Conservative Polling History 2019–2026
The Decline: Polling Chart 2019–2026
▼ From 43% to 19% in 7 years| Date | Con VI | Lab VI | Con Lead | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2019 (GE) | 43.6% | 32.1% | +11.5pts | Landslide majority; 365 seats; Johnson Get Brexit Done campaign |
| Mar 2020 | 51% | 37% | +14pts | COVID pandemic; rally-round-the-flag pushes Con to record polls |
| Jul 2021 | 43% | 37% | +6pts | Vaccine rollout success; still comfortably ahead |
| Nov 2021 | 39% | 38% | +1pt | Partygate revelations begin; Owen Paterson affair; sleaze allegations |
| Jan 2022 | 33% | 43% | −10pts | Partygate peak — Boris Johnson police fined; parties held during lockdown |
| Jul 2022 | 34% | 40% | −6pts | Boris Johnson resigns; Partygate, Chris Pincher appointment scandal |
| Sep 2022 (mini-budget) | 21% | 52% | −31pts | Liz Truss mini-budget crashes pound and gilts; historic polling collapse |
| Oct 2022 | 26% | 45% | −19pts | Liz Truss resigns after 45 days; Rishi Sunak becomes PM |
| May 2024 | 24% | 44% | −20pts | General election called; Tories 20+ points behind throughout campaign |
| Jul 2024 (GE) | 24% | 33% | −9pts | Historic defeat; 121 seats, worst since 1906; Labour wins with 412 seats |
| Nov 2024 | 22% | 27% | −5pts | Kemi Badenoch elected leader; Reform UK already at 22% |
| May 2026 | 19% | 18% | — | Squeezed by Reform UK (28%); narrowly ahead of Labour; existential pressure |
The Key Inflection Points
Partygate (Nov 2021 – Jun 2022)
Revelations that Downing Street staff held parties during COVID lockdowns — when the public were banned from seeing family — devastated Conservative polling. From 42% in October 2021, the Conservatives fell to 33% by January 2022. Boris Johnson was the first sitting Prime Minister fined by police for breaking the law.
Liz Truss Mini-Budget (Sep 2022)
The most catastrophic single polling moment in modern UK political history. On 23 September 2022, an unfunded £45 billion tax cutting budget crashed the pound and gilt yields. Conservative polling collapsed from ~34% to 21% in weeks — a 13-point fall in under a month. Liz Truss resigned after 45 days, the shortest Prime Ministership in British history.
Sunak Failure to Recover (2022–2024)
Rishi Sunak restored market stability but was never able to close the polling gap with Labour. Conservative polling recovered from 21% to 24–27% during 2023 but stalled. Key failures: inflation peaked at 11%, NHS waiting lists reached 7 million, and the Rwanda deportation plan became a prolonged embarrassment.
2024 GE Defeat: 121 Seats
The July 2024 result — 24% and 121 seats — was the Conservatives worst General Election defeat since 1906. They lost over 240 seats. Cabinet ministers including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and Gillian Keegan lost their seats. The vote was split between Labour, Lib Dems, and Reform UK.
Conservative Leaders 2019–2026
| Leader | Period | Peak Con VI | Trough Con VI | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boris Johnson | Jul 2019–Sep 2022 | 51% (Mar 2020) | 33% (Jan 2022) | 2019 landslide; COVID; Partygate; forced out by MPs |
| Liz Truss | Sep–Oct 2022 (45 days) | 26% | 21% | Mini-budget; market chaos; shortest PM in history |
| Rishi Sunak | Oct 2022–Jul 2024 | 30% | 24% (GE result) | Market stability restored; never closed polling gap; 2024 defeat |
| Kemi Badenoch | Nov 2024–present | 23% | 19% (May 2026) | Repositioning right; squeezed by Reform UK; rebuilding phase |
Kemi Badenoch: Rebuilding from 19%
Strategic Position
Kemi Badenoch won the leadership in November 2024 in a contest against Robert Jenrick, positioning herself as a more assertive conservative voice on culture, immigration, and economic reform. She has spoken of the need to rebuild the party from the foundations and rejected quick-fix electoral positioning.
The Reform UK Problem
With Reform at 28% and the Conservatives at 19%, a right-of-centre vote split makes a Conservative majority at 2029 mathematically very difficult. The Conservatives would need approximately 38% to win a majority under FPTP. Badenoch has refused to contemplate an electoral arrangement with Reform UK.
Where Did Conservative Voters Go?
| Destination | 2019 Con Voters Who Switched | Issue Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | ~20% | Immigration, anti-establishment, Partygate disgust |
| Liberal Democrats | ~15% | Southern England professionals; pro-Remain; Partygate |
| Labour | ~10% | Tactical voting to remove Conservatives; NHS concern |
| Did not vote / other | ~5% | Disillusionment; no acceptable alternative |
The Conservative voter coalition of 2019 was inherently unstable: it combined Red Wall working-class Brexit voters (primarily Labour before 2019), Southern England Remain-leaning professionals, and traditional rural Conservatives. These groups have divergent interests and in 2024 voted for very different alternatives.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Conservatives win the 2029 General Election from 19%?
It is very difficult but not impossible. The Conservatives sit on 412 Labour seats to target and Reform UK could collapse as it has historically. Without a major Reform UK collapse or a right-wing pact, the arithmetic is very challenging.
What was the Conservative Party worst polling ever?
The worst single poll reading was around 20–21% in September–October 2022 following the Liz Truss mini-budget. At the same point, Labour led by up to 31 percentage points.
Why did the 2019 Conservative majority not protect them?
The 2019 majority was won with 43.6% of the vote — but much of it was borrowed from traditional Labour voters who switched specifically to Get Brexit Done. Once Brexit was delivered and Johnson character became the dominant issue through Partygate, those borrowed voters returned to Labour, while others went to Reform UK and the Lib Dems.
Related Pages
Conservative Party
Current Conservative polling, Kemi Badenoch approval, and the path from 121 seats back to government.
Reform UK History
How Reform UK rose as the Conservatives collapsed — absorbing the right-wing vote the Tories could not hold.
UK Voting Intention
Current GB-wide poll of polls: Reform 28%, Con 19%, Lab 18%.