Reform UK: Full Polling History
Reform UK Polling History: Full Chart 2019–2026
Complete Polling Timeline
| Date / Event | Poll % | Key Context |
|---|---|---|
| January 2019 — Brexit Party founded | 5% | Nigel Farage launches Brexit Party; Theresa May struggling with Withdrawal Agreement |
| May 2019 — European Parliament elections | 30.5% | Brexit Party wins EU elections with 29 MEPs; largest UK party in European Parliament; Remain vs Leave battle dominates |
| October 2019 — Boris Johnson deal | ~15% | Johnson secures new Withdrawal Agreement; Brexit Party support halves as Brexit seems resolved |
| December 2019 — General Election | 2.0% | Farage stands down candidates in Conservative seats to avoid splitting the Brexit vote; 0 MPs elected; 644,257 votes |
| January 2021 — Reform UK rebrand | 1% | Brexit Party becomes Reform UK; Richard Tice becomes chairman; focus shifts to opposing lockdown restrictions |
| 2021–2022 — Anti-lockdown phase | 1–3% | Reform UK campaigns against COVID vaccine passports, mandates, and lockdown policy; small but vocal base |
| 2023 — Cost of living surge begins | 4–7% | Reform UK benefits from Conservative unpopularity under Sunak; Tice builds party infrastructure; immigration becomes dominant issue |
| January 2024 | 9% | Reform UK hits highest polling under Tice; Lee Anderson defects from Conservatives in February 2024 |
| June 2024 — Farage returns | 13% | Nigel Farage announces return as Reform UK leader during General Election campaign; Richard Tice steps aside; immediate polling spike |
| 4 July 2024 — General Election | 14.3% | Reform UK wins 4.1 million votes; 5 MPs elected: Farage (Clacton), Tice, Anderson, Clark, Habib; 98 second-place finishes |
| September 2024 | 18% | Post-election surge begins; Labour winter fuel cut, immigration figures fuel Reform rise; Lee Anderson suspended then resigns Tory whip permanently |
| January 2025 | 22% | Reform UK leads some polls for first time; Farage positions party as official opposition; Labour collapses to 23-25% |
| May 2025 — Local Elections | ~28% (local) | Reform UK wins hundreds of council seats; gains control of several councils; demonstrating local government capacity |
| September 2025 | 26% | Sustained national polling; Reform UK grows parliamentary party through further defections; GB News and social media dominance |
| May 2026 | 28% | Joint leading party alongside Labour; largest single-party polling bloc in some surveys; 2029 election increasingly central to political debate |
Brexit Party vs Reform UK: Two Phases
Phase 1: Brexit Party (2019–2021)
The Brexit Party was a single-issue vehicle built entirely around achieving Brexit. Founded in January 2019 and registered as a company rather than a traditional political party, it had no formal membership in the conventional sense — supporters registered as backers for £25. The party won the May 2019 European Parliament elections with 30.5% and 29 MEPs, but this was its ceiling. When Farage stood down candidates in Conservative-held seats in the December 2019 General Election to prevent splitting the Brexit vote, the party won just 2% and zero seats. With Brexit formally completed in January 2020 and the party stripped of its MEPs after the UK left the EU, it had no purpose.
Phase 2: Reform UK (2021–present)
Reform UK was created as a broader right-wing populist party under Richard Tice, addressing immigration, NHS reform, net zero scepticism, and opposition to what it calls the political establishment. Growth was slow until 2023, when Conservative unpopularity combined with high immigration figures began pushing voters toward Reform. The party reached 9% under Tice before Farage returned in June 2024 and transformed it into a serious electoral force. The 2024 General Election result — 14.3% and 5 MPs — established Reform as the third largest party by vote share, though the FPTP system heavily penalised it. Post-election polling surge to 28% by 2026 makes it a genuine 2029 contender.
