61% Back Net Zero — But Reform Voters Strongly Oppose

Britain’s climate politics in 2026 present a study in partisan polarisation. At the headline level, 61% of UK voters support the net zero 2050 target — a healthy majority and broadly consistent with polling from recent years. But beneath that aggregate lies a partisan split as stark as any in British public opinion: Reform UK voters oppose net zero by nearly two-to-one, the Greens have built their surge almost entirely on climate salience, and the gap between the two ends of the political spectrum on environmental policy is now wider than at any point in the polling record.

The 61% Figure: What It Masks

YouGov’s May 2026 climate tracker shows 61% of GB adults supporting the 2050 net zero target, 22% opposing it, and 17% unsure. The 61% figure is roughly stable since 2022, when it peaked at 68% during a period of public attention to extreme weather events. The slight decline from 68% to 61% over four years reflects growing cost-of-living pressures that have made some voters more resistant to policies they associate with higher energy bills, even while supporting the abstract goal.

The partisan breakdown of the 61% is where the political significance lies. Green voters support net zero at 88%, Labour at 79%, Lib Dems at 71%, Conservatives at 52%, and Reform voters at 29%. The Reform figure is the most politically consequential: 58% of Reform voters actively oppose net zero, making climate policy one of the strongest predictors of Reform identification alongside immigration. Reform voters are not just indifferent to climate policy; they are actively hostile to it.

The age breakdown shows an equally sharp generational divide: support for net zero is 78% among 18–34 year-olds, falling to 64% among 35–54 year-olds, and to 44% among over-65s. The over-65 group is the only demographic where those opposing net zero (37%) approach those supporting it (44%). This age-climate correlation is the mirror image of the age-Reform correlation, reflecting the same underlying political realignment driving multiple polling trends simultaneously.

Reform Voters and Climate: The Sceptic Coalition

The depth of climate scepticism among Reform voters is striking. Polling from Savanta in April 2026 found that 42% of Reform voters say climate change is not a serious threat to the UK — compared to 8% of the general population holding that view. A further 31% of Reform voters say climate change is real but exaggerated by scientists and the media. Only 27% of Reform voters agree with the mainstream scientific consensus that climate change poses a serious and urgent threat.

This translates into opposition to specific policies with particular intensity. 58% of Reform voters oppose net zero as a target, 64% oppose the planned ban on new petrol and diesel cars (compared to 38% of all voters), 71% oppose onshore and offshore wind farm expansion (compared to 54% support in the general population), and 78% oppose higher household energy bills to fund green infrastructure (compared to 31% of all voters). On every climate policy dimension, Reform voters are the most consistently opposed group in British politics.

Farage has explicitly positioned Reform as a climate-sceptic party, describing net zero as “the biggest threat to British living standards since the Second World War.” This rhetoric clearly energises the Reform base: among voters who say climate policy is their primary reason for choosing Reform, the party scores 91% approval for Farage’s leadership — higher than on any other issue. Climate scepticism functions as an identity marker for Reform voters, not just a policy preference.

The Green Surge and Climate Salience

At the other end of the spectrum, climate salience is the primary driver of the Green Party’s surge to 15%. Among voters who name climate as their single most important issue, the Greens lead with 44%, followed by Labour at 28% and Lib Dems at 14%. Reform scores 2% among climate-prioritising voters — a clean mirror image of Reform’s 38% among immigration-prioritising voters.

The Greens have benefited from Labour’s perceived retreat on climate commitments since entering government. Labour’s Clean Power 2030 target — already the subject of planning delays — has slipped to a projected 2031–32 delivery by independent assessors. The party approved a new North Sea licensing round in 2024, which attracted fierce criticism from environmental groups. And its planning reforms, while broadly pro-development, have been criticised for insufficiently weighting environmental protections against economic development priorities.

For the 18% of voters who name climate as a top-two concern, these perceived failures have pushed them toward the Greens as the only party they believe is credibly committed to the issue. This is a structural dynamic rather than a temporary protest: once a voter decides that climate is their primary issue and that Labour is insufficiently committed to it, switching back to Labour requires either a Labour policy change or a personal reassessment of priorities that is unlikely to occur during a single parliament.

Policy Popularity: What Climate Measures Voters Support

Not all climate policies are equal in public opinion. The most popular measures in 2026 polling are investment-focused rather than restriction-focused. Home insulation grants command 72% support, public transport investment 67%, offshore wind expansion 61%, and solar energy subsidies 64%. The consistent thread: policies that are framed as giving voters something — warmer homes, cheaper transport, cleaner energy — poll substantially better than policies framed as restricting or costing voters.

The least popular policies reflect the cost-of-living anxiety that underlies the partial erosion of headline net zero support. Gas boiler bans score only 44% support, road pricing 31%, mandatory EV charging infrastructure requirements on businesses 38%, and higher fuel duty 19%. The pattern is clear: abstract support for net zero does not translate into support for every individual policy associated with achieving it, particularly when those policies are associated with near-term costs.

The political implication for all parties is significant. Labour can maintain majority support for the net zero goal while facing majority opposition to specific delivery mechanisms. The Greens can energise their base on climate salience but face challenges when specific policy costs are foregrounded. Reform can mobilise its base against net zero broadly while potentially finding some climate investment policies (insulation, public transport) more popular than their overall anti-climate position might suggest.

Climate as a 2029 Election Battleground

Climate policy looks set to be one of the defining battlegrounds of the 2029 election. The polarisation between Reform and the Greens on the issue means that both parties have an incentive to make climate central to their campaigns: for the Greens, it drives their distinctiveness and appeals to their 15% coalition; for Reform, climate scepticism energises a base that sees net zero as a symbol of elite indifference to ordinary economic concerns.

For Labour and the Conservatives, climate is a more treacherous terrain. Both parties need to appeal to voters across the climate opinion spectrum. Labour must hold its climate-concerned left flank (currently drifting to the Greens) while not alienating Northern working-class voters who associate green policies with higher energy bills. The Conservatives must maintain their recently recovered moderate vote (which largely supports net zero) while not being outflanked on the right by Reform’s explicit climate scepticism. Neither task is straightforward, and the 22-point gap between Green and Reform voters on climate suggests that the space for centre-ground climate politics is narrowing rather than widening.

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