UK Opinion Polls July 2026: Reform at 25.8%, Labour Recovering to 21.8%

The July 2026 UK polling picture shows Reform UK still leading at 25.8% but with Labour recovering slightly to 21.8% — the first notable uptick for Labour in several months. The poll-of-polls tracker has Reform ahead by 4 points, down from a peak gap of around 8 points in early 2026.

What the July 2026 Polls Show

Reform UK at 25.8% remains comfortably the largest party in polling, but the July figures show a slight softening from the 27-28% peaks seen in April and May 2026. The party has maintained a strong floor above 25%, suggesting its support base has stabilised rather than continuing to grow indefinitely. Nigel Farage’s personal profile and Reform’s performance in the May 2026 local elections continue to drive its credibility as a governing alternative.

Labour’s recovery to 21.8% is modest but notable. The party won 34% at the July 2024 general election and fell to a low of around 18-19% in early 2026. The uptick may reflect some of the early economic data improving slightly and the fading of the most acute political controversies of 2025. However, at 21.8% Labour remains far below its 2024 result, and the full trend chart shows the recovery is tentative.

The Conservatives at 19% continue to hold above their disastrous 24% general election result. Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has stabilised the party’s vote but not yet produced a breakthrough. The Greens at 12.6% and Lib Dems at 12% are broadly steady. The demographic breakdown shows the Greens still outperforming significantly among under-35s.

Leader Approval in July 2026

Keir Starmer’s net approval at -40% in July 2026 represents a marginal improvement from the -44% to -46% range seen in the first half of 2026. For context, 21% of voters approve of his performance as Prime Minister while 61% disapprove. The full Starmer approval analysis tracks his month-by-month trajectory since July 2024.

Kemi Badenoch at -7% net approval is the most popular major party leader — a striking reversal given that she leads a party that just suffered its worst-ever election defeat. Her personal brand has consolidated among remaining Conservative voters and she has avoided major gaffes in her first eight months as leader. Nigel Farage at -21% is deeply polarising: very popular with Reform’s own voters and very unpopular with everyone else.

Key Pollsters Publishing in July 2026

The major BPC-member pollsters active in July 2026 contributing to the poll-of-polls:

• YouGov — weekly voting intention tracker, largest ongoing UK polling series.
• Redfield & Wilton — daily tracking and weekly omnibus, tends toward higher Reform numbers.
• More in Common — regular fieldwork with strong demographic cross-tabs.
• Ipsos — monthly tracker with face-to-face methodology, tends toward higher Labour numbers.
• Survation — monthly phone and online combined methodology.

Seat Projections Under Current Polling

Under First Past the Post, the July 2026 polling would still produce a hung parliament, though with Labour’s modest recovery the seat projections are slightly less severe than three months ago. MRP modelling suggests Reform UK on 60–100 seats, Labour on 240–280, Conservatives 110–145. The Lib Dems could hold around 60–70 seats in their Blue Wall strongholds. The constituencies analysis gives a full seat-by-seat breakdown.

The key uncertainty for the 2029 election is whether Labour’s recovery continues or stalls. Economic data due in autumn 2026 — particularly NHS waiting times, real wage growth, and housing completions — will be critical signals. If the economic picture improves and Starmer’s approval recovers to -25% or better by mid-2028, Labour could be competitive. If it stays near -40%, the 2029 election looks very difficult for the governing party.

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