The FPTP Penalty: Votes vs Seats
| Party | 2024 GE Vote % | Seats Won | Votes Per Seat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 33.7% | 411 | ~23,500 |
| Conservative | 23.7% | 121 | ~38,000 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12.2% | 72 | ~35,000 |
| Reform UK | 14.3% | 5 | ~820,000 |
| SNP | 2.5% | 9 | ~58,000 |
| Greens | 6.7% | 4 | ~700,000 |
Reform UK required approximately 820,000 votes per seat won — 35x the votes-per-seat of Labour. This reflects that Reform vote is spread broadly across constituencies rather than concentrated in winnable clusters. At 28% polling with geographic consolidation, this calculus changes significantly for 2029.
Nigel Farage: The Constant Factor
| Period | Farage Role | Party Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 1993–2006 | UKIP MEP and key figure | UKIP grows from fringe to significant player; wins 2004 EU elections |
| 2006–2009 | UKIP leader (first term) | UKIP reaches 13% in 2009 EU elections |
| 2010–2016 | UKIP leader (second term) | UKIP peaks at 12.6% in 2015 GE with 3.88m votes; 1 MP; forces EU referendum |
| 2016–2019 | Resigned UKIP; freelance campaigner | UKIP collapses; Farage joins Brexit Party as founder |
| Jan–Dec 2019 | Brexit Party leader | 30.5% EU elections; 2% December GE (strategic withdrawal) |
| 2020–2024 (pre-June) | Absent from frontline politics; GB News presenter | Reform UK at 1–9% under Tice |
| June 2024–present | Reform UK leader and MP for Clacton | 14.3% GE; post-election surge to 28% |
Richard Tice Era: Building the Infrastructure (2021–2024)
What Tice Built
Richard Tice, who had been chairman of the Brexit Party and an MEP, took on the leadership of Reform UK and spent three years building party infrastructure that Farage could later exploit. Tice established regional organising structures, a professional fundraising operation, and a policy platform that went beyond Brexit to cover NHS privatisation opposition, net zero scepticism, and controlled immigration. By early 2024, Reform had reached 9% — its highest polling under Tice — and was attracting Conservative defectors including Lee Anderson.
The Tice Ceiling
Despite his organisational work, Tice could not break through to a higher level of public recognition. Reform under Tice was seen as a party of protest rather than potential government. When Farage announced his return in June 2024, the polling immediately reflected the difference a high-profile, media-capable leader makes: Reform jumped from 9% to 13% within weeks. Tice graciously stepped aside and remained as a Reform MP after winning Clacton on Tice. The party Farage inherited was substantially more professional than the one he left in 2020.
The 2024 General Election: Breakthrough and Frustration
Reform UK 2024 GE Results
Vote share: 14.3%
Total votes: 4,117,221
MPs elected: 5
Second places: 98
Third places: 180+
Average vote per seat: ~820,000
The Five MPs
Nigel Farage (Clacton), Richard Tice (Boston & Skegness), Lee Anderson (Ashfield), Rupert Lowe (Great Yarmouth), James McMurdock (South Basildon & East Thurrock). All five were in coastal or post-industrial English constituencies with high working-class Leave-voting populations.
Near Misses
Reform UK came second in 98 constituencies in 2024. Many of these were Conservative-held seats where a split right-wing vote handed the seat to Labour or Liberal Democrats. This fragmentation is both Reform UK problem and its opportunity: consolidating the right-wing vote in second-place seats is the 2029 strategy.
Post-Election Surge: Why Reform Rose to 28%
| Factor | Reform Gain |
|---|---|
| Labour winter fuel payment cut (Sep 2024) | Significant; Reform campaigns heavily among pensioners; polling spikes among 65+ |
| Immigration figures (net 728,000 in 2024) | Reform core issue; each set of immigration statistics generates sustained media coverage and polling gains |
| Conservative collapse and voter migration | Reform absorbs majority of ex-Conservative voters who will not return to a Badenoch-led opposition |
| Farage social media dominance | Reform leader has largest combined social media following of any UK politician; direct-to-audience communication bypasses traditional media |
| NHS waiting list crisis | Reform adopts NHS insurance proposals; traction among voters frustrated by 7m+ waiting list |
| 2025 local election gains | Reform wins hundreds of council seats; demonstrating it can govern at local level; reduces "wasted vote" concern |
| Net zero scepticism | Energy prices and heat pump mandates give Reform a mobilising retail issue beyond immigration |
Reform UK Core Policy Platform (2026)
Immigration
Reform UK signature issue. The party calls for net immigration reduced to zero, withdrawal from the ECHR, offshore processing of asylum seekers, and fast-track deportation. Immigration polling figures consistently move Reform support upward.
