What were the Conservatives polling at their peak?

The Conservatives peaked at 43.6% at the December 2019 General Election under Boris Johnson, winning 365 seats — their largest majority since Margaret Thatcher in 1987.

Why did Conservative polling collapse?

Conservative polling collapsed due to multiple crises: Partygate (2021-22), the disastrous Liz Truss mini-budget in September 2022 which crashed markets, Rishi Sunak failure to rebuild trust, and the July 2024 General Election defeat which cut them from 365 to 121 seats.

What did the Conservatives win in the 2024 General Election?

The Conservatives won 24% of the vote and 121 seats in the July 2024 General Election — their worst result since 1906. They lost over 240 seats from their 2019 position of 365.

Who leads the Conservatives in 2026?

Kemi Badenoch has led the Conservative Party since November 2024, elected in a leadership contest following Rishi Sunak resignation after the 2024 General Election defeat.

What is the Conservative Party polling at in 2026?

The Conservatives are polling at approximately 19% in May 2026, slightly above Labour (18%) but well below Reform UK (28%).

What would it take for the Conservatives to recover to government?

From 19% in May 2026, the Conservatives need approximately 38-40% to win a majority under First Past the Post. This requires Reform UK falling back substantially from 28%, Liberal Democrat retreat from Blue Wall seats, and Labour remaining weak. Most analysts consider a Conservative government in 2029 unlikely; the realistic outcome is consolidation as the official opposition. A path back to majority government would need at least two full parliamentary rebuilding cycles, winning back Blue Wall voters from the Liberal Democrats and Red Wall voters from Reform UK simultaneously.

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Conservative Polling History 2019–2026

From 43.6% majority to 19% — the full story of the collapse

43.6%

2019 GE Peak

24%

2024 GE Result

19%

May 2026 Polling

121

Current seats (from 365)

The Decline: Polling Chart 2019–2026

▼ From 43% to 19% in 7 years

Date	Con VI	Lab VI	Con Lead	Key Event
Dec 2019 (GE)	43.6%	32.1%	+11.5pts	Landslide majority; 365 seats; Johnson Get Brexit Done campaign
Mar 2020	51%	37%	+14pts	COVID pandemic; rally-round-the-flag pushes Con to record polls
Jul 2021	43%	37%	+6pts	Vaccine rollout success; still comfortably ahead
Nov 2021	39%	38%	+1pt	Partygate revelations begin; Owen Paterson affair; sleaze allegations
Jan 2022	33%	43%	−10pts	Partygate peak — Boris Johnson police fined; parties held during lockdown
Jul 2022	34%	40%	−6pts	Boris Johnson resigns; Partygate, Chris Pincher appointment scandal
Sep 2022 (mini-budget)	21%	52%	−31pts	Liz Truss mini-budget crashes pound and gilts; historic polling collapse
Oct 2022	26%	45%	−19pts	Liz Truss resigns after 45 days; Rishi Sunak becomes PM
May 2024	24%	44%	−20pts	General election called; Tories 20+ points behind throughout campaign
Jul 2024 (GE)	24%	33%	−9pts	Historic defeat; 121 seats, worst since 1906; Labour wins with 412 seats
Nov 2024	22%	27%	−5pts	Kemi Badenoch elected leader; Reform UK already at 22%
May 2026	19%	18%	—	Squeezed by Reform UK (28%); narrowly ahead of Labour; existential pressure

The Key Inflection Points

Partygate (Nov 2021 – Jun 2022)

Revelations that Downing Street staff held parties during COVID lockdowns — when the public were banned from seeing family — devastated Conservative polling. From 42% in October 2021, the Conservatives fell to 33% by January 2022. Boris Johnson was the first sitting Prime Minister fined by police for breaking the law.

Liz Truss Mini-Budget (Sep 2022)

The most catastrophic single polling moment in modern UK political history. On 23 September 2022, an unfunded £45 billion tax cutting budget crashed the pound and gilt yields. Conservative polling collapsed from ~34% to 21% in weeks — a 13-point fall in under a month. Liz Truss resigned after 45 days, the shortest Prime Ministership in British history.

Sunak Failure to Recover (2022–2024)

Rishi Sunak restored market stability but was never able to close the polling gap with Labour. Conservative polling recovered from 21% to 24–27% during 2023 but stalled. Key failures: inflation peaked at 11%, NHS waiting lists reached 7 million, and the Rwanda deportation plan became a prolonged embarrassment.

2024 GE Defeat: 121 Seats

The July 2024 result — 24% and 121 seats — was the Conservatives worst General Election defeat since 1906. They lost over 240 seats. Cabinet ministers including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and Gillian Keegan lost their seats. The vote was split between Labour, Lib Dems, and Reform UK.

