The May 2026 YouGov tracker has delivered the most dramatic headline number in British polling for a generation: Reform UK on 28%, ahead of the Conservatives on 19% and Labour on 18%. This is the first time a new party has led UK national voting intention since the SDP polled above both established parties in early 1982.
YouGov VI — 5–7 May 2026
Fieldwork, Sample and Methodology
YouGov ran this wave across 5, 6, and 7 May 2026, interviewing 1,954 GB adults via their online panel. The sample was weighted to match the GB adult population on age, gender, education level, region, and recalled 2024 general election vote. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is approximately ±2.2 percentage points. YouGov applies a likely-voter filter, excluding those who score 4 or below out of 10 on their stated intention to vote.
One methodological note worth flagging: the YouGov panel over-represents politically engaged respondents by design, which historically produces slightly lower Labour figures and slightly higher third-party figures than telephone probability samples. Survation and Ipsos, which both use telephone fieldwork alongside online interviews, show marginally different results — but the trend direction is consistent across all major pollsters. The Reform lead is not a YouGov artefact.
YouGov publishes full cross-tabulation data alongside each tracker. The raw (unweighted, unfiltered) figures show Reform at 31% and Labour at 16%, suggesting the weighting process closes the gap somewhat. The weighted, likely-voter figures remain the headline numbers reported by media outlets and tracked in the voting intention series.
What Changed Since April 2026
April's YouGov tracker had Reform on 25%, Labour on 20%, Conservatives on 19%, Greens on 14%, and Lib Dems on 13%. The May wave shows a sharp three-point Reform gain and a two-point Labour fall — the largest single-month movement in the series since the 2024 general election. The trigger was a combination of the local election results from 1 May 2026 (where Reform gained over 1,000 council seats) and renewed coverage of immigration enforcement failures.
The Conservative number remaining flat at 19% despite the Reform surge is notable. It suggests the two right-of-centre parties are drawing from different voter pools at this stage: Reform is growing its vote among former Labour non-graduates, not cannibalising the Conservative base. The Greens' one-point gain, to 15%, also reflects a structural shift — progressive voters who feel Labour has abandoned economic redistribution are consolidating around the Greens rather than returning to Labour.
Among Scottish respondents, the SNP holds at 3% of GB-wide share (equivalent to roughly 31% of Scottish VI). That is discussed in detail in our analysis of SNP polling trends.
Sub-Group Breakdowns: Who Backs Whom
The demographic cross-tabs in the May 2026 YouGov poll illustrate the profound class and educational realignment underway in British politics. Among voters without a university degree, Reform leads on 38%, with Labour on 16% and the Conservatives on 20%. Among degree-holders, the Greens lead on 24%, Labour on 22%, and Reform on just 13%. This is the starkest educational split in YouGov's history of tracking, and it closely mirrors patterns emerging in France and Germany.
By age: Reform leads all age groups over 45. In the 55–64 cohort, Reform is on 36% compared to Labour's 14%. Among under-30s, Labour leads on 29%, the Greens on 27%, and Reform on just 9%. This generational split means Labour is consolidating in demographics concentrated in safe urban seats, while losing ground in the suburban and semi-rural constituencies it must hold to keep its 2024 majority.
By region: Reform leads in the East Midlands (34%), Yorkshire (31%), and the East of England (32%). Labour leads only in London (33%). For full regional polling data, see the tracker page.
What This Means for 2029
Translating these figures into seats via uniform national swing would produce a hung parliament with Reform as the largest party by vote share but not seats — a deeply counter-intuitive outcome that reflects the distorting effect of first-past-the-post on geographically dispersed support. Reform's vote is spread across every English constituency; it lacks the concentrated geographic base that delivered Labour 411 seats on just 34% of the vote in 2024.
MRP models — which account for local geographic variation — currently project Reform winning between 60 and 120 seats on these numbers, a huge improvement on their five seats in 2024 but far short of a majority. Labour would likely retain 200–250 seats, and the Conservatives — squeezed from both sides — could fall below 100 for the first time since 1906. Full MRP analysis is here.
Three years remain before the next scheduled general election in May 2029. Historical precedent suggests governing party polls tend to improve as elections approach, as voters focus on competence rather than protest. Whether Labour can stage a recovery of 15–20 points — and whether Reform can maintain support at this level through three more years of parliamentary scrutiny — will be the defining questions of the current political cycle. Follow all updates on the voting intention tracker.