NHS Reform
Proposes a co-payment or insurance model for NHS services. Argues the current model is unsustainable with 7 million on waiting lists. This is Reform most controversial domestic policy and generates the strongest negative response from focus groups.
Net Zero
Opposes the 2050 net zero target, the ban on new petrol and diesel cars, mandatory heat pumps, and current energy policy. Frames energy costs as a cost-of-living issue hitting working-class households hardest.
Tax and Economy
Proposes raising the income tax threshold to £20,000 (taking millions of low earners out of tax), abolishing inheritance tax, and cutting corporation tax. Funded through savings on overseas aid and net zero spending.
GB News and Media
Reform UK benefits from extensive GB News coverage, where Farage had a prime-time show before returning to frontline politics. The party has built a substantial digital and social media infrastructure, reaching voters outside mainstream broadcast media.
Anti-Establishment
Reform explicitly positions itself against both Labour and Conservative as a system that has failed working people. It frames its 2029 campaign as a choice between the political establishment and change — echoing the 2016 Brexit Leave campaign rhetoric.
Can Reform UK Win in 2029?
| Scenario | Reform UK % | Estimated Seats | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current trajectory maintained | 28% | 80–130 | Large opposition; possible kingmaker if hung parliament |
| Moderate further growth | 32% | 150–220 | Largest opposition party; potential coalition partner |
| Breakthrough scenario | 36%+ | 280–350 | Potential majority; unprecedented for new party |
| Plateau or decline | 20–22% | 30–60 | Significant party; FPTP still heavily penalises spread vote |
Reform Advantages for 2029
Strong polling momentum; geographic consolidation improving from 2024 base; 98 second-place seats to target; weak Conservative opposition; Farage name recognition and media capability; local government wins building credibility; direct digital communication bypassing hostile broadcast media.
Reform Challenges for 2029
FPTP system structurally hostile to spread vote share; NHS and public services credibility gap; candidate quality concerns at scale; risk of vote fragmentation if Conservatives recover; Farage personality-dependency risk; negative campaigning from Labour and Conservative targeting key marginals.
Frequently Asked Questions
When was Reform UK founded?
Reform UK was founded in January 2021 as a rebrand of the Brexit Party, which itself was founded in January 2019. The Brexit Party was created specifically to contest the 2019 European Parliament elections and achieved 30.5% in those elections before collapsing to 2% in the December 2019 General Election.
What did Reform UK poll in the 2024 General Election?
Reform UK won 14.3% of the vote in the 2024 General Election, translating to just 5 seats due to the first-past-the-post system. It received over 4 million votes, the third highest vote total of any party. The party came second in 98 constituencies.
What is Reform UK polling at in 2026?
Reform UK polls at approximately 28% in national surveys in 2026, making it joint-leading party alongside Labour in many polls. It has led some polls outright since early 2025, driven by Labour unpopularity and sustained high immigration figures.
Why did Nigel Farage return to Reform UK?
Nigel Farage announced his return to Reform UK in June 2024 during the General Election campaign, replacing Richard Tice as leader. He cited the scale of the political opportunity and stood for Parliament in Clacton, winning the seat. His return immediately boosted Reform polling by 3-4 percentage points.
Can Reform UK win the 2029 General Election?
At 28% polling Reform UK would be competitive but faces a severe FPTP penalty. Uniform swing modelling suggests Reform needs roughly 35% to win a majority. The party must demonstrate local government credibility, sustain national polling, and consolidate its vote geographically in its 98 second-place constituencies to be a genuine 2029 contender.
Related Pages
Reform UK Overview
Current polling, policies, leadership, and 2024 General Election results in detail.
Conservative Polling History
The Conservative collapse from 43.6% in 2019 to 19% in 2026 — full timeline and analysis.
UKIP History
How UKIP pioneered the populist right-wing breakthrough that Reform UK now dominates.