Conservative Leaders 2019–2026

Leader	Period	Peak Con VI	Trough Con VI	Key Event
Boris Johnson	Jul 2019–Sep 2022	51% (Mar 2020)	33% (Jan 2022)	2019 landslide; COVID; Partygate; forced out by MPs
Liz Truss	Sep–Oct 2022 (45 days)	26%	21%	Mini-budget; market chaos; shortest PM in history
Rishi Sunak	Oct 2022–Jul 2024	30%	24% (GE result)	Market stability restored; never closed polling gap; 2024 defeat
Kemi Badenoch	Nov 2024–present	23%	19% (May 2026)	Repositioning right; squeezed by Reform UK; rebuilding phase

Kemi Badenoch: Rebuilding from 19%

Strategic Position

Kemi Badenoch won the leadership in November 2024 in a contest against Robert Jenrick, positioning herself as a more assertive conservative voice on culture, immigration, and economic reform. She has spoken of the need to rebuild the party from the foundations and rejected quick-fix electoral positioning.

The Reform UK Problem

With Reform at 28% and the Conservatives at 19%, a right-of-centre vote split makes a Conservative majority at 2029 mathematically very difficult. The Conservatives would need approximately 38% to win a majority under FPTP. Badenoch has refused to contemplate an electoral arrangement with Reform UK.

Where Did Conservative Voters Go?

Destination	2019 Con Voters Who Switched	Issue Driver
Reform UK	~20%	Immigration, anti-establishment, Partygate disgust
Liberal Democrats	~15%	Southern England professionals; pro-Remain; Partygate
Labour	~10%	Tactical voting to remove Conservatives; NHS concern
Did not vote / other	~5%	Disillusionment; no acceptable alternative

The Conservative voter coalition of 2019 was inherently unstable: it combined Red Wall working-class Brexit voters (primarily Labour before 2019), Southern England Remain-leaning professionals, and traditional rural Conservatives. These groups have divergent interests and in 2024 voted for very different alternatives.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can the Conservatives win the 2029 General Election from 19%?

It is very difficult but not impossible. The Conservatives need roughly 38–40% to win a majority under First Past the Post — requiring a near-doubling of their current support. This needs a simultaneous Reform UK collapse, Liberal Democrat retreat from blue wall seats, and Labour failing to recover. Most MRP projections show the Conservatives consolidating as the main opposition rather than returning to government in 2029.

What was the Conservative Party’s worst polling ever?

The worst sustained polling period was September–October 2022 following the Liz Truss mini-budget, when the Conservatives reached 20–21% in some polls. At the same point, Labour led by up to 31 percentage points — the largest poll lead since the Blair era. The party stabilised under Rishi Sunak but never recovered above 26% before the 2024 General Election, at which they won 23.7%.

Why did the 2019 Conservative majority not protect them?

The 2019 majority was won with 43.6% of the vote — but much of it was borrowed from traditional Labour voters who switched specifically to “Get Brexit Done.” Once Brexit was delivered and Boris Johnson’s character became the dominant issue through Partygate, those borrowed voters returned to Labour. Others moved to Reform UK on immigration, and Lib Dem-leaning voters in the south moved back to the Lib Dems. The 2019 coalition was held together by a single issue that had expired by 2023.

How catastrophic was the Liz Truss mini-budget in polling terms?

The September 2022 Liz Truss mini-budget produced the sharpest single polling collapse in modern UK political history. From approximately 34% before the September 23 budget statement, Conservative polling fell to 21% within three weeks. The £45 billion unfunded tax cut package crashed the pound to near-parity with the dollar and sent gilt yields soaring, forcing the Bank of England to intervene. At the trough, Labour led by 31 percentage points — the largest lead in any modern YouGov poll. Truss resigned after 45 days in office.

What is Kemi Badenoch’s strategy for recovering the Conservative vote?

Kemi Badenoch’s strategy combines: cultural conservatism on immigration and identity to hold voters at risk of moving to Reform UK; economic credibility through fiscal discipline to differentiate from Reform; and a long rebuilding process she has explicitly said will take more than one parliament. She has rejected quick-fix repositioning, refused an electoral pact with Reform UK, and focused on opposing the Labour government on welfare, growth, and public sector reform. Her net approval of −15 is significantly better than her predecessor Sunak’s ratings in his final months.

Where did the 2024 Conservative votes go compared to 2019?

The Conservative vote fell from 43.6% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2024 — a loss of approximately 20 percentage points. Analysis of voting patterns shows: around 20% of 2019 Conservative voters switched to Reform UK on immigration and anti-establishment grounds; around 15% switched to the Liberal Democrats in Blue Wall seats over NHS and local services; around 10% voted tactically for Labour to remove the Conservatives; and roughly 5% did not vote. No single factor explains the collapse — it was the culmination of Partygate, Truss, and accumulated governance failures across 14 years in power.

Video: Further Analysis

Video: The Conservative Party's journey from 2019 landslide to 2024 historic defeat — understanding the collapse that left them with just 121 seats.