Pollster Profile
Deltapoll: Methodology, Accuracy & UK Voting Intention
Deltapoll is a British polling and market research firm founded by Joe Twyman and Rick Nye, two former senior executives from YouGov. The firm has built a strong reputation for methodological rigour and has consistently performed well in post-election accuracy assessments. While not the highest-volume producer in the UK polling market, Deltapoll’s figures are regarded as among the most carefully calibrated available.
For analysts and journalists tracking UK public opinion, Deltapoll occupies an important niche: a mid-size firm with demonstrably high accuracy and a principled approach to weighting that makes their figures a useful cross-check against the more prolific polling houses.
Who is Joe Twyman?
Joe Twyman is one of the most well-known figures in British political polling. Before co-founding Deltapoll, he spent more than a decade at YouGov where he served as Head of Political and Social Research. During that period, YouGov became the dominant force in UK political polling, and Twyman was centrally involved in developing their weighting and methodology frameworks.
He is a regular commentator on polling and public opinion in the British media, contributing expert analysis to broadcast and print outlets during election campaigns. His public profile gives Deltapoll unusual visibility for a firm of its size, and his commentary on polling methodology is widely cited in academic and journalistic discussions of polling accuracy.
Rick Nye, the other co-founder, brings significant research experience from the commercial and political sectors, giving Deltapoll depth across both political polling and wider public opinion research.
Deltapoll methodology
Deltapoll uses online panel methodology for its voting intention polling:
- Online panel: Respondents are recruited from a managed online panel. The panel is regularly refreshed to reduce “professional respondent” bias, a known issue in online polling.
- Sample size: Typically 1,000–1,500 GB adults per voting intention poll.
- Fieldwork: Usually runs for two to three days to allow sufficient coverage across demographic groups.
- Weighting: Weighted by age, gender, region, education, and 2024 General Election vote recall. Deltapoll applies additional weighting for social grade — a variable not all firms include — which affects the relative size of working-class and professional subgroups.
- Past vote recall: Like most UK pollsters, Deltapoll uses recalled vote from the most recent general election as a key weighting dimension. The 2024 election provides the current benchmark.
- Publication: Full data tables are published as required by British Polling Council membership.
Recent Deltapoll voting intention figures (May 2026)
Source: Deltapoll, May 2026. Figures rounded to nearest percent. GB adults.
Deltapoll accuracy record at UK general elections
Deltapoll has a relatively short but impressive accuracy record. The firm was founded in 2018, meaning they have contested two UK general elections — 2019 and 2024. In both cases, their final poll figures were closer to the actual result than the polling industry average.
| Election | Deltapoll final poll | Actual result | Avg. error (top 3 parties) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 UK General | Lab 36%, Con 23%, Ref 14% | Lab 34%, Con 24%, Ref 14% | ~1.0 pp — among best in market |
| 2019 UK General | Con 44%, Lab 33% | Con 44%, Lab 33% | ~0.5 pp — near-perfect on top two |
| 2021 Holyrood | SNP 50%, Con 22% | SNP 48%, Con 23% | ~1.5 pp — broadly accurate |
It is worth noting that 2019 was a relatively straightforward election to poll: the Conservative lead was large and consistent, giving pollsters less opportunity for divergence. The 2024 performance, where the result was closer and more fragmented across five parties, is a more meaningful test of accuracy.
Deltapoll house effects
Compared to firms such as Redfield & Wilton or Techne, Deltapoll tends to produce more centrist figures on Reform UK — neither as high as the outlier firms nor as low as some telephone-adjacent panels. Their Labour figures tend to track closely to the industry average, and their Conservative figures have historically been accurate within a narrow range.
The inclusion of social grade weighting is a distinguishing feature: firms that do not weight by social grade may inadvertently over-represent more educated, metropolitan respondents who are less likely to support certain parties. Deltapoll’s approach partially compensates for this.
Deltapoll’s wider research work
Beyond voting intention polling, Deltapoll conducts issue-based research on topics including immigration, the NHS, cost of living, and trust in institutions. This issue tracking data provides context for movements in voting intention figures: understanding why party support is shifting often requires looking beyond the headline VI numbers.
They also conduct private polling for political parties, think tanks, and media organisations — some of which is published, while other work remains confidential. This mixed public/private business model is common among UK mid-size polling firms.
Deltapoll and sub-group analysis
Deltapoll’s published crosstabs consistently show meaningful variation in voting intention across demographic subgroups. Age is the sharpest dividing line in current UK polling: in May 2026, Deltapoll data shows Reform UK with a clear lead among voters aged 55 and over, while Labour leads among voters under 40 and among residents of major cities. The Conservatives are weakest in their former strongholds among ABC1 voters under 50, reflecting a significant erosion of the coalition that delivered the 2019 majority.
Gender differences are also significant. Reform UK’s support skews heavily male — Deltapoll typically records the party running 8–12 points higher among men than women. Labour and the Lib Dems both show a small but consistent female lean. These gender gaps have widened since 2022 and represent one of the most discussed patterns in contemporary British polling.
For regional breakdown, see our dedicated Scotland polling page and the national regional crosstab data in the VI tracker.
Deltapoll leader approval data
Deltapoll periodically publishes approval rating data for the Prime Minister and main party leaders. Their leader approval figures for Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch, and Nigel Farage are included in our cross-firm leader approval tracker. Deltapoll’s approval figures tend to sit close to the cross-firm mean, reinforcing the sense that their methodology produces consistently calibrated rather than systematically skewed estimates.
How UKPollingData uses Deltapoll data
UKPollingData.com includes all published Deltapoll voting intention figures in our national polling average. Given their strong accuracy record, their figures carry full weight in our cross-firm average without any house-effect correction. Full details of our weighting approach are on the methodology page.
Compare Deltapoll against all other firms in the voting intention tracker. For context on methodology, see our explainer on how voting intention polls work. For more detail on Deltapoll’s co-founder, see the section on Joe Twyman above.