of the vote?
First Past the Post rewards geographically concentrated support. Labour’s vote was efficient — spread across just enough constituencies to win them. The vote-splitting between Conservatives and Reform UK handed Labour many seats. FPTP explained →
Why did Reform UK win only 5 seats on 14.3% of the vote?
Reform UK’s vote was spread too evenly across constituencies. They came second in many seats but won very few outright. Under FPTP you need concentrated, majority support in individual seats — not a broad national spread. Model what would happen under different vote shares →
How did the polls do in 2024?
Relatively well. Individual vote share errors were within 2pp. YouGov’s MRP projected 385–431 Labour seats; the actual result was 412. The main miss was Lib Dem over-performance in specific constituencies, driven by tactical voting that standard polls do not capture. MRP polling